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White Christmas 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Computer generated garbage. Cold but dry in Midlands and Scotland but too mild in between the two and surrounding these area.

most pointless forecast ever

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I believe that we’ll be under very cold polar maritime air even arctic maritime for North  and Scotland with a very pronounced northerly.  So I’m plumping for heavy snow for some and snow for many

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Update 10: Increased chance.

 

  • Over 60% of the way there already! The tenth update slightly increases the percentage chance of snow in the north and south. 

The latest considerations are:

 

  • Signs of very cold conditions developing to the northeast of the UK and a disrupted Atlantic flow.
  • Weather patterns through October and the first third of November.
  • Recent output from seasonal computer models. 

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

  • North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 16%
  • South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10%

The Computer says

  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
  • Snow is expected in Scotland 
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
51 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

Never snows at christmas? Suppose 26 white christmasses in the north and 10 in the south over the last 50 odd years = no snow does it?

I haven't had one since the 70's in london

Edited by lassie23
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

I lived by the south coast for over 30 years and never saw ONE white Christmas. In fact for a good few years barely any snow. The closest I have gotten to see actual falling snow in the run up was the great 2010 when there was still snow in the garden on Christmas day, when I had then moved to where I am now. Seen snow on boxing day in kent maybe in the 70's but it had fallen a while back, so I never saw it fall.

I think I will have a mild sunny christmas day. maybe a bit of frost. The usual.

Edited by Dami
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
3 hours ago, Stonethecrows said:

Pardon my pedantry but your comment again doesn't sound like never

it hardly ever never snows at christmas

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Update 11: Increased chance.

  • Not long now until the big day! The eleventh update reduces the percentage chance of snow in the north and south. 

The latest considerations are:

 

  • Signs of a transition to more mobile and milder conditions during late November and early December.
  • Weather patterns through October and the first half of November.
  • Recent output from seasonal computer models.  

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

  • North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14%
  • South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%
  • The Computer says

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south

  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
  • Snow is expected in Scotland 
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Update 11: Increased chance.

  • Not long now until the big day! The eleventh update reduces the percentage chance of snow in the north and south. 

The latest considerations are:

 

  • Signs of a transition to more mobile and milder conditions during late November and early December.
  • Weather patterns through October and the first half of November.
  • Recent output from seasonal computer models.  

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

  • North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14%
  • South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%
  • The Computer says

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south

  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
  • Snow is expected in Scotland 
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

What an odd update, too mild in the north, yet cold in the midlands and wales and snow in Scotland, can't think what synoptic would deliver this, perhaps a zonal flow with a bit of polar maritime air over Scotland but with a ridge of high pressure underneath centred over the centre of the UK, allowing for some colder frosty weather in a central swathe, the north too much influenced by the atlantic, and the south not directly under the high - but this isn't quite right really.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

What an odd update, too mild in the north, yet cold in the midlands and wales and snow in Scotland, can't think what synoptic would deliver this, perhaps a zonal flow with a bit of polar maritime air over Scotland but with a ridge of high pressure underneath centred over the centre of the UK, allowing for some colder frosty weather in a central swathe, the north too much influenced by the atlantic, and the south not directly under the high - but this isn't quite right really.

It's computer generated garbage. Garbage in, garbage out. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Update 12: No change.

 

  • Three quarters of the way there now and the big day is almost within reach of the ECMWF monthly computer model. The twelfth update makes no change to the percentage chance of snow in the north and south. 

The latest considerations are:

  • Increasing chance of cold weather in early December
  • ECMWF monthly anomaly forecast

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

  • North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14%
  • South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%

The Computer says

  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

The Computer says

  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
On 10/11/2019 at 14:36, lassie23 said:

It never snows at christmas, my forecast is 10c cloudy for the 24th, 25th and 26th

1. You live within the largest heat island in the UK, the London Basin. 
2. It's more likely to snow at Easter.
3. I don't think you'd be pleased if an Official White Christmas is triggered because it wouldn't necessarily mean there's snow on the ground. 
4. "It never snows at Christmas" is the sort of comment that invites derision. I've lived in the counties around London all my life and have had snow on the ground on Christmas day roughly 6 times, not including 1981, the last true White Christmas in East London where I lived at the time.
5. Always check your contentions against evidence which is easily available on the internet. I honestly don't know how some people would have coped in the days before the internet.
6. I think films and media depictions of White Christmases have made expectations unrealistic. This is not North America. 

So, the lesson here is that if you want a cooler summer with fewer thunderstorms, move up north and get more snow. If you want to live in the South and see more snow move outside the M25. Your summer temps are usually 3-4oC higher than mine and I'm only 50 miles from you. Them's the shakes. 

And yes, this snow watch is pointless at this stage. 

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
7 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:


2. It's more likely to snow at Easter.

4. "It never snows at Christmas" is the sort of comment that invites derision. I've lived in the counties around London all my life and have had snow on the ground on Christmas day roughly 6 times, not including 1981, the last true White Christmas in East London where I lived at the time.

How many white Easters have you seen compared to white Christmases? For my location and my experience, its a myth that snow is more likely to fall at Easter than Christmas. 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

How many white Easters have you seen compared to white Christmases? For my location and my experience, its a myth that snow is more likely to fall at Easter than Christmas. 

 

 

i can only remember 1 white easter

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

How many white Easters have you seen compared to white Christmases? For my location and my experience, its a myth that snow is more likely to fall at Easter than Christmas. 

 

 

If you read it correctly the met office states it is 'More likely' that does not equate to actual factual events.Am sure we all have different perspectives on this.

You are more likely to get snow in some parts of the country at Easter, rather than at Christmas, particularly (but not exclusively) if it is an 'early' Easter (but this is unlikely to be true for northern Britain). Over the last 50 years or so, snow has often appeared in the summaries as affecting lowland areas, if only briefly: for example: 1958, 1965, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1977, 1978, 1982, 1983, 1986, 1994 and 1998. The event of 1983 is probably the one that stands out, and occurring in early April, it was not exactly an 'early-Easter'. Snowfall was significant at times, sufficient to disrupt transport in some places.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
3 hours ago, lassie23 said:

i can only remember 1 white easter

I can remember at least 2, obviously it's more prevalent the earlier Easter falls

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
56 minutes ago, JeffC said:

I can remember at least 2, obviously it's more prevalent the earlier Easter falls

We had snow during the Easter holidays on April 5th 1989 and I think there was a little snow during the Easter holidays in 1988, too.  However, whilst snow did not actually fall on Easter Sunday those years, it was pretty close. 

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland

It looks real cold this December. No faith in seasonal zonal predictions

Wouldnt be relying on my Christmas presents from amazon or the big man.❄???????☃️

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Edited by icykev
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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland

White christmas for most❤???????

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
6 hours ago, Don said:

We had snow during the Easter holidays on April 5th 1989 and I think there was a little snow during the Easter holidays in 1988, too.  However, whilst snow did not actually fall on Easter Sunday those years, it was pretty close. 

I recall being out on a search for a chap who'd been reported missing early hours of Easter Sunday, looking back it was March 23rd 2008 I think. There was about 4" of snow when we started  about 7 am, it soon went mind as it warmed up fairly smartish.

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