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Paul

Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition

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I've not picked up how it may have fit into the larger patterns in this part of the world, but at the moment it seems that the North Atlantic cold pool, which I remember being prominent in at least the last couple of years, has dissipated for the moment.

Here are the current anomalies, showing the NA drift close to normal temps:

image.thumb.png.16fcf3e4e4fabe259dcb0cf8a744d49b.png

I used to have hopes that the cold pool may help drive more interesting weather to our shores, but never saw any evidence of this. Perhaps its absence may be noticeable?

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24 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

Latest GLOSEA output makes for grim viewing for winter fans. Mild and wet

 

glosea oct 19 ndj.png

glosea oct 19 djf.png

Changeable with low pressure crossing the UK, leaving us at the mercy of transient ridge with 3 day topples all but guaranteed.

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4 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looking frigid for the Rockies! ⛰❄️❄️❄️❄️ Can’t wait for the ski trip to Canada in January! 🎿 

What part of Canada are you off to?

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Be interesting to see how accurate GloSea5 and other world models were for the period of May/June/July this year and if they picked up on the very -NAO for that period a couple of months out?...maybe that is more of a gauge how models have are performing of more recent times.

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30 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

We’re flying to Calgary and skiing in Banff/Lake Louise 😊

Awesome, they're brilliant places to visit. Dunno if you've been before, but it can be bloody cold in January - we had a -40c or so windchill in the evening there once, and it the temperature was still -25c the next morning up at Sunshine. So would definitely recommend packing face masks and plenty of layers etc! 

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7 minutes ago, Paul said:

Awesome, they're brilliant places to visit. Dunno if you've been before, but it can be bloody cold in January - we had a -40c or so windchill in the evening there once, and it the temperature was still -25c the next morning up at Sunshine. So would definitely recommend packing face masks and plenty of layers etc! 

How long can you be outside in that kind of cold, even with the correct layers on?

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3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

How long can you be outside in that kind of cold, even with the correct layers on?

Not long unless you're completely covered in Arctic style gear! Any uncovered skin can start to get frostbitten with minutes.

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29 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Be interesting to see how accurate GloSea5 and other world models were for the period of May/June/July this year and if they picked up on the very -NAO for that period a couple of months out?...maybe that is more of a gauge how models have are performing of more recent times.

GloSea5 looked reasonable for the Atlantic sector, at least. 

2cat_20190401_mslp_months24_global_deter

The October update for DJF could be prosecuted under the obscene publications act:

2cat_20191001_z500_months35_global_deter

2cat_20191001_mslp_months35_global_deter

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21 minutes ago, Paul said:

Awesome, they're brilliant places to visit. Dunno if you've been before, but it can be bloody cold in January - we had a -40c or so windchill in the evening there once, and it the temperature was still -25c the next morning up at Sunshine. So would definitely recommend packing face masks and plenty of layers etc! 

That’s cold! Hope it doesn’t get that extreme 🥶

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1 hour ago, coldwinter said:

Latest GLOSEA output makes for grim viewing for winter fans. Mild and wet

 

glosea oct 19 ndj.png

glosea oct 19 djf.png

Beautiful! 

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I hope that model output is as 'accurate' as it was this time last year. Totally useless.

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so apparently continuous wind a rain leading to property damage and floods is a "beautiful thing" for the winter months! thank goodness these models are as much use as sandpaper is for toilet roll!! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Monkeypants said:

so apparently continuous wind a rain leading to property damage and floods is a "beautiful thing" for the winter months! thank goodness these models are as much use as sandpaper is for toilet roll!! 

 

I think he was joking.  However, another grim update from GLOSEA5!  It may have been wrong last year, but that’s not to say it will be incorrect for the coming winter.

Edited by Don

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1 minute ago, Don said:

I think he was joking.  However, another grim update from GLOSEA5!  It may have been wrong last year, but that’s not to say it will be incorrect for the coming winter.

just find continuous wet and dull so depressing and unhealthy. what i dont understand is the obsession with long range models when they are so poor. irony is they continuously lead to disappointment for folk😂😂 not hot / cold enough, no snow/storms can they be so poor or is it purely our over eager interpretations as weather fans

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4 hours ago, Smartie said:

Depends what part of the south west we're talking about really, the far south west like Devon & Cornwall & I agree with your comments but living further north east in the SW I have many memories of decent snowfall in the 47 years I've lived here, contrast that with relatives I have living down in St. Ives and it's a totally different story where snowfall is rare & it doesn't hang around long when it has fallen. 

I'm also very close to the mendips so if any snowfall is a high ground only affair it's only a short drive to get up there to see some very wintry scenes. 

conversely if you live in Devon you can drive up to Dartmoor..either way who wants to drive around looking for snow?

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2 hours ago, Paul said:

Awesome, they're brilliant places to visit. Dunno if you've been before, but it can be bloody cold in January - we had a -40c or so windchill in the evening there once, and it the temperature was still -25c the next morning up at Sunshine. So would definitely recommend packing face masks and plenty of layers etc! 

Jasper is better than Banff IMO

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5 hours ago, coldwinter said:

Latest GLOSEA output makes for grim viewing for winter fans. Mild and wet

 

glosea oct 19 ndj.png

glosea oct 19 djf.png

Can an educated person in here explain to me how the winter forecasts from ECM and Glosea have produced the above "predictions".
I ask as fairly up with weather trends I read about almost record low arctic sea ice, open arctic waters, solar minimums with very few sun spots, a starting record low polar vortex etc etc.
All as I read on here positives for proper cold winter spells, I know its an average for DJF, but how are this years signs from the seasonal models so much different to last years bust of a more colder winter, to produce a what looks like typical dross of a wet/warm winter. 
One hopes that they will bust the other way as they did last year.

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25 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Can an educated person in here explain to me how the winter forecasts from ECM and Glosea have produced the above "predictions".
I ask as fairly up with weather trends I read about almost record low arctic sea ice, open arctic waters, solar minimums with very few sun spots, a starting record low polar vortex etc etc.
All as I read on here positives for proper cold winter spells, I know its an average for DJF, but how are this years signs from the seasonal models so much different to last years bust of a more colder winter, to produce a what looks like typical dross of a wet/warm winter. 
One hopes that they will bust the other way as they did last year.

Because this year, there looks to be a quick coupling of the strat and trop- grim unless we see a SSW. Unfortunately, these models are obviously not seeing any stratospheric disturbances to break the zonal regime.

It also makes sense when you realise the wQBO will be being flushed down through the bottom layers of the stratosphere throughout winter.

The last 2 GLOSEA updates have been pretty identical in their placements of the major pressure deviations so I do think we should prepare for a mild winter. As things stand, the model offers minimal prospect of even topplers.

Edited by CreweCold

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Because this year, there looks to be a quick coupling of the strat and trop- grim unless we see a SSW. Unfortunately, these models are obviously not seeing any stratospheric disturbances to break the zonal regime.

It also makes sense when you realise the wQBO will be being flushed down through the bottom layers of the atmosphere throughout winter.

Still think we could be in line for a late(ish) season SSW - think 11-12.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still think we could be in line for a late(ish) season SSW - think 11-12.

I'm struggling to even see that at present, if I'm being truthfully honest. 

ENSO neutral will do us no favours either.

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in all intense ssw's have helped once in how many years. the 2010 scenario wasn't a ssw and yes we did well from the beat from the east which was an ssw. to much is pinned on ssw,

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14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The last 2 GLOSEA updates have been pretty identical in their placements of the major pressure deviations so I do think we should prepare for a mild winter. As things stand, the model offers minimal prospect of even topplers.

It's kind of at that point you lose me. There's no way you or anyone else can glean from the seasonal model output, or in fact anything else at this stage that short-lived northerly toppler type spells aren't likely during dec/jan and feb. Let alone any other weather type. 

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1 minute ago, Paul said:

It's kind of at that point you lose me. There's no way you or anyone else can glean from the seasonal model output, or in fact anything else at this stage that short-lived northerly toppler type spells aren't likely during dec/jan and feb. Let alone any other weather type. 

You can glean the fact that they will not be very regular though, given the strength of the anomalies.

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^

Based on the run i mean, of course a run could be wrong at that lead time.

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