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Paul

Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition

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1 minute ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

"When does winter start?  This year, astronomical winter begins on 22 December 2019 and ends on 20 March 2020.  By the meteorological calendar, the first day of winter is always 1 December; ending on 28 (or 29 during a Leap Year) February. " 

hawthorn-berries-in-a-frost.-photo-galin
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

How you define the first day of winter depends on whether you are referring to the astronomical or meteorological winter.

12th November 2010  archivesnh-2010-11-12-0-0.thumb.png.3886759a71a06aa1319e28a9601710c0.png 2 weeks later 26th November 2010 archivesnh-2010-11-26-0-0.thumb.png.4b307dc27cdd72901103d020219d0099.png 

12th February 2018  411969593_archivesnh-2018-2-12-0-0(1).thumb.png.d0dc1ffc37e3576f5cf61aa1b8e2bcb6.png 2 weeks later 26th February 2018 archivesnh-2018-2-26-0-0.thumb.png.f0424bd2ee99f7af93af11fe26318ece.png

Just a reminder of how quickly things can develop for those that are incredibly trying to write this winter off on 11th October 🤔

 

Well said 🙂

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Reading the discussion i can't say i have seen much more reason to place stock in (often inaccurate) seasonal model forecasts however Crewe is correct to at least highlight the consensus (can anybody post the latest Euro and CFS overall Dec-Feb charts so we can compare to Glosea5).

That said, we do have solar activity definitely on our side. 

Last year we saw the 15th most spotless year on record which produced an above average Dec and Feb with an average Jan. Now while December was an anomaly (for top 20 years since 1850 a December CET exceeding 5.6C was the least likely outcome) actually both January and February were on the ball somewhat. Those top 20 years suggested that an average January (45% of the dataset) and above average February (40% of the dataset) were both the most likely monthly outcomes. The penchant for above average February's (indeed 25% of the dataset had February CET's above 6C) was something that many (me included) seemingly ignored. 

This year however we are currently on course to have the 2nd-4th most spotless year on record beating 2008 and 2009 (Q3 had a 95% spotless count, a 90% rate is enough for third in Q4, 96% for second). Now taking a look at the top 10 years the analogue set looks a lot better than last year with the most likely outcome in December being cold (i define that as 3.6C or less) and Jan/Feb having equal chances of an average or cold month (i defined average as up to 5.3C). Indeed the chances of a 'warm' Dec, Jan or Feb are 20%, 0% and 20% respectively. 

Not something that i will pin my hat onto (i personally see winter getting better as it goes on rather than starting early) but it is data none the less. 

At any rate, here is composite for the three top 10 winters post 1948 (for which we have charts)..

winsol.thumb.png.766970ddd0cf1c936d56f6d8cd921262.png

 

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7 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Reading the discussion i can't say i have seen much more reason to place stock in (often inaccurate) seasonal model forecasts however Crewe is correct to at least highlight the consensus (can anybody post the latest Euro and CFS overall Dec-Feb charts so we can compare to Glosea5).

 

image.thumb.png.79ad6bc13cd5ca1542f77008b3efc8e7.png

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1 hour ago, Paul said:

Personally, I think it's too early to look too seriously at a forecast for Dec, Jan and Feb. There's too much water to go under the bridge to go that far ahead with any reasonable confidence as far as I'm concerned. 

Also, what does a warmer than average winter mean to people? Look at last winter - Dec and Jan were milder than average for most of the country, then Feb saw a cold spell which tipped the scales and we ended up with it being a colder than average season. Yet I think most would look back and remember it as a mild winter overall. 

I think we need to get closer to look at the details of a seasonal forecast and closer still to really get to the gist of what's likely to happen as an average temperature over a month or a season rarely tells the entire story.

All that said though, it's fair to say it's tougher than ever to see colder than average months these days, so lots of stars do tend to need to align for that to happen. So the obvious form horse to back is always likely to be at the milder end of the scale.

It depends on which range of years is being used as ‘average’ with the rate of global warming currently. The Glosea seasonal forecasts seem to have the majority of the planet as more likely to be warmer than normal than colder than normal. 🤔

3FD5F87D-8B78-4F9D-816D-44E2EE2659BA.png

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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4 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

conversely if you live in Devon you can drive up to Dartmoor..either way who wants to drive around looking for snow?

Well for the last two winters I haven't needed to! Although I'm sure anyone out there who likes seeing snowy scenes would be more than happy to drive up to higher ground to see it if it was rain down at sea level. 

Edited by Smartie

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23 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Well for the last two winters I haven't needed to! Although I'm sure anyone out there who likes seeing snowy scenes would be more than happy to drive up to higher ground to see it if it was rain down at sea level. 

We usually do quite well for snow here not the best place in the UK for sure but no where near the worst either - seen plenty of great snow events in my life. I'd say we sit in the middle of the UK snow scale. But when there's been marginal situations I am only a 10 minute drive to the Pennines & ground well over 200m. If I liked snow I don't think I could live near low coastal areas seeing everywhere else getting snow. I'd move for sure.

Edited by Frost HoIIow

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39 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I don't think I could live near low coastal areas seeing everywhere else getting snow. I'd move for sure.

I have experience of that. 🙋‍♂️

Lived by the coast for 3 years now and although I probably haven't done too badly considering I've had a couple of decent(ish) snowfalls while here, I still don't like being as close to the coast as I am during those times it doesn't snow here yet does inland. 

Edited by matt111

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1 hour ago, Smartie said:

Well for the last two winters I haven't needed to! Although I'm sure anyone out there who likes seeing snowy scenes would be more than happy to drive up to higher ground to see it if it was rain down at sea level. 

Yep, I've driven to find snow on numerous occasions since and including February 2005.  However, like yourself, not needed to the last couple of winters!

Edited by Don

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I take longer range models very seriously in fact iv'e already written off this winter and seeing how warm its going to be i'm going to have a BBQ this Christmas!

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4 minutes ago, TomW said:

I take longer range models very seriously in fact iv'e already written off this winter and seeing how warm its going to be i'm going to have a BBQ this Christmas!

I thought it’s looking close to average looking at the GFS runs output today ? 🤥

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4 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

I thought it’s looking close to average looking at the GFS runs output today ? 🤥

In that case I won't get the BBQ out 😞 

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14 minutes ago, TomW said:

I take longer range models very seriously in fact iv'e already written off this winter and seeing how warm its going to be i'm going to have a BBQ this Christmas!

Lol,here you go then

winter-grilling-snow-propane-bbq.thumb.jpg.b56be777460c2bb0145f363e158ed2eb.jpg

seriously!!!

how can you write winter 2019/20 off biased on the longer range seasonal model/s?

lets just say that we have a better chance than in the summer months😜

lets just enjoy the ride coming up because i am looking forward to all the gossip on this forum of which i enjoy,there is some good folk on here who know what they are talking about and sometimes they get it wrong and take it on the chin.

i would just like to say a welcome back to Catacol and S4lancia ,Chio and GP(Glacia Point) should hopefully be posting soon😀

and as Legritter says...

download.jpg.2d4db6c255cba4df2585ba4c8480a82d.jpg's all round😁

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Well you lot needn't worry too much as I'm thinking of takng my family to Laplamd this year which more or less guarantees it's going to be cold and snowy.

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15 minutes ago, Anon90 said:

Well you lot needn't worry too much as I'm thinking of takng my family to Laplamd this year which more or less guarantees it's going to be cold and snowy.

Fingers crossed, and you're definitely in with a very good shout, but it's not an absolute given - this was last year into the start of December! 

2311santa.png
WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

There isn't any snow in Lapland and there should be, by now. A few trips from the...

 

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6 minutes ago, Paul said:

Fingers crossed, and you're definitely in with a very shout, but it's not an absolute given - this was last year into the start of December! 

2311santa.png
WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

There isn't any snow in Lapland and there should be, by now. A few trips from the...

 

Oh yes, I forgot about the lack of snow in Lapland last December.  Hopefully a different story this year.

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1 minute ago, Don said:

Oh yes, I forgot about the lack of snow in Lapland last December.  Hopefully a different story this year.

It’s looking like a better picture than last year already. 

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4 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

I don’t need to ask him as I am outside/look out the window every day, month and year and most of the time it’s the opposite of what the Metoffice APP is telling me.

Plus I have been around long enough to remember the absolute farcical busts of long range forecasts/seasonal outlooks. (GloSea5 especially - as recent as last Winter)

Let’s not mix up reality with a fairytale.

My personal favourite outlook below - what a shambles that was)

32F00C3C-68E9-4376-89CA-3C6F258024D7.thumb.jpeg.c612138ab6fd6b12a7f9ed078d28accc.jpeg

 

People keep harping on about last year but it really was just a freak. The seasonal modelling did an exceptional job of picking up the SSW that occurred late Dec/early Jan but where they failed was modelling the downwelling into the trop.

They're not even picking up on a SSW to even confuse things this year. It's a straight forward zonal flow!

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7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

People keep harping on about last year but it really was just a freak. The seasonal modelling did an exceptional job of picking up the SSW that occurred late Dec/early Jan but where they failed was modelling the downwelling into the trop.

They're not even picking up on a SSW to even confuse things this year. It's a straight forward zonal flow!

A little ironic there about harping on 😉. You could set a watch by your pronouncements of doom. Yes, last year was a one off in terms of a specific forecasting circumstance with the ssw but not a one off in terms of an lrf fail. And you know it. Of course you can say the forecast says zonal so it'll be zonal (as you yourself do a lot) but playing the odds on the UKs default climate is hardly an indication of forecasting expertise. It's predicting a 6 on a trick dice with four 6s. All due respect to Glosea, I'm referring specifically to your statement.

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10 hours ago, CreweCold said:

People keep harping on about last year but it really was just a freak. The seasonal modelling did an exceptional job of picking up the SSW that occurred late Dec/early Jan but where they failed was modelling the downwelling into the trop.

They're not even picking up on a SSW to even confuse things this year. It's a straight forward zonal flow!

The LRFs wouldn’t have been much different even if they had.  The 3 month average output may well be ‘zonal’ but that’s not necessarily an accurate forecast of the weather we will experience day to day across that period.  Basics really.  

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Because seasonal forecasts do not predict an SSW, this does not mean that a significant SSW cannot occur. Keep in mind that last winter was a unique case, with forecasts predictably an early SSW, which Europe did not see the effect of. Going back to 2018, a historic SSW emerged within 2-3 weeks in February, which subsequently resulted in a much better impact for Europe at the surface. SSWs may come suddenly, as models can never foresee several weeks ahead. For example, 2009 and 2012 are also. I would just like to point out that the forecasts did not foresee the stable negative NAO over the year since May, nor was the triple in the Atlantic projected. The two things seem to have had a clear connection with each other this year. If driven by the much weakened solar wind via the stratosphere-troposphere coupling after last winter / spring, then forecasts are not good at understanding how the surface responds to the influence of solar activity. All year, the trend has been the opposite of the forecasts, so why shouldn't it do this winter as well.

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