Climate Questions

[GSP]

On 06/02/2020 at 16:12, GSP said:

Thank you for your reply.

Interesting you say we should expect increased temps with cleaner air in the near term. Is that message out there for Joe Public as I am sure some maybe expecting instant results through reducing omissions.

And they might want to know want 'near term' means as in duration as this could be 10 years, 50 years in man terms. 50 years of sustained warming through having cleaner air actually may put us near the precipice.

I suspect Joe Public would be horrified to hear through having cleaner air means sustained higher temps increasing at a faster rate for the near term (whatever that is, 10 years, 20 years, a 100 years ?!). We will breach that precipice more quickly through our actions of reduced emissions!

Not a message that is wanted out there but what one should be the statement on this as the current message is a lie.

Cleaner air will warm the climate even faster. Not many will like that message, but that is the reality.

 

 

[andreas]

Hi - I'm not sure if this is the right thread for this, so please feel free to delete/move. But I rather grimly wonder when we have synoptic patterns like today's that deliver only rain whether these are events that fifty years (or even thirty years) ago would have brought low level snow. Obviously it's never possible to give definitive answers but I'd be interested in views on which all-rain events (for low ground) over recent years would have been most likely to have delivered snow in the past. Thanks

Edited December 3, 2020 by andreas

[BornFromTheVoid]

7 minutes ago, andreas said:

Hi - I'm not sure if this is the right thread for this, so please feel free to delete/move. But I rather grimly wonder when we have synoptic patterns like today's that deliver only rain whether these are events that fifty years (or even thirty years) ago would have brought low level snow. Obviously it's never possible to give definitive answers but I'd be interested in views on which all-rain events (for low ground) over recent years would have been most likely to have delivered snow in the past. Thanks

Interestingly, @Singularity put out an article today dealing with this issue, at least partially. Might be worth a read.

High Sensitivity of Snow to Climate Change in Temperate Maritime Climates - Metswift

WWW.METSWIFT.COM

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In ocean-driven climates, winter snowfall responds strongly to even slight warming. Not even mountains are immune, as the...

 

[Sky Full]

On 03/12/2020 at 12:34, andreas said:

Hi - I'm not sure if this is the right thread for this, so please feel free to delete/move. But I rather grimly wonder when we have synoptic patterns like today's that deliver only rain whether these are events that fifty years (or even thirty years) ago would have brought low level snow. Obviously it's never possible to give definitive answers but I'd be interested in views on which all-rain events (for low ground) over recent years would have been most likely to have delivered snow in the past. Thanks

This report by the BBC implies that the warming trend will continue.....unless emissions are reduced worldwide that is.

Climate change: Snowy UK winters could become thing of the past

Climate change: Snowy UK winters could become thing of the past

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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By the 2040s most of southern England may no longer get sub-zero days, new Met...

 

[Mucka]

Last month the BBC told me I wouldn't see snow again due to climate change.

They said the same in 2016 as The Independent did over 20 years ago.

The first 10 days of 2021 will be the coldest in well over a century.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Last month the BBC told me I wouldn't see snow again due to climate change.

They said the same in 2016 as The Independent did over 20 years ago.

The first 10 days of 2021 will be the coldest in well over a century.

I must've missed all those!

[BornFromTheVoid]

15 hours ago, Mucka said:

Last month the BBC told me I wouldn't see snow again due to climate change.

They said the same in 2016 as The Independent did over 20 years ago.

The first 10 days of 2021 will be the coldest in well over a century.

So, I moved this into the climate questions thread, so we can treat these statements as "why are we seeing cold and snow now when these articles claimed we'd never see snow again due to climate change?"

The first step here, is I'll ask you to provide the sources for all your claims, then highlight the particular sections of them that support your statements. If you can do that, we can examine the accuracy of the articles and, if needed, the scientific research underpinning them (if they were based on research.)
I think it could be a useful exercise!

[Downburst]

Of course they didn't that, they discussed the average coldest day in winter and extrapolated what predicted warming would mean for the average coldest day, the likes of the Daily Mail and the Sun took it and ran with it for the more educated types.

 

"

The average coldest day in the UK over the past three decades was -4.3 Celsius.

If emissions continue to accelerate, leading to a global temperature rise of 4C, then the average coldest day in the UK would remain above 0 Celsius across most of the country throughout winter.

Even if global emissions are reduced dramatically and world temperatures rise by 2C, the average coldest day in the UK is likely be 0 Celsius."https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55179603

[Snipper]

On 11/01/2021 at 09:20, BornFromTheVoid said:

So, I moved this into the climate questions thread, so we can treat these statements as "why are we seeing cold and snow now when these articles claimed we'd never see snow again due to climate change?"

The first step here, is I'll ask you to provide the sources for all your claims, then highlight the particular sections of them that support your statements. If you can do that, we can examine the accuracy of the articles and, if needed, the scientific research underpinning them (if they were based on research.)
I think it could be a useful exercise!

As it has been a bit chilly for a while recently now, compared for many previous years, how do we reconcile this anomaly?

[ANYWEATHER]

It's not very often I come on this Place,  But Co2 does not cause extreme weather ........If you want me to give you guys historical data to show this please let me know...Cheers Ian.....!

[BornFromTheVoid]

19 hours ago, Snipper said:

As it has been a bit chilly for a while recently now, compared for many previous years, how do we reconcile this anomaly?

For January, despite brutal cold in some parts of the world and a La Nina currently, it was still the 6th warmest on record for the planet.
If we get lots of northerly and easterly winds in winter, we will get below average temperatures. Weather will still cause a mix of positive and negative temperature anomalies, but the average temperature over multiple decades will still be climbing. That's what we see even in the UK, or using the CET data for instance.

[BornFromTheVoid]

16 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

It's not very often I come on this Place,  But Co2 does not cause extreme weather ........If you want me to give you guys historical data to show this please let me know...Cheers Ian.....!

In a literal sense you're correct. CO2 itself doesn't cause extreme weather directly. But through the GhG effect, the warming and related changes are believed to contribute to increases in some extremes weather events.
So, assuming what you meant is that global warming isn't causing changes to extreme weather, we can start trying to understand your reasoning.

First off, do you think that CO2 even causes warming? Secondly, do you think that climate scientists haven't analysed historical weather data?

[ANYWEATHER]

On 12/02/2021 at 14:49, BornFromTheVoid said:

In a literal sense you're correct. CO2 itself doesn't cause extreme weather directly. But through the GhG effect, the warming and related changes are believed to contribute to increases in some extremes weather events.
So, assuming what you meant is that global warming isn't causing changes to extreme weather, we can start trying to understand your reasoning.

First off, do you think that CO2 even causes warming? Secondly, do you think that climate scientists haven't analysed historical weather data?

Hello I don't believe in anyway that C02 causes warming...historically speaking in Earth's history C02 was much higher than now which coincided with much  a colder climate and on the other side of the coin lower C02 levels resulted in higher global temperatures. Climate scientists have not analysed any historical data .The propaganda train including the media have fooled people....C02 is good for the planet....Its Overpopulation that is the problem. ....

[BornFromTheVoid]

11 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hello I don't believe in anyway that C02 causes warming...historically speaking in Earth's history C02 was much higher than now which coincided with much  a colder climate and on the other side of the coin lower C02 levels resulted in higher global temperatures. Climate scientists have not analysed any historical data .The propaganda train including the media have fooled people....C02 is good for the planet....Its Overpopulation that is the problem. ....

It's the basic laws of science (chemistry, optics, etc) that say CO2 causes warming, something that was recognised over 100 years ago and accept by even the most ardent climate science "sceptics" (what they question are the magnitude of feedbacks that produce additional warming). This is supported by every national and international scientific organization on Earth as well as 10s of thousands of experts on the subject.

CO2 is not the only factor governing the global temperature. Using your example, historically CO2 has been much higher and the Earth cooler. At the time of the early Earth, the sun was much more faint so high levels of GhGs were needed to stop the planet from freezing over then. Nowadays, the sun is 1.4 times brighter so less CO2 is required because of the greater solar output. How do we know about past weather and climate states? How do we know about natural climate drivers? Because of climate scientists, the same scientists that are telling us that our carbon emission are causing warming now.

The evidence all points to a large scale propaganda effort, beginning in the 1970/80s, on behalf of polluting industries (the richest on Earth) to convince people that the science is uncertain/communist/gravy-train scientists and such silly notions. An industry's only duty is to protect their profits and so they had to fight back against any potential regulations, which meant preventing public support for such regulations. The media has largely supported industry propaganda in this endeavour, though mostly the right-wing media in the last 2 decades.
Think about it. Could climate scientists really take on the worlds most powerful and wealthy industries in a propaganda battle?

Anywho, there is literally no science out there that says CO2 does not cause warming, only the ramblings of non-experts on blogs and propaganda outlets.

[Methuselah]

11 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hello I don't believe in anyway that C02 causes warming...historically speaking in Earth's history C02 was much higher than now which coincided with much  a colder climate and on the other side of the coin lower C02 levels resulted in higher global temperatures. Climate scientists have not analysed any historical data .The propaganda train including the media have fooled people....C02 is good for the planet....Its Overpopulation that is the problem. ....

And by what mechanism(s) do you suggest overpopulation is doing that?

[dec10snow]

Morning all,

Not sure it if there’s a better thread for it or not but a very interesting read;

An unusual Ocean anomaly is being detected in the Gulf Stream, not seen in at least 150 years, bearing importance as we face the next weather seasons

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

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United States and Europe are strongly influenced by Gulf Stream, where an unusually strong anomaly is being detected in the Ocean

 

[johnholmes]

On 13/02/2021 at 22:01, ANYWEATHER said:

Hello I don't believe in anyway that C02 causes warming...historically speaking in Earth's history C02 was much higher than now which coincided with much  a colder climate and on the other side of the coin lower C02 levels resulted in higher global temperatures. Climate scientists have not analysed any historical data .The propaganda train including the media have fooled people....C02 is good for the planet....Its Overpopulation that is the problem. ....

Give some dates and facts to support this. To be blunt what you say is almost total twaddle, forgive me for being blunt.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Wasn't sure what thread to put this in, long thread with this tweet but something which I wish more would acknowledge rather than try to say its a full story of warming which is incorrect as these record cold events still happen each year around the world 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

30 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Wasn't sure what thread to put this in, long thread with this tweet but something which I wish more would acknowledge rather than try to say its a full story of warming which is incorrect as these record cold events still happen each year around the world 

 

The relevant experts in the area (Judah Cohen, Jennifer Francis, James Screen, etc (Maue is not one)) have been quite active lately on social media discussing their perspectives. There's a pretty healthy debate at the moment about how much of the recent cold outbreaks can be linked to climate change. It can sound a bit counterintuitive (warming causing regional cold), which means a lot of people get frustrated and assume somebody is lying.
It basically comes down to the effects of Arctic amplification (accelerated warming in the Arctic relative to the rest of the planet) and the different mechanisms by which this alters the jet stream and the stratospheric vortex. It's an area of active research and debate at the moment.

One of the main mechanisms is through the strong loss of sea ice and warm SSTs through Autumn in the Kara and Barents Seas. This is linked to increased Ural blocking and increased Siberian snow cover, which also occurred during Autumn, which is then tied to a greater chance of SSW events. These features were highlighted by Judah Cohen and others as likely to increase the chances of a SSW and cold outbreaks before winter (I also included it on a blog post here)

It's not entirely accurate to place full blame of recent cold outbreaks solely on climate/Arctic change, but it's also inaccurate to dismiss the idea out of hand too. These things can never be said with certainty, but only in terms of probabilities

[Nick L]

On 13/02/2021 at 22:01, ANYWEATHER said:

Hello I don't believe in anyway that C02 causes warming...historically speaking in Earth's history C02 was much higher than now which coincided with much  a colder climate and on the other side of the coin lower C02 levels resulted in higher global temperatures. Climate scientists have not analysed any historical data .The propaganda train including the media have fooled people....C02 is good for the planet....Its Overpopulation that is the problem. ....

Thankfully, the science doesn't care about what you believe in.

[Derecho]

7 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Wasn't sure what thread to put this in, long thread with this tweet but something which I wish more would acknowledge rather than try to say its a full story of warming which is incorrect as these record cold events still happen each year around the world 

 

There may be perhaps something in this but I'm not entirely sure. I do believe an SSW caused what we are seeing but how will it be affected by climate change? Perhaps BFTV is right in the explanation above however,

The way that I look at things at the moment, is that it's without dispute that CO2 emissions are warming the planet and we see this in the global temperature record. How this extra heat is distributed around this planet of ours is dependant on what the atmospheric circulation does.

Throw in a very extreme atmospheric circulation pattern across the northern hemisphere and you can still get extreme cold spots, though this will be more then cancelled out by areas of warmth, especially in the summer when you don't have the continually cooling continents when the supply of milder air from the Atlantic is cut off.

How much does atmospheric circulation vary and how will the extra heat be distributed via the atmospheric circulation? These are the key questions and not whether anthropogenic climate change is real, as a certain poster alludes to above (not you Kirkcaldy Weather!)

Edited February 18, 2021 by Quicksilver1989

[Northernlights]

Just a question from an amateur observer but soon after 9/11 i saw a before and after photo online showing a brown ring  (air and ground pollution) at the edge of earths atmosphere.This was taken from space and the after photo showed a bright white ring .Would I be right in  assuming that  radiated heat would be reflected back to earth by the particles in the brown ring and radiated heat would escape into space through the  cleaner white ring especially in the Northern Hemisphere long nights of winter  possibly making this winter in the Northern Hemisphere a bit cooler.

[Snipper]

Observations? Probably coincide with the magnetic poles flipping.

Climate change has weakened the Gulf Stream System 'close to tipping point' | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

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Known formally as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), it is the driving force which brings warm water from the Gulf of Mexico up to the UK.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

On 26/02/2021 at 14:48, Snipper said:

Observations? Probably coincide with the magnetic poles flipping.

Climate change has weakened the Gulf Stream System 'close to tipping point' | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

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Known formally as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), it is the driving force which brings warm water from the Gulf of Mexico up to the UK.

 

It's an interesting study, noting a long term decline that has accelerated since mid-20th century. They still think it's many more decades away from slowing to the point where it become unstable.
The cause isn't entirely clear either (though previous related studies have suggested fresh meltwater from Greenland is a major driver), so we'll need to wait for further studies for clarification.

[knocker]

I think maybe the jury is still out on this

A 30-year reconstruction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows no decline

OS.COPERNICUS.ORG

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<p><strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> A decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength has been observed between 2004 and 2012 by the...