White Christmas 2019

[Seasonality]

Needed a new one for this year. Here's the first post that @Summer Sun put at the end of last year's thread.

 

Quote

Update 5: Slightly increased chance.

A quarter of the way there already! The fifth update makes a slight increase to the percentage chance of snow in the north and south. 

The latest considerations are:

September weather patterns. Unsettled conditions have become established and there are signs of high pressure building to the north and west of the UK.

Recent output from seasonal computer models has generally been pointing towards a milder than average winter. Although seasonal models display a low skill level for the UK they are taken into account.  

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 9%

The Computer says

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

 

[Seasonality]

And here is update 7!

Update 7: Slightly reduced percentage chance.

Past a third of the way there! The seventh update suggests a slightly reduced percentage chance of snow in the north and south. 

The latest considerations are:

Seasonal forecast model updates suggesting a mild and Atlantic dominated winter is favoured.

October weather patterns. Unsettled conditions have continued.

Recent output from seasonal computer models has generally been pointing towards a milder than average winter. Although seasonal models display a low skill level for the UK they are taken into account.  

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%

Updates 1: 01/09/2019, 2: 08/09, 3: 15/09, 4: 22/09, 5: 29/09, 6: 06/10, 7: 13/10

The Computer says

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

Forecast issued 14/10/2019 07:18:35

Christmas Weather Forecast

WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM

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Will it be a White Christmas in Great Britain? Discussion weather forecast regularly updated between September and December 25th.

 

[booferking]

Long overdue last nationwide was 2010...

[Jake March-Jones]

Every single year I am desperate for at least a cold christmas... A complete white out would be heaven.... here we go again awishing this year.... I want a proper brutal code spell for the entire festive period.

 

Here's hoping! 

 

What does everyone else think will happen this christmas?

[cheshire snow]

11 minutes ago, Jake March-Jones said:

Every single year I am desperate for at least a cold christmas... A complete white out would be heaven.... here we go again awishing this year.... I want a proper brutal code spell for the entire festive period.

 

Here's hoping! 

 

What does everyone else think will happen this christmas?

Pure guess work at this range however my punt is a mild Christmas followed by an Early January Freeze 

C.S

[Jake March-Jones]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Pure guess work at this range however my punt is a mild Christmas followed by an Early January Freeze 

C.S

Yeah...typical mild is more than likely... but can we at least dream a little? Haha! Been quite a while since we had a cold christmas so we are due one!

[Paul]

The Santa shaker will be back at the beginning of November

Christmas Weather Forecast - White Xmas 2018

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

[Jake March-Jones]

Just now, Paul said:

The Santa shaker will be back at the beginning of November

Christmas Weather Forecast - White Xmas 2018

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

Yaaaaay things get real when this shows up! Every morning on my commute I shake santa (Ooooeeer) and check TWO, along with metcheck (Sorry) haha

I will keep hoping!

[V for Very Cold]

Yikes! Just over 2 weeks to the Santa Shaker! Better start working on the Xmas list lol

[Katrine Basso]

I would love to see snow falling on Christmas Day.

[V for Very Cold]

10 minutes ago, Katrine Basso said:

I would love to see snow falling on Christmas Day.

I know what you mean... hoping to see some in Prague this Christmas! 

[matt111]

23 minutes ago, Katrine Basso said:

I would love to see snow falling on Christmas Day.

I live in hope... ❄

Never happens though. 

[Jake March-Jones]

19 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

I know what you mean... hoping to see some in Prague this Christmas! 

Yeah...I think in Prague you've a decent chance 

[Jake March-Jones]

38 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

Yikes! Just over 2 weeks to the Santa Shaker! Better start working on the Xmas list lol

I've started to put my playlist together Haha 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Jake March-Jones said:

What does everyone else think will happen this christmas?

My best guess is mild and wet as others have said is typical.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Jake March-Jones said:

Every single year I am desperate for at least a cold christmas... A complete white out would be heaven.... here we go again awishing this year.... I want a proper brutal code spell for the entire festive period.

 

Here's hoping! 

 

What does everyone else think will happen this christmas?

Aye, my guess is mild and wet, with a record being broken somewhere, either for mildness, wetness or wind gusts

[Sunny76]

I’m going to predict it will be actually the coldest and driest since 2010, and possibly rival 1995 and 1981. But, it will be a dry cold and grey Christmas Day, followed by a sunny cold Boxing Day. 

This will be followed by a new year cold snowy 2-3 day spell. 

[Sunny76]

And people laugh at my last comment, but you never know

[Weather-history]

13 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

And people laugh at my last comment, but you never know

Coldest since 2010 wouldn't that be hard to achieve given that it only has to be 4.7C to do it.

Edited October 15, 2019 by Weather-history

[MattStoke]

22 hours ago, booferking said:

Long overdue last nationwide was 2010...

Even that wasn't technically a white Christmas for most as snow has to actually fall on the day for it to count as a white Christmas but most of that snow had fallen a few days beforehand.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2004 here was last true white Xmas

[hillbilly]

Little chance,just remember it is more likely to snow at Easter than Xmas.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, hillbilly said:

Little chance,just remember it is more likely to snow at Easter than Xmas.

Aye, Xmas is too westerly, Easter is nearly always northerlies or easterlies

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Northerly regime for December, Deep storm activity for Christmas.....70/30 Scotland / NI....40% for Midlands / South my early guestimate

 

BFTP

[booferking]

49 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Even that wasn't technically a white Christmas for most as snow has to actually fall on the day for it to count as a white Christmas but most of that snow had fallen a few days beforehand.

If i look out my front door and see 8 inches of snow on the ground like that morning in 2010 i know what i will be calling it.