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Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition

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14 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think we are knackered for the first half of winter this time though TBH - cannot see the top rated seasonal models all being wrong this badly for December, could be another winter of two halves or the winter of a late beast for me - that's how the anologues are coming out.

Watching the winter updates on Gavs weather vids, the pattern matching and analogues done so far have pointed to a cold February and March.

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23 hours ago, Azazel said:

Yeah. People in Bodmin had to abandon their cars on the A30, right up through wiltshire, hampshire and into London. Bournemouth, Bristol and London all closed runways and airports. The M3 was virtually impassable and Basingstoke was buried. That's certainly widespread IMO.

What I found quite amusing is someone on the forum last winter talking about how those in the south west should approach each winter with a 'it ain't gonna snow' attitude but then look what happened, it was only  the south west & the south that got hit by heavy & disruptive snowfall lol. 

It can snow here in the west country just as much as any other part of the uk & indeed as that snowfall last winter showed, being in the south west or south of the county can be the place to be at times as often these lp systems end up being pushed much further south than originally forecast when they're coming up against a block to the north east, can't remember what year it was (& I don't want to remember either :p) where heavy snow forecast for the south ended up dumping loads of the stuff on the channel islands instead! 

The winters of 2008 to 2012 all had at least one snowfall event here, who knows what this winter season will bring, I just hope it ain't mild, wet & windy all the way through, dry cold & frosty is just as good as cold & snow on my book. 

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22 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Watching the winter updates on Gavs weather vids, the pattern matching and analogues done so far have pointed to a cold February and March.

You know what that means, don't you: we're in for another descending, back-loaded #winterofdiscontent?!:shok:

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1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

People are funny. WRT what someone said to you on Sunday, the first part I bolded is funny because I recall the run of colder winters from 2008-9 were accompanied by rubbish summers were they not? (maybe memory is failing me) As for the second part, well what more can I say!

Yes seasonality I agree with you there. I don't think there is any link with how our summers being good or bad, having a direct link to how the winter turns out. The person I mentioned said the brilliant summer of 2018 was followed by a bad winter!!!! Errrrr..... I said how do you make that out!!!!! The replie I got was there family was snowed in down south at the backend of January!!! With reference to that 2 day snowy spell in some parts. Bar that... To my knowledge, the winter was overall a tame and tepid affair for many parts.... Even the Atlantic was sluggish! Could a more active Atlantic bring us more wintry conditions at times this year!! Are these strange and meandering jets playing havoc with our seasons! It's getting so much harder to fatham out what the seasons will bring us these days! Another popular phrase that seems to be doing the rounds with the general public is.... If America get it bad.... We will get it next.... Another unfounded theory! Will be interesting to see how the first quarter of Winter pans out folks that's for sure! 

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1 hour ago, Smartie said:

What I found quite amusing is someone on the forum last winter talking about how those in the south west should approach each winter with a 'it ain't gonna snow' attitude but then look what happened, it was only  the south west & the south that got hit by heavy & disruptive snowfall lol. 

It can snow here in the west country just as much as any other part of the uk & indeed as that snowfall last winter showed, being in the south west or south of the county can be the place to be at times as often these lp systems end up being pushed much further south than originally forecast when they're coming up against a block to the north east, can't remember what year it was (& I don't want to remember either :p) where heavy snow forecast for the south ended up dumping loads of the stuff on the channel islands instead! 

The winters of 2008 to 2012 all had at least one snowfall event here, who knows what this winter season will bring, I just hope it ain't mild, wet & windy all the way through, dry cold & frosty is just as good as cold & snow on my book. 

my experience of living in the south west is that it snows there a lot less than most other places in England..even when it does it is usually a short lived affair..there are exception to the rule like everywhere else...Feb 1978 springs to mind.

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16 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think we are knackered for the first half of winter this time though TBH - cannot see the top rated seasonal models all being wrong this badly for December, could be another winter of two halves or the winter of a late beast for me - that's how the anologues are coming out.

They all turned out to be completely wrong at the same time last year. I honestly couldn't care less what the seasonal model show. They have proven time and time again to be totally useless.

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Bartlett High this winter would be fantastic get those BBQ's out this Xmas!

CFSR_1_1998021218_1.png

Something like this above would do nicely!

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Snow may well be ahead  of schedule but I am really concerned that we seem to be getting  a repeat pattern from last winter. ie the euro high is causing Atlantic depressions to stall and fill to the west of the UK and thus sw/w winds prevail.

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26 minutes ago, Aleman said:

Northern Hemisphere snow 3 weeks ahead of forecast?

 

Does that mean spring is going to be 3 weeks early? Lol

Being serious....is anyone else confused by the dichotomy between Atlantic dross to the West and early onset of snow to the East?

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29 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

Snow may well be ahead  of schedule but I am really concerned that we seem to be getting  a repeat pattern from last winter. ie the euro high is causing Atlantic depressions to stall and fill to the west of the UK and thus sw/w winds prevail.

If the south/south west get a repeat performance this winter, I won’t be too upset! 😉

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3 hours ago, TomW said:

Bartlett High this winter would be fantastic get those BBQ's out this Xmas!

CFSR_1_1998021218_1.png

Something like this above would do nicely!

certainly better than our usual setup, raging zonality with the jet fairly south with temps around 6 degrees and endless rain, and snow for Scotland, north of the lows

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1 hour ago, V for Very Cold said:

Does that mean spring is going to be 3 weeks early? Lol

Being serious....is anyone else confused by the dichotomy between Atlantic dross to the West and early onset of snow to the East?

Are you aware that the trend is for snow to get earlier in the Northern Hemisphere? While the peak extent is maybe slowly increasing over 50 years plus, the more obvious trend is that autumn and winter snow are up and spring snow is down. That means the main trend is that winter is getting earlier - at least as far as snow is concerned. Check it out:

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=4

 

Edit - Actually, given less snow in the UK, somebody else must be getting our snow, so there is probably a sginificant trend away from one or two areas to one or two others.

 

 

 

Edited by Aleman

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We are certainly due a decent December cold spell. I wouldn't be surprised to see one this year. Just basing this on the law of averages, nothing scientific at all. 

 

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but people here are already giving up on winter and snow when all of it hasn't even started yet? It's early October, come on now. Just because it's been above 10c for the past week and next week too doesn't mean that it will stay like that forever. Why people give up on winter when it hasn't even started yet baffles me.

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3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but people here are already giving up on winter and snow when all of it hasn't even started yet? It's early October, come on now. Just because it's been above 10c for the past week and next week too doesn't mean that it will stay like that forever. Why people give up on winter when it hasn't even started yet baffles me.

You'll need to become accustomed to that sort of thing, Zak, and it's not confined to Autumn...Some folks were writing-off summer -- in February!:oldgrin:

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6 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

my experience of living in the south west is that it snows there a lot less than most other places in England..even when it does it is usually a short lived affair..there are exception to the rule like everywhere else...Feb 1978 springs to mind.

Depends where. You need to be far enough west to get the hit from approaching lps, but not too far south to be in the milder air coming underneath.

If you lived in Exeter then that’s a bit different to areas further north. Cornwall would probably consider snowfall pretty special.

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14 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but people here are already giving up on winter and snow when all of it hasn't even started yet? It's early October, come on now. Just because it's been above 10c for the past week and next week too doesn't mean that it will stay like that forever. Why people give up on winter when it hasn't even started yet baffles me.

This happens every year. By December we will also be overrun with those seeing cold round every corner. 

In reality i don't much care for the seasonal models, they are not all that accurate normally but neither do i get giddy about new norms or repetition like Steve. 

For me, we have an unfavourable Pacific (warm-neutral ENSO and a lot of Pacific warmth will tend to produce a +AO) however the QBO (near neutral) and Solar Activity for top 20 spotless years (we are on course to beat 2008 currently) are pretty favourable. Assuming that the Pacific gets better rather than worse (cooler) as winter goes on, i tend to think that Feb-March is more likely to produce any significant cold than Nov-Jan. Much too early to judge the ENSO right now though. 

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The rump of autumn looks to be notable for sceuro heights and mid Atlantic troughing ...... I have noted how much trough disruption there has been over the past month and also on the modelling. as the wavelengths change this could be an interesting repeating pattern. way too early to make predictions for winter but those saying a generally +NAO negates any chance of a cold winter for here are mistaken ...... depends on scandi and euro heights which we know are very difficult to predict for the seasonal modelling which anecdotally gets them wrong far more often than right! 

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I’ve noticed before, unconsciously, how often the current weather can shape our moods and viewpoints for the weather ahead. Right now it is tipping down outside, it has been for quite a while now and there is little change on the horizon. 

I suspect if we were ‘basking’ in a mid autumn high, with cool still nights and fog with sunshine by day, somehow the mood in here would be more upbeat...

Sticking with the current weather and the whole pre-winter period in general. There are two very sweeping, reasonably unscientific, standpoints that we all take to one degree or another, 1) the weather we have now is an indicator of the season to come. 2) In the interests of balance, its better to have this weather now, get it out of the way in October. Neither accurate yet either could be true.

I like the loaded dice analogy when it comes to weather. It works. But it only works when you load the dice with actuals. I.e. an early season warming/SSW, a Greenland block forecast well within the reliable etc. You can’t load the dice up with hypotheticals and computer forecasts for months ahead. 

I won’t discount the notion that the computer models are more likely to get a mild outlook correct than a cold one. I also get the view that we need to have the forecast going for a cold one in order to have chance, even if slim in itself, of getting one! That absolutely applies to short term modelling, without a doubt, but noise increases exponentially as we head into the medium and towards the long term, making it akin to educated guesswork.

Even the early snow cover is just that right now, early snow cover. It will take a few weeks so see if that plays a part and feeds back to help shape the atmospheric conditions as we head towards winter.

Nobody wants to wish time away but in winter weather watching terms, October is always just a case of getting it out of way, so that so we can get into November. When we will be getting the first proper indicators of where we might actually be heading for the start of winter.

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19 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

my experience of living in the south west is that it snows there a lot less than most other places in England..even when it does it is usually a short lived affair..there are exception to the rule like everywhere else...Feb 1978 springs to mind.

Depends what part of the south west we're talking about really, the far south west like Devon & Cornwall & I agree with your comments but living further north east in the SW I have many memories of decent snowfall in the 47 years I've lived here, contrast that with relatives I have living down in St. Ives and it's a totally different story where snowfall is rare & it doesn't hang around long when it has fallen. 

I'm also very close to the mendips so if any snowfall is a high ground only affair it's only a short drive to get up there to see some very wintry scenes. 

Edited by Smartie

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24 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

Latest GLOSEA output makes for grim viewing for winter fans. Mild and wet

 

glosea oct 19 ndj.png

glosea oct 19 djf.png

Looking frigid for the Rockies! ⛰❄️❄️❄️❄️ Can’t wait for the ski trip to Canada in January! 🎿 

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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Interesting to compare the October and September temperature forecasts from GloSea5 for winter, here are the 2m temperature terciles, September on left, October on right:

3up_20190901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.thumb.png.a85ae9f557b5a4e3566c71446f780dc0.png3up_20191001_temp2m_months35_europe_prob_public.thumb.png.d7c4cd2744fc960fba368dd56865696e.png

Similar, but looks like a small move in probability terms away from mild.  Difficult to read too much into these average plots, but noting that the October run goes to March, the Jan-Mar plot has some interest:

3up_20191001_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.thumb.png.f59e44bb7f513b9e5d57683d02432f4e.png

The white 20-40% probability region in southern UK for the coldest tercile, and the corresponding blue below 20% probability on the near normal temperature plot in the same region, when taken compared to the Dec-Feb plot, suggest to me at least a fairly substantial minority cluster in there with a colder theme for the UK later in the season - maybe indicative of effects of a potential SSW, who knows?

Edited by Mike Poole

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