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Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition

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7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I sure won't be losing any sleep over what the seasonal forecasts (or even the seasonal forecasters) suggest...Seventeen times bitten, eighteen times shy!:oldgrin:

But what about the OFI😣

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4 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

It's not really a concern, last year seasonal models were going for a -NAO & cold winter, the reality was an above average winter. Seasonal models are about as useful as a GFS +300 chart and aren't really worth paying attention to beyond a passing glance.

Very true but I would still rather they showed a cold/blocked pattern.  It seems that the updated GOSEA5 is sticking to its guns, too!  I’m preparing myself for a stinker of a winter and that way I will be less disappointed.

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Certainly a strong signal for a wet winter from ECM nearly all of Europe is warmer than average 

501803117_download(2).thumb.png.a6bb662de03de982a9576af7f5ea3ced.png

951815379_download(3).thumb.png.888957b87ce880c97198b0d548571e87.png

677389395_download(4).thumb.png.459e4dc3c456e4565574c748d419af50.png

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8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Certainly a strong signal for a wet winter from ECM nearly all of Europe is warmer than average 

501803117_download(2).thumb.png.a6bb662de03de982a9576af7f5ea3ced.png

951815379_download(3).thumb.png.888957b87ce880c97198b0d548571e87.png

677389395_download(4).thumb.png.459e4dc3c456e4565574c748d419af50.png

That’s a classic case of ‘the computer says NO!!’ to cold/snow weather fans!  Floods will the be the headline along the lines of 2013/14 with that!

Edited by Don

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Does anyone know what phase sun cycle we were in from 1988 to 1990? Were we in solar max or solar min? 

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I'll put it like this. If even the seasonal models are correct (which they may not be) will it even matter if say next Winter is the coldest Winter in 1000 years. Not saying for a moment it will be, but if such circumstances did actually occur in 14 to 16 months time who would care that the Winter to come wasn't cold at all. In fact even if it was very cold and snowy and the following Winter wasn't whatsoever come the time we still wouldn't be satisfied despite that. 

I sometimes think it's not worth caring too much about been as one Winter could be very different to the next anyway. Even if we had a decade worth of very cold and snowy Winters in solid succession we know full well with our position and tiny speck of land on the globe we'd have to expect a mild and almost snowless Winter sooner rather than later at some point anyway. The only way we could avoid that is the coming of the next ice age which would either bring mass migration or mass extinction anyway.

So in other words either except our climate for what it is, a cool at best maritime climate with the Atlantic been the dominant factor as it has been since the last ice age ended with at best temporary deviations from that climatic norm such as the MWP or the LIA or move to somewhere more conducive to your climatic preference if you can.

In the mean time we're just going to have to put up with crap Winters and crap Summers popping up quite regularly I'm afraid. We just happen to live on the wrong spot of the planet at the wrong time to hope for more than the occasional classic major seasonal variability unfortunately.

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11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Does anyone know what phase sun cycle we were in from 1988 to 1990? Were we in solar max or solar min? 

Previous cycle graphs available on this site....

upslope to a strong max by 1990.

If we are at or near minimum, geomagnetic activity is stronger than same stage of last cycle. 

http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/kp/index.html

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Yes a bit depressing in here tonight, nobody should put faith in these seasonal model forecasts, we can’t predict what the weather will be like in 5 days let alone 3 months.  Yes they can pick up on trends, I for one won’t put much confidence in them, they are about as reliable as the Daily Express winter posts and probably as likely.  
 

Far too early to have any confidence of how our winter will turn out, let’s enjoy Autumn and then worry about Winter, as they say the weather will be what the weather will be.

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2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Does anyone know what phase sun cycle we were in from 1988 to 1990? Were we in solar max or solar min? 

Solar max in 1990.

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I am honestly not panicking. As someone as mentioned, the models produced an own goal for 2009/10 winter which was the coldest since 1979 in most places! I also believe 2012/3 was predicted mild and that produced the goods being slightly below average (save a very mild December). 

They can't even get tomorrow right these models, let alone three months from now. 

 

Perhaps before the net came along, whatever models were used in 1978, 1984, 1985, 1986 showed mild! 

Edited by nn2013

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9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And in 1947 and '79!:oldgrin:

I think we are knackered for the first half of winter this time though TBH - cannot see the top rated seasonal models all being wrong this badly for December, could be another winter of two halves or the winter of a late beast for me - that's how the anologues are coming out.

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm pretty sure back in 09,or somewhere around there, another epic fail regarding a mild winter which turned out to be much colder!!

It was winter 08/09 the models/MetO got it wrong, I remember as it was the only winter I haven't recorded since 1983 (yes due to illness and other factors)...at that stage I was really starting to lose faith as a few winters before this Philip Eden kept mentioning a cold winter was overdue and then we had that run of colder ones. Weather can make fools of us all.

Edited by Froze were the Days

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41 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

I am honestly not panicking. As someone as mentioned, the models produced an own goal for 2009/10 winter which was the coldest since 1979 in most places! I also believe 2012/3 was predicted mild and that produced the goods being slightly below average (save a very mild December). 

They can't even get tomorrow right these models, let alone three months from now. 

 

Perhaps before the net came along, whatever models were used in 1978, 1984, 1985, 1986 showed mild! 

In the years you quote basic modelling was still in its infancy for a few days ahead. LRF work had not started in any operational way.

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Great post @Steve Murr Hard to disagree with any of it.

I feel an early warming ala 2009 will be key.

Edited by CreweCold

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14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Great post @Steve Murr Hard to disagree with any of it.

I feel an early warming ala 2009 will be key.

Well, we will just have to keep our fingers crossed!

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Glad there's a little more positivity coming back into this thread tonight.

With regards to my post earlier, it was just a little tongue in cheek really as I just get a little fed up sometimes of hearing too much pessimism, especially this early on. 

I really like looking forward to Winter in Autumn and even if it doesn't deliver in the end it's easier if the disappointment is delayed until well into Winter rather than thinking our hopes are already dashed long before it's even started. That's the problem though these days with the internet and long range forecasts available to us all long in advance. It just kills off any hope and wonder (unless it's telling us what we want to hear, not that it even always works out then, such as last year) and at this time of year I like to dream that the potential is there even if not finally realised in the end. It's a bit like following your favourite football team and been constantly told that they're going to get thrashed before every match. Just better to see how the game plays out first before making sweeping judgements. Depends who they're up against I suppose as well as their recent performance. Maybe not the best analogy I know but just an example. 

Anyway nice to finally see a bit more balance back in here as well as some caution given by some of the more experienced members in regards to putting too much faith into the long range models whatever they might show for now.

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11 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Certainly a strong signal for a wet winter from ECM nearly all of Europe is warmer than average 

501803117_download(2).thumb.png.a6bb662de03de982a9576af7f5ea3ced.png

951815379_download(3).thumb.png.888957b87ce880c97198b0d548571e87.png

677389395_download(4).thumb.png.459e4dc3c456e4565574c748d419af50.png

When I looked at these type of forecast charts, I always look out for the computer generated oddities.

December rainfall anomalies

Note how western Iceland is much drier the SE of Iceland

Note Norway coastline as you go up it: wet SW, a drier blob then a wetter blob. And off the coast of Norway. Drier than average. 

January is even odder: a wet finger off the coast of Norway sandwiched between two drier areas. Also note the wetter than average area corridor running through the Baltic region all the way into Siberia.

February: Once again western Iceland much drier than SE Iceland. 

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10 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Glad there's a little more positivity coming back into this thread tonight.

With regards to my post earlier, it was just a little tongue in cheek really as I just get a little fed up sometimes of hearing too much pessimism, especially this early on. 

I really like looking forward to Winter in Autumn and even if it doesn't deliver in the end it's easier if the disappointment is delayed until well into Winter rather than thinking our hopes are already dashed long before it's even started. That's the problem though these days with the internet and long range forecasts available to us all long in advance. It just kills off any hope and wonder (unless it's telling us what we want to hear, not that it even always works out then, such as last year) and at this time of year I like to dream that the potential is there even if not finally realised in the end. It's a bit like following your favourite football team and been constantly told that they're going to get thrashed before every match. Just better to see how the game plays out first before making sweeping judgements. Depends who they're up against I suppose as well as their recent performance. Maybe not the best analogy I know but just an example. 

Anyway nice to finally see a bit more balance back in here as well as some caution given by some of the more experienced members in regards to putting too much faith into the long range models whatever they might show for now.

Good level headed post mate, unfortunately with all the information we have at our disposal these days, it becomes very easy for us to make sweeping judgements several months out! Even with all the advancements in forecasting tools, senior meteorological forecasters will still tell you that giving a forecast beyond 7 days in the UK is fraught with hazards! Yet we are still keen to write a season off based on the latest info we access. Remember summer!!! Some of us were keen to write it all of after an unsettled opening couple of weeks! Several plumes and it turned out pretty decent for a fair few! I think it was back in November last year when the met started banging the drum for much colder Conditions in December, and as we are all aware, that prediction kept being pushed back til it was further into the month.. And so fourth til we ended up in mid February, with still no favourable outcome! An early bite, followed by a bite in the middle then one at the end is what I can see happening this year! Somebody said to me on Sunday.... We won't get a bad winter this year because the summer was rubbish!! And went onto say if we get a bad winter this year, wolves will beat Man City!!! Well..... We all know how that turned out...... The twist to this story is..... Never say never... And expect the unexpected folks!!! Enjoy your days. 

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Good level headed post mate, unfortunately with all the information we have at our disposal these days, it becomes very easy for us to make sweeping judgements several months out! Even with all the advancements in forecasting tools, senior meteorological forecasters will still tell you that giving a forecast beyond 7 days in the UK is fraught with hazards! Yet we are still keen to write a season off based on the latest info we access. Remember summer!!! Some of us were keen to write it all of after an unsettled opening couple of weeks! Several plumes and it turned out pretty decent for a fair few! I think it was back in November last year when the met started banging the drum for much colder Conditions in December, and as we are all aware, that prediction kept being pushed back til it was further into the month.. And so fourth til we ended up in mid February, with still no favourable outcome! An early bite, followed by a bite in the middle then one at the end is what I can see happening this year! Somebody said to me on Sunday.... We won't get a bad winter this year because the summer was rubbish!! And went onto say if we get a bad winter this year, wolves will beat Man City!!! Well..... We all know how that turned out...... The twist to this story is..... Never say never... And expect the unexpected folks!!! Enjoy your days. 

People are funny. WRT what someone said to you on Sunday, the first part I bolded is funny because I recall the run of colder winters from 2008-9 were accompanied by rubbish summers were they not? (maybe memory is failing me) As for the second part, well what more can I say!

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Good level headed post mate, unfortunately with all the information we have at our disposal these days, it becomes very easy for us to make sweeping judgements several months out! Even with all the advancements in forecasting tools, senior meteorological forecasters will still tell you that giving a forecast beyond 7 days in the UK is fraught with hazards! Yet we are still keen to write a season off based on the latest info we access. Remember summer!!! Some of us were keen to write it all of after an unsettled opening couple of weeks! Several plumes and it turned out pretty decent for a fair few! I think it was back in November last year when the met started banging the drum for much colder Conditions in December, and as we are all aware, that prediction kept being pushed back til it was further into the month.. And so fourth til we ended up in mid February, with still no favourable outcome! An early bite, followed by a bite in the middle then one at the end is what I can see happening this year! Somebody said to me on Sunday.... We won't get a bad winter this year because the summer was rubbish!! And went onto say if we get a bad winter this year, wolves will beat Man City!!! Well..... We all know how that turned out...... The twist to this story is..... Never say never... And expect the unexpected folks!!! Enjoy your days. 

Trouble is most bad summers still have a few hot days chucked in.... 

Okay there are a few real stinkers, but it pales into insignificance when you look at how many crud snowless Atlantic dominated winters there are. It'll be interesting to see how 19/20 winter plays out now. All of the long range forecasts (for the first half of winter anyway) point to mild, wet and windy. As long as it's not a December 2015 redux!

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