White Christmas 2019

[Weather-history]

8 hours ago, hillbilly said:

If you read it correctly the met office states it is 'More likely' that does not equate to actual factual events.Am sure we all have different perspectives on this.

You are more likely to get snow in some parts of the country at Easter, rather than at Christmas, particularly (but not exclusively) if it is an 'early' Easter (but this is unlikely to be true for northern Britain). Over the last 50 years or so, snow has often appeared in the summaries as affecting lowland areas, if only briefly: for example: 1958, 1965, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1977, 1978, 1982, 1983, 1986, 1994 and 1998. The event of 1983 is probably the one that stands out, and occurring in early April, it was not exactly an 'early-Easter'. Snowfall was significant at times, sufficient to disrupt transport in some places.

Thats true but if you think about it in order to make the claim "more likely" you have to have the actual events to back it up otherwise it unsubstantiated the claim.

It is notable in the last 30 years is that there have been a number of cold Decembers whilst there been few cold Marches and Aprils in the same period especially April and therefore snow in those two months has decreased and hence the chance of snow at Easter.

There hasn't been one April at least 1C below the 1961-90 average for the CET since the average came into existence whilst there have been 8 Decembers.

 

[Don]

14 hours ago, JeffC said:

I recall being out on a search for a chap who'd been reported missing early hours of Easter Sunday, looking back it was March 23rd 2008 I think. There was about 4" of snow when we started  about 7 am, it soon went mind as it warmed up fairly smartish.

Oh ruddy hell, I forgot about Easter 2008!

And then of course there was April 6th that year which gave a few inches of snow in the south.

Edited November 25, 2019 by Don

[damianslaw]

Thank goodness today isn't 25 December, a very miserable drab dank wet 24-26th period..

[Summer Sun]

Update 13: Slightly reduced chance.

Almost 80% of the way to the big day! Our countdown started at the beginning of September and it has taken a range of factors into account. However, even at this stage it remains much too early to be confident about the weather prospects for Christmas Day. Nonetheless, the thirteenth update makes a slight reduction to the percentage chance of snow in the north and south. 

The latest considerations are:

• A more mobile weather pattern becoming established during the middle third of December
• ECMWF monthly anomaly forecast

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

• North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14%
• South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 7%

The Computer says

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Wivenswold]

On 24/11/2019 at 15:59, Weather-history said:

How many white Easters have you seen compared to white Christmases? For my location and my experience, its a myth that snow is more likely to fall at Easter than Christmas. 

 

 

I've had four proper white Easters in my lifetime, 2 White Christmases, I'm near the warmest part of the North Sea so we have big season lag here. Heatwaves in May are frequently ruined with cold onshore breezes. 

[Summer Sun]

Update 14: Slightly reduced chance.

We're rapidly getting there. From Monday 9th December daily updates to the forecast begin as the big day comes into range of the GFS / GEFS computer models. However, even at this stage it remains too early to be confident about the weather prospects for Christmas Day. Nonetheless, the fourteenth update makes a slight reduction to the percentage chance of snow in the north and south. 

The latest considerations are:

• Little sign of deep cold air masses approaching the UK during the next couple of weeks
• A more mobile weather pattern becoming established during the middle third of December
• ECMWF monthly anomaly forecast

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

• North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 12%
• South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 6%

The Computer says

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the north
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

 

[Summer Sun]

Update 15: No change.

Daily updates have now begun, however it remains too early to be confident about the weather prospects for Christmas Day. The fifteenth update makes no change to the percentage chance of snow in the north and south. 

The latest considerations are:

• GFS / GEFS model data
• Little sign of deep cold air masses approaching the UK during the next couple of weeks
• A more mobile weather pattern becoming established during the middle third of December

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

• North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 12%
• South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 6%

The Computer says

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the north
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Northern Ireland
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Summer Sun]

Update 16: Increased chance.

Daily updates are not taking place, however it remains too early to be confident about the weather prospects for Christmas Day. The sixteenth update increases the percentage chance of snow in the north and south. 

The latest considerations are:

• A number of GEFS runs showing snow on Christmas Day
• GFS / GEFS model data 
• Little sign of deep cold air masses approaching the UK during the next couple of weeks

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

• North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14%
• South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%

The Computer says

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
• Cold conditions in Scotland are expected, marginal for rain or snow.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[damianslaw]

Happy with cold and dry conditions, but that is a odd computer program, why just cold and dry in midlands and republic of ireland and wales, and cold in scotland but too mild for snow in the north..

A computer that hasn't a clue it seems.

Alas I would be very very happy with a dry cold christmas day, a bit of frost would add a wintry touch as well.

We haven't had a cold christmas day since 2010, indeed we've had many a very mild christmas day since, and christmas week as a whole (24 th Dec - I Jan) has largely been dominated by wind rain and mild weather, with the occasional wintry spell (26-28 2004, 27-29 2017), but that's been it. We've been a very short straw over the last 8 christmas periods in this respect.

Hoping the atlantic burns itself out over the next 10 days, and that we see fortunes change just in time for christmas. 

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Happy with cold and dry conditions, but that is a odd computer program, why just cold and dry in midlands and republic of ireland and wales, and cold in scotland but too mild for snow in the north..

A computer that hasn't a clue it seems.

Alas I would be very very happy with a dry cold christmas day, a bit of frost would add a wintry touch as well.

We haven't had a cold christmas day since 2010, indeed we've had many a very mild christmas day since, and christmas week as a whole (24 th Dec - I Jan) has largely been dominated by wind rain and mild weather, with the occasional wintry spell (26-28 2004, 27-29 2017), but that's been it. We've been a very short straw over the last 8 christmas periods in this respect.

Hoping the atlantic burns itself out over the next 10 days, and that we see fortunes change just in time for christmas. 

It was similar during the 1980s. Many mild Christmases apart from 1981.

1990s and 2000s had more cold Christmases.

[Aleman]

[Summer Sun]

Update 20: No change.

Daily updates are now taking place, however it remains too early to be confident about the weather prospects for Christmas Day. The twentieth update makes no change to the percentage chance of snow. Current guidance is indicating the likelihood of an Atlantic flow which would probably be cold enough to only deliver snow to the Scottish mountains.   

The latest considerations are:

• GEFS snow row and temperature forecasts for Christmas Day
• GFS / GEFS model data 

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

• North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 16%
• South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 5%

The Computer says

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
• Snow is expected in Wales 
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the north
• Snow is expected in Scotland 
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Summer Sun]

Update 21: No change.

Daily updates are now taking place, however it remains too early to be confident about the weather prospects for Christmas Day. The twenty-first update makes no change to the percentage chance of snow. Current guidance is indicating the likelihood of an Atlantic flow which would probably be cold enough to only deliver snow to the Scottish mountains.   

The latest considerations are:

• ECM and GEM model data
• GEFS snow row and temperature forecasts for Christmas Day
• GFS / GEFS model data 

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

• North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 16%
• South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 5%

The Computer says

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Summer Sun]

Update 22: Reduction in the north.

Daily updates are taking place, however it remains too early to be confident about the weather prospects for Christmas Day. The twenty-second update makes a reduction to the percentage chance of snow in the north. Current guidance is indicating the likelihood of an Atlantic flow which would probably be cold enough to only deliver snow to the Scottish mountains.   

The latest considerations are:

• ECM and GEM model data
• GEFS snow row and temperature forecasts for Christmas Day
• GFS / GEFS model data 

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 12%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 5%

The Computer says

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[I remember Atlantic 252]

latest EC, SS, even Scotland green

[damianslaw]

Since 2010, only parts of Scotland in 2014 and late on in 2017 had what you could describe as even average temps on the 25th, elsewhere mild or very mild has been the order of the day.

Would not be surprised if we look at the stats to see 25th March recording colder maxima in years since 2010. For some reason christmas seems to coincide with the time of year when we are least likely to see colder than normal temps - or so it seems in recent year, just a quirk? mmm

Another date that has been perpetually mild it seems is New Years Day.

If christmas day was 25 January, then those white snowy scenes wouldn't feel so out of reach, or fantasy world really.

[hillbilly]

10 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Since 2010, only parts of Scotland in 2014 and late on in 2017 had what you could describe as even average temps on the 25th, elsewhere mild or very mild has been the order of the day.

Would not be surprised if we look at the stats to see 25th March recording colder maxima in years since 2010. For some reason christmas seems to coincide with the time of year when we are least likely to see colder than normal temps - or so it seems in recent year, just a quirk? mmm

Another date that has been perpetually mild it seems is New Years Day.

If christmas day was 25 January, then those white snowy scenes wouldn't feel so out of reach, or fantasy world really.

Did someone say just a few years ago that Summer solstice was colder than the winter solstice?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

17 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Since 2010, only parts of Scotland in 2014 and late on in 2017 had what you could describe as even average temps on the 25th, elsewhere mild or very mild has been the order of the day.

Would not be surprised if we look at the stats to see 25th March recording colder maxima in years since 2010. For some reason christmas seems to coincide with the time of year when we are least likely to see colder than normal temps - or so it seems in recent year, just a quirk? mmm

Another date that has been perpetually mild it seems is New Years Day.

If christmas day was 25 January, then those white snowy scenes wouldn't feel so out of reach, or fantasy world really.

That's my Nan's birthday! now she remembers real winters, living oop norf until 1983, and even here winters existed then

[Summer Sun]

Update 23: Slight reduction.

Daily updates are taking place, however it remains too early to be confident about the weather prospects for Christmas Day. The twenty-third update makes a small reduction to the percentage chance of snow in the north. Current guidance is indicating the likelihood of an Atlantic flow which would probably be cold enough to only deliver snow to high ground in the northern half of the UK.      

The latest considerations are:

• ECM and GEM model data
• GEFS snow row and temperature forecasts for Christmas Day
• GFS / GEFS model data 

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

• North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 11%
• South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 4%

The Computer says

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the north
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[damianslaw]

Thinking how the last 4 decades have panned out christmas weather wise, and interesting to note the similarities with the christmas eve - boxing day periods of the 80s and 10's compared to the 90's and 00's. 

Apart from Dec 81, Dec 10, no other christmas period produced an official white christmas or even anything notably cold - preety poor. Boxing Day 1985 and 2014 did produce some snowfall. Otherwise most christmas periods were either just average temp wise, or more the case mild/very mild.

Conversely the christmas periods of the 90s and 00s saw much more wintry fayre. There were quite a few cold and sometimes snowy christmas periods, 1992 cold and foggy and frosty, 1993 brought a white christmas, 1995 bitter cold and some heavy snow in Scotland, 1996 very cold and snow on the ground, 2000 cold christmas day and boxing day lots of frost, 2001 also the same, 2004 a white christmas for many, 2005 cold, 2006 cold and frosty, 2008 turned cold on Boxing Day, 2009 very cold with snow on ground.

Which camp will christmas 2019/2020 sit in, most likely the milder snowless variety, though may just see something colder arrive in the north at least to bring some seasonal frost - hope so! Dislike dank grey christmas days or those with incessant bouts of rain and gales.

[Summer Sun]

Update 24: Slight reduction.

Daily updates are taking place, however it remains too early to be confident about the weather prospects for Christmas Day. The twenty-fourth update makes a small reduction to the percentage chance of snow in the north. Current guidance is indicating the likelihood of an Atlantic flow which would probably be cold enough to only deliver snow to high ground in the northern half of the UK.     

The latest considerations are:

• ECM and GEM model data
• GEFS snow row and temperature forecasts for Christmas Day
• GFS / GEFS model data 

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

• North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10%
• South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 3%

The Computer says

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

Edited December 18, 2019 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Update 25: No change.

Daily updates are taking place, however it remains too early to be confident about the weather prospects for Christmas Day. The twenty-fifth update makes no change to the percentage chance of snow in the north. Current guidance is indicating the likelihood of high pressure building from the south across the UK.   

The latest considerations are:

• ECM and GEM model data
• GEFS snow row and temperature forecasts for Christmas Day
• GFS / GEFS model data 

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

• North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10%
• South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 3%

The Computer says

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the north
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Northern Ireland
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast 

[damianslaw]

Still hoping we might just about see a frost first thing christmas morning, and also later in the day, though the models are trending further away from a clear sky day, so the apt word for this christmas might be 'grey'.

The upcoming days don't promise much in the way of any sunshine for many, indeed here, we have none forecast for the foreseeable whatsoever, to make a very miserable scene indeed. Thank goodness we have christmas itself to brighten the mood, because the weather forecast is as drab as it gets, dank grey cloud shrouding everything, cold feel to things - temps here forecast to hold steady around 6-7 degree mark, can't see the fells at all - not good for SAD sufferers at the darkest time of the year.

Onwards and upwards though - the distractions of christmas and new year a very saving grace. Winter rarely gets going until after christmas.

[Summer Sun]

Update 26: Green Christmas called for most of the UK.

Daily updates are taking place, however it remains too early to be confident about the weather prospects for Christmas Day. The twenty-sixth update reduces the percentage chance of snow and calls a green Christmas for the vast majority of the UK. The only likely exception is high ground in the northern half of the UK where scattered showers could bring a mix of rain, sleet and snow.   

The latest considerations are:

• ECM and GEM model data
• GEFS snow row and temperature forecasts for Christmas Day
• GFS / GEFS model data 

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

• North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 6%
• South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 1%

The Computer says

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Summer Sun]

It doesn't even look like the high ground in Scotland will see snow this year.