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Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition

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25 minutes ago, Don said:

Surely no one believes this rubbish now?!  The same old cr*p year after year!

Ctrl C & Ctrl P

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*Winter 2019/2020* Early look at the seasonal forecasts for the upcoming winter across the Northern Hemisphere!

Quote

 

Most forecasts call for lower pressure than normal in the North Atlantic, and higher pressure over Europe, which means generally  milder winter in Europe. But, if you are a winter lower, do not despair! These forecasts are an average picture over 3 months (Dec-Jan-Feb), and show the general prevailing weather pattern. Even if the models would be completely accurate, it does not mean that such milder weather would last for 3 months. There can still be cold fronts and snowfall in between such milder patterns. The difference is that instead of the usual 20 snow days for example, you only get 8 or 10 snow days. So the models dont suggest what the weather will be like for 3 months straight, but just how it might look 40-60% of the time. 

We still have the stratosphere as a major factor. Long range forecasts are generally not as good at forecasting stratospheric dynamics in detail, which means they tend to underestimate any potential sudden stratospheric warming events (SSW’s), since the final forecast is made out of many individual calculations, which have different ideas about the stratospheric development. An SSW event can have a major impact on the circulation and can cause major pattern changes in the Northern Hemisphere. So a potential SSW event is an important factor that can change the course of winter in either way across the North Hemisphere.

 

http://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2019-2020-early-look/

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One year he will be spot on.  Lol  He is right about snow events being few and far between in recent years though.  And he might be right about snowfall BUT this is on very high ground which is not unusual for end Oct into Nov 🙊🙈

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I'm pretty sure James madden bases his forecasts on what's going on above the atmosphere. You even have to pay £10 for one of there detailed winter forecasts! I think my predictions of checking how hard the tree bark is maybe closer to the mark! Loads of berries coming on the trees...... All the geese are heading South... Blah blah... A little to early for me to make a prediction just yet, with all the current going ons in the Arctic and atmosphere in general, making it even more tricky! I do feel however that at some stage of the winter, we will be experiencing an SSW... and obviously where it falls could be key!! And I will finish off with a current map of the re freeze. 

SMOS-20191001.png

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Even with solar minimum it could mean jack if everything else doesn't become favourable for cold. Solar minimum is just one piece of the puzzle. There's still a lot we don't know in terms of the more complex dynamics to getting cold to this country in the first place. Even a SSW doesn't guarantee cold to our shores.

I think it's just a case of if it will it will & if it won't it won't. Given the climate of this country it's more likely to be mild than cold. If you put a bet on a mild Winter you'd win more often than not. That's what happens when we live on an island at the western fringe of a major continent where the prevailing wind is from the west rather than the east. If like me you like cold and snow rather than mild damp rubbish then it's probably best to keep our hopes low. It does save a frustrating 5 months running for the dangling carrot.

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spacer.png
WWW.DAILYSTAR.CO.UK

The warning comes as the storm threatens to become the first named one of the...

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAA 😂😂😂😂😂  Can't Breath.... It's so FUNNY.....  xD xD xD

Considering how dreary it's been lately thought I'd link this to give people a good Laugh xD xD

 

Edited by Ryukai

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Good to see winter thread open lets hope we all get the winter most of here enjoy.  September long range model outputs have been grim how ever most long range models did go for a cold winter last year and look what we ended up with lets hope we don't get a repeat of last year. Compare to winter 18-19 I would be happy with a repeat of December 17 and March 18.  In the mean time here is gavin's 6TH winter 2019 2020 update.  https://youtu.be/hUcaOhQEwUk

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Perfect SST anomalies in the North Atlantic.  The sea is designed to be warm all the way around Greenland and Iceland, while the cold water at Newfoundland has developed and grown.

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif

We now have a very good tripole, which contributes to a weakened pressure gradient and very favorable for an -NAO and blockages from the beginning of winter.  It gives hope for an interesting winter coinciding with low geomagnetic activity on the sun.

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2 hours ago, syed2878 said:

Good to see winter thread open lets hope we all get the winter most of here enjoy.  September long range model outputs have been grim how ever most long range models did go for a cold winter last year and look what we ended up with lets hope we don't get a repeat of last year. Compare to winter 18-19 I would be happy with a repeat of December 17 and March 18.  In the mean time here is gavin's 6TH winter 2019 2020 update.  https://youtu.be/hUcaOhQEwUk

I hope it’s a repeat of either winter 17/18, or something closer to winters between 2008/9 to 2012/13, or something from the 1978-87 or 1991 era. 

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Quote

 

Winters over everyone, false alarm.

Edited by Met4Cast

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1 hour ago, username home said:

The Denver forecast for this week is interesting

og-image.png
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

14-day weather forecast for Denver.

 

Wow. 

Wednesday 9th October - max of 26C with clear skies

Thursday 10th October - max of -2C with snow showers

 

Now THAT is changeable weather, not the Atlantic-driven dross we get in this country.

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I'm pretty pessimistic about this Winter despite the low solar activity and declining wqbo.

The seasonal ECM and GLOSEA show a strong signal for our enemies of the Euro High and the Iceland/Greenland trough.

Transient Northerlies might be our only chance. 

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1 hour ago, Mr TOAD said:

Wow. 

Wednesday 9th October - max of 26C with clear skies

Thursday 10th October - max of -2C with snow showers

 

Now THAT is changeable weather, not the Atlantic-driven dross we get in this country.

That is quite something. 26 degrees and sunny at 2pm Wednesday, to -2 and snowing by 2am Thursday morning. Mid summer to mid winter in 12 hours! Then back up into the 20's to end the week.

Edited by MattStoke

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31 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

That is quite something. 26 degrees and sunny at 2pm Wednesday, to -2 and snowing by 2am Thursday morning. Mid summer to mid winter in 12 hours! Then back up into the 20's to end the week.

not really...this happens a lot in N.America esp in the Autumn and spring

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You wanna know something I REALLY want to see this winter? Thundersnow 🙃

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36 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

That is quite something. 26 degrees and sunny at 2pm Wednesday, to -2 and snowing by 2am Thursday morning. Mid summer to mid winter in 12 hours! Then back up into the 20's to end the week.

We get that in the Rockies here in Canada a fair bit. I remember August 2008. Was touching 30oC and then down to 2oC and we had 2 inches of snow settle.I love the mountains for that. Conversely we've had -15oC to +15oC  within an hour in winter due to a chinook (fohn). Love it

Edited by CanadianCoops

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1 hour ago, Mr TOAD said:

Wow. 

Wednesday 9th October - max of 26C with clear skies

Thursday 10th October - max of -2C with snow showers

 

Now THAT is changeable weather, not the Atlantic-driven dross we get in this country.

Just had a look... 28c drop!! 😯

denver.thumb.png.8865f108164453abc51515d04fa50b6f.png

 

Looks like parts of Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska and even Kansas will get a lot of snow let alone Denver and other parts of Colorado. Very widespread as it looks on BBC Weather and ECMWF on Windy.com

denver1.thumb.png.ed5e0b1b36dddf108b0802352e18cb69.png

denver2.thumb.png.fbd82351a6a5d500f53e9d455f73819d.png

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Such is the way of a continental climate, with large changes in airmass over land that you don't get so much in an island climate where things are moderated by the sea. It's still quite something to see!

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31 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

not really...this happens a lot in N.America esp in the Autumn and spring

All down to arctic air plunging south in the trough. Not disconnected to out weather if you note the breakaway trough about to disrupt the block

index.thumb.png.c35076c179c210769321359c9e3d0f18.png

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Early thoughts from me, we’ll be pM air dominated with N’ly outbreaks and sub LPs coming into the colder air.   I believe Scotland/NI and North E England will get early winter with potential potent northerlies if we get the displaced PV set up to E/NE.  I think at times the South will join in late Nov into Dec with some big peak energy periods to coincide but with a N’ly regime we need a potent airmass for the south.

HLB of any bite....late into season imo .....

BFTP

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22 hours ago, Mr TOAD said:

Wow. 

Wednesday 9th October - max of 26C with clear skies

Thursday 10th October - max of -2C with snow showers

 

Now THAT is changeable weather, not the Atlantic-driven dross we get in this country.

Saw that the other day - only a passing shot of very cold air and don't forget the city of Denver is at a high altitude (near a mile up) but that is what can happen when you're in the heart of a large continent.

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