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BornFromTheVoid

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
On 22/03/2021 at 02:23, Greyhound81 said:

I know that aerosols are considered to be bad for the environment, but as they have a colling effect, could they be used to slow down global warming?  If the various clean air acts had not been passed, would the planet be cooler today? 

 

Hi @Greyhound81, welcome to the forum!
You are correct about their cooling effect, a term called global dimming. And yes, the planet would probably be a little cooler if many of the clear air acts hadn't come into play, and if coal use continued to grow. Some geoengineering proposals involve injecting aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect more sunlight too. In fact, there are plans to test this method on a small scale in Sweden soon (link below)
However, the regional effects of geoengineering are uncertain and it couldn't prevent the other -ve effects of our CO2 emissions, such as ocean acidification. Also, as soon as you stop producing enough aerosols, warming would come roaring back!

5462.jpg?width=1200&height=630&quality=8
WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

Swedish environmental groups warn test flight could be first step towards the adoption of a potentially “dangerous, unpredictable, and unmanageable” technology

 

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

Bad news for the future generations in the trouser department 

 

WWW.MSN.COM

Penises are shrinking and genitals becoming malformed because of pollution, an environmental scientist has warned in a new book detailing the challenges facing human reproduction.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
3 hours ago, D.V.R said:

Bad news for the future generations in the trouser department 

 

WWW.MSN.COM

Penises are shrinking and genitals becoming malformed because of pollution, an environmental scientist has warned in a new book detailing the challenges facing human reproduction.

 

Those sat behind the barricades are truly 'dickless'.......explains a lot to me!

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Just now, General Cluster said:

Quite possibly not. But, that's nae the point, is it? Global temperatures are rising, irrespective of volcanoes. Was the cold summer of 1993 a direct result of Mt. Pinatubo? I don't know. But' I'd bet the funny-coloured sun was??

Sorry cos I know BFTV is right, but one final comment on this from me.... but are global temperatures rising to the degree they are (not doubted by me) because of the relative lack of volcanic activity?  In other words would the rises we are seeing now have been activated in the late 19th century had it had as little volcanic activity as the 20th century saw?

Back on CET...
We had three Aprils with a mean CET of  6.2C in the five years from 1887.......not something I'd be wishing for now!!
 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
18 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Well that put me in my place!
 

What exactly is "it" supposed to be in this context?  I know the explosions of Mount Tambora  in 1815 and Krakatau’ in 1883 were supposed to have had an impact on the climate worldwide.  Perhaps as a climate scientist you could clarify whether or not it did?  And if they did reduce temperatures, does that mean the world would be warmer by the amount they did, if the explosions had not taken place?  Or, alternatively,if such explosions had taken place in the similar stages of the 20th century, would the earth still be as warm as it is now? 
 

For Tambora global temperatures may have dropped by about 2C which is a huge amount, though this was a VEI 7 scale eruption. Krakatoa did cause a drop in global temperatures but the impact here was less marked. It was a VEI 6 so the drop was only 0.6C in comparison. The sulphur emissions have a reduced residence time in the atmosphere. After Pinatubo, global temperatures jumped back up above previous levels in 1994 once the effects of the sulphur on global temperatures wore off. CO2 has a residence time of 5 years but upon leaving the atmosphere it just swaps its place with CO2 in the oceans, so the extra co2 stays there for centuries.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Alright @Timmytour and @Quicksilver1989, ye can keep the convo going here.

I'll try to respond later this evening if I have time. But an important consideration about Greenhouse Gasses (GhGs)

We know the warming is caused by GhGs because of how they interact with specific wavelengths of light. GhGs absorb and emit longwave (LW) radiation at certain frequencies which can be measured at the surface and in space. Shortwave radiation (sunlight) hits the surface, warms it and emits LW radiation (heat) back up. The GhGs then absorb certain parts of that LW radiation and re-emit a portion of it back to the surface. This increases the downwelling LW radiation and this increase has been observed by instruments at the surface. Conversely, because more of the LW radiation is being absorbed by the extra GhGs and sent back to the surface, there is less leaving the atmosphere and into space. This has also been observed by satellites. This is clear empirical evidence. We can even work out the energy balance of the planet (how much is going in vs going out) and we know there is a big imbalance currently caused specifically by GhGs.
There are many other lines of evidence too, but to be clear, there is 100% no doubt that the warming is caused by GhG increases. Human driven climate change is as certain among climate scientists and evolution is among biologists.


For most of the "well have they considered" type questions - yes, they almost certainly have been considered and there is likely hundreds of papers on the topic.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Will global warming ‘stop’ as soon as net-zero emissions are reached?

Media reports frequently claim that the world is facing “committed warming” in the future as a result of past emissions, meaning higher temperatures are “locked in”, “in the pipeline” or “inevitable”, regardless of the choices society takes today.

The best available evidence shows that, on the contrary, warming is likely to more or less stop once carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reach zero, meaning humans have the power to choose their climate future.

When scientists have pointed this out recently, it has been reported as a new scientific finding. However, the scientific community has recognised that zero CO2 emissions likely implied flat future temperatures since at least 2008. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2018 special report on 1.5C also included a specific focus on zero-emissions scenarios with similar findings. 

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached?utm_campaign=Carbon Brief Weekly Briefing&utm_content=20210430&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue Weekly

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

How the rise and fall of CO2 levels influenced the ice ages

The Earth’s climate has been quite stable over the past 11,000 years, playing an important role in the development of human civilisation. 

Prior to that, the Earth experienced an ice age lasting for tens of thousands of years. The past million years of the Earth’s history has been characterised by a series of ice ages broken up by relatively short periods of warmer temperatures.

These ice ages are triggered and ended by slow changes in the Earth’s orbit. But changing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 also plays a key role in driving both cooling during the onset of ice ages and warming at their end. 

The global average temperature was around 4C cooler during the last ice age than it is today. There is a real risk that, if emissions continue to rise, the world warms more this century than it did between the middle of the last ice age 20,000 years ago and today. 

In this explainer, Carbon Brief explores how the last ice age provides strong evidence of the role CO2 plays as a “control knob” for the Earth’s climate. It also acts as a cautionary tale of how the climate can experience large changes from relatively small outside “forcings”.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-the-rise-and-fall-of-co2-levels-influenced-the-ice-ages

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Earth's largest water reservoirs: How much ice are they losing?

By Helen Amanda Fricker and Fiamma Straneo, opinion contributors — 06/09/21 07:00 PM EDT

The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the view of The Hill

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/557655-earths-largest-water-reservoirs-how-much-ice-are-they-losing

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
On 23/03/2021 at 11:03, BornFromTheVoid said:

Hi @Greyhound81, welcome to the forum!
You are correct about their cooling effect, a term called global dimming. And yes, the planet would probably be a little cooler if many of the clear air acts hadn't come into play, and if coal use continued to grow. Some geoengineering proposals involve injecting aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect more sunlight too. In fact, there are plans to test this method on a small scale in Sweden soon (link below)
However, the regional effects of geoengineering are uncertain and it couldn't prevent the other -ve effects of our CO2 emissions, such as ocean acidification. Also, as soon as you stop producing enough aerosols, warming would come roaring back!

5462.jpg?width=1200&height=630&quality=8
WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

Swedish environmental groups warn test flight could be first step towards the adoption of a potentially “dangerous, unpredictable, and unmanageable” technology

 

I am in no way qualified to comment on this subject but in my unqualified opinion, the idea of introducing pollutants into the atmosphere to reduce the temperature at the earths surface doesn’t make sense for another reason.  I would suggest that this strategy would reduce the amount of light reaching the surface, which in turn would reduce the ability of plant life to grow as efficiently as it does now, and plant life is one of the main captors of C02.  The overall effect would be to reduce the ability of plants to absorb C02 allowing the extra C02 to cancel out any cooling effect of the pollutants.  The only way to reverse global warming is to reduce our output of C02 (imo).

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Posted
  • Location: Bempton, Bridlington, East Riding. 78m ASL
  • Location: Bempton, Bridlington, East Riding. 78m ASL

One thing which I have tried to look for but cant really find any information on is the effect of climate change on prevailing wind patterns. I have a perception that over my memory (50 years ish interest in things Meteorological) we get more winds with an 'easterly' component now (SE E NE). Obviously this is going to have an impact on local climate, and things like orthographic rainfall. Is there any data to back this perception up?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
On 12/08/2021 at 11:43, mike57 said:

One thing which I have tried to look for but cant really find any information on is the effect of climate change on prevailing wind patterns. I have a perception that over my memory (50 years ish interest in things Meteorological) we get more winds with an 'easterly' component now (SE E NE). Obviously this is going to have an impact on local climate, and things like orthographic rainfall. Is there any data to back this perception up?

I'm reading through the IPCC report atm, so I'll have a look for anything related to prevailing mid-latitude winds over the next few days (so findings around the jet stream, storm tracks, blocking, etc).

It might be difficult to find a sustained human fingerprint on any changes around the UK, as winds here are influenced by many other natural modes of variability (think ENSO, AMO, solar, etc), but I'll post up whatever I come across.

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Posted
  • Location: Bempton, Bridlington, East Riding. 78m ASL
  • Location: Bempton, Bridlington, East Riding. 78m ASL
2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

I'm reading through the IPCC report atm, so I'll have a look for anything related to prevailing mid-latitude winds over the next few days (so findings around the jet stream, storm tracks, blocking, etc).

It might be difficult to find a sustained human fingerprint on any changes around the UK, as winds here are influenced by many other natural modes of variability (think ENSO, AMO, solar, etc), but I'll post up whatever I come across.

It would be interesting to see if there is anything to back up my 'feeling'. Looking back to when I first became interested in meteorology I know that we have less snow events and more heat wave events now than in say mid to late 1960's. Everyone talks about the summer of 1976, but that was an outlier, temperatures above 30C were quite unusual at that time and earlier, now we get them most years, more than once. Rainfall events are trickier, I suspect that technology means we now get to hear about local events where as in the 1970's they would not have been reported beyond the local paper. I can remember one summer in around 1970 there were some huge thunderstorms that caused flash flooding in the villages of Upper Wensleydale, but they never made the national press, where as now they probably would.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Does anyone know how important this one is?

grl.v47.15.cover.jpg
AGUPUBS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM

Atlantification of the Barents Sea and Fram Strait is documented using the ECCOv4-r3 ocean state estimate Mechanisms driving the warming trends along Atlantic water pathways are regionally dependen...

Cheers @BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
WWW.MSN.COM

Whether it’s Meghan and Harry limiting themselves to two children, or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez discussing the “legitimate” concern of parenting through climate catastrophe, the ethical question of...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL

Ok.  someone please help me here.  What is “Climate Breakdown”?  
 

3500.jpg?width=1200&height=630&quality=8
WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

Analysis: why the UK is bracing for a second winter storm and where it is coming from

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
On 07/12/2021 at 22:03, snefnug said:

Ok.  someone please help me here.  What is “Climate Breakdown”?  
 

3500.jpg?width=1200&height=630&quality=8
WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

Analysis: why the UK is bracing for a second winter storm and where it is coming from

 

I'm not sure if it's technically defined anywhere, but in general it means a transition away from previous normal climate/weather patterns to new ones.

In the case of these 2 storms, they were unusual in some regards (the extremely rapid deepening of Barra, the direction of Arwen) but not a sign of a climate breakdown.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
On 08/12/2021 at 08:38, BornFromTheVoid said:

I'm not sure if it's technically defined anywhere, but in general it means a transition away from previous normal climate/weather patterns to new ones.

In the case of these 2 storms, they were unusual in some regards (the extremely rapid deepening of Barra, the direction of Arwen) but not a sign of a climate breakdown.

Thank you very much for the answer BFTV.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
On 07/12/2021 at 22:03, snefnug said:

Ok.  someone please help me here.  What is “Climate Breakdown”?  
 

3500.jpg?width=1200&height=630&quality=8
WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

Analysis: why the UK is bracing for a second winter storm and where it is coming from

 

Another Scaremongering terminology from the media. If you look back at history which I'm afraid A lot of times these "Mediatic Fish" don't bother looking at ,you will see there is nothing unusual  in the weather we have had recently....☺

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
On 11/12/2021 at 09:45, ANYWEATHER said:

Another Scaremongering terminology from the media. If you look back at history which I'm afraid A lot of times these "Mediatic Fish" don't bother looking at ,you will see there is nothing unusual  in the weather we have had recently....☺

It's a commonly used term, just not technically defined. Also, the article comes to the conclusion that it's not related to climate change, so none of it is scaremongering.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
_122087979_gettyimages-1234239498.jpg
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

The highest temperature recorded in the region last year - 38C (100F) - is officially confirmed.

 

WHY DOES FALLACIOUS PROPAGANDA LIKE THIS GET PEDDLED 24/7 IF THERE IS A REAL CLIMATE CRISIS TO REPORT ON?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
On 14/12/2021 at 17:01, Mucka said:
_122087979_gettyimages-1234239498.jpg
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

The highest temperature recorded in the region last year - 38C (100F) - is officially confirmed.

 

WHY DOES FALLACIOUS PROPAGANDA LIKE THIS GET PEDDLED 24/7 IF THERE IS A REAL CLIMATE CRISIS TO REPORT ON?

Hi Mucka, thought I'd move this in here and treat it like a question.

So, as someone that has a PhD related to Arctic climate change, and curious to see why you think this is fallacious.
Also, as a huge Noam Chomsky fan, I have a strong interest in propaganda, and even agree that the BBC spreads a lot of it. Still, I'd like to know why you think this particular piece is propaganda.

If we can establish that this is false, and propaganda, then we can start to analyse why this kind of stuff gets pushed.

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
On 14/12/2021 at 18:07, BornFromTheVoid said:

Hi Mucka, thought I'd move this in here and treat it like a question.

So, as someone that has a PhD related to Arctic climate change, and curious to see why you think this is fallacious.
Also, as a huge Noam Chomsky fan, I have a strong interest in propaganda, and even agree that the BBC spreads a lot of it. Still, I'd like to know why you think this particular piece is propaganda.

If we can establish that this is false, and propaganda, then we can start to analyse why this kind of stuff gets pushed.

This story was reported quite widely, including here……

gtiiLL5hZkdGCi7WFiAw2H-1200-80.jpg
WWW.LIVESCIENCE.COM

The UN says temperatures were "more befitting the Mediterranean than the Arctic."

….so it appears to me that we can take it as accurate?   If so, then it is a news story which has relevance when discussing the threat from climate change since extremes of this kind are exactly what science is generally predicting will occur more often.   The question is: can this one temperature extreme be definitely linked to climate change or is it just another anomaly among many?  

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Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

Any news on how the gulf stream is behaving in recent times? Evidence of a it slowing down or nearly on it ways out i have heard in recent years. I did read somewhere a complete shutdown if happened would only take up to 2 to 3 years!

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