Jump to content
Paul

Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Is that maximum overdrive?

Yes strange update there.  Also says less cold conditions.  it certainly will not feel like it with gale force winds blowing up your jacksy 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is it just me or is there really a lot more blues/purples and a lot less reds on the 850hPa maps? Since 2015 the mid latitudes always seemed to be covered by yellows and oranges, with an occasional green even deep into winter 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest thoughts on winter from TWO.

 

snow_berkhamsted_station.jpg
WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM

Latest discussion on the prospects for winter 2019/20. Is the balance of evidence changing to a colder outlook?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Weather online seasonal outlook

Quote

 

Mild, wet December

January wintry at times?

Issued: Friday 1st November 2019
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

*December*

  • Dominated by a westerly flow.
  • Generally mild, few chillier spells.
  • Most rain Scotland, windy and wet here at times.
  • Drier to the south.

*January*

  • Cool west to northwest flow.
  • Wintry showers Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland.
  • Risk of snow edging south.
  • Could be rather wintry at times.
  •  

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/seasonal-outlook.htm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

North westerlies can be very snowy here in winter. I'd bank that 👍 Seems to tie in with the musings from the likes of Chino on here.

Edited by MattStoke

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sidney has his relatives popping over from the States for the New Year

ecmwf-seasonal-monthly_avgs-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_month_mostrecent-7836800.thumb.png.c9fe689cc73d0da2a0440b8622169f3d.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, knocker said:

Sidney has his relatives popping over from the States for the New Year

 

We already have his relatives over here at the expense over our native red ones....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Sceptical said:

Snow now falling to lower levels in Scotland.

Braemar.

 

image.jpg

Unusual to see low lying road covered in snow with the higher hills still green in the background..... hopefully a taste of what's around the corner for all snow lovers as we descend into winter season proper.... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 08/11/2019 at 08:50, knocker said:

Sidney has his relatives popping over from the States for the New Year

ecmwf-seasonal-monthly_avgs-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_month_mostrecent-7836800.thumb.png.c9fe689cc73d0da2a0440b8622169f3d.png

Incredible image.

Got to be a huge Euro high in there ....

Strange thing is we usually see lower temps in SE Europe under a Euro high and can't even those.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest from the BBC monthly forecast continues to suggest the 'unusual' weather patterns are likely to be short lived with a more typical west to south westerly flow re-establishing as we head towards December.  However, the final paragraph is interesting and highlights the uncertainty among meteorologists currently.

og-image.png
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BBC monthly forecasts are just as poor as the other long range forecasts ,I wouldn't take much notice of what they show,all of them got the autumn wrong ,regarding temp,not one said below average for Oct or Nov which looks like happening now,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well winter is getting closer and soon people (those who are inclined to do so, anyway) are going to have to start making predictions, and it is especially difficult this year, some very relevant factors:

  • All long range models giving a highish probability of a mild winter (look forward to the GloSea5 update tomorrow).
  • Low solar activity at solar minimum, which the models apparently don't deal well with, this should lead to a more meridional jet. 
  • Big strat trop disconnect forecast to continue for the foreseeable.
  • SSTs in Indian Ocean favourable for increased westerlies (as per MO Contingency Planners forecast and discussion in teleconnections thread).
  • Possibility of an early SSW.
  • Low arctic sea ice.  

I've been mulling all of this over, and I wonder if one feature of the upcoming winter for the small locale that is the UK, might be a strong jet stream across the Atlantic but angled further south than normal.  

Here's a couple of charts from CFS 18z T1944 to illustrate the sort of thing I mean.  I place no credence in this run whatsoever, just cherry picking charts to illustrate the point:

image.thumb.jpg.fed9e830c007bd5009a3767c6929100f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.5e9882bb1a8a0c37d496335ce8a0b6c4.jpg

In the heart of winter, such a jet pattern with some variability in direction with cold but not very cold air in place over the UK could make for some hefty battleground scenarios.  Just musing of course!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Well winter is getting closer and soon people (those who are inclined to do so, anyway) are going to have to start making predictions, and it is especially difficult this year, some very relevant factors:

  • All long range models giving a highish probability of a mild winter (look forward to the GloSea5 update tomorrow).
  • Low solar activity at solar minimum, which the models apparently don't deal well with, this should lead to a more meridional jet. 
  • Big strat trop disconnect forecast to continue for the foreseeable.
  • SSTs in Indian Ocean favourable for increased westerlies (as per MO Contingency Planners forecast and discussion in teleconnections thread).
  • Possibility of an early SSW.
  • Low arctic sea ice.  

I've been mulling all of this over, and I wonder if one feature of the upcoming winter for the small locale that is the UK, might be a strong jet stream across the Atlantic but angled further south than normal.  

Here's a couple of charts from CFS 18z T1944 to illustrate the sort of thing I mean.  I place no credence in this run whatsoever, just cherry picking charts to illustrate the point:

image.thumb.jpg.fed9e830c007bd5009a3767c6929100f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.5e9882bb1a8a0c37d496335ce8a0b6c4.jpg

In the heart of winter, such a jet pattern with some variability in direction with cold but not very cold air in place over the UK could make for some hefty battleground scenarios.  Just musing of course!

 

I’ve just been going around and around in circles with the European forecast. It’s a bit all over the shop.

I can concur with your idea though, something I have been mulling over. My European forecast for the season should be out later this week 🙂 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lots to be positive about so far from a coldie pov. Not the endless mild sw dross, but can't believe some people calling zonal this morning on the mod thread. It's not at all.

It's only approaching mid November and some are talking like it's mid January lol.

Quietly optimistic about this winter and certainly interest on the models and background signals. Really hope we can maintain a southerly tracking jet this winter and remain on the cold side of the PJ even when it does turn zonal deeper into winter where there could be some big surprises in store.

Edited by joggs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, joggs said:

Lots to be positive about so far from a coldie pov. Not the endless mild sw dross, but can't believe some people calling zonal this morning on the mod thread. It's not at all.

It's only approaching mid November and some are talking like it's mid January lol.

Quietly optimistic about this winter and certainly interest on the models and background signals. Really hope we can maintain a southerly tracking jet this winter and remain on the cold side of the PJ even when it does turn zonal deeper into winter where there could be some big surprises in store.

I agree, most people look at run for run. Not the bigger picture, if jet stays south game on. With possible ssw aswell as little warming! Im excited

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

So, with a long but less volatile timeline the models at 10HPA paint a picture where we move into a position last seen 10 years ago & that timeline being late Nov is the precursor to Decembers AO pattern.

So this is why we are seeing these major blocking patterns appearing, also if the models have the displacement correct & the zonal wind reduces below 15M/S for the tail of November then predicting a negative AO pattern for December should be fairly easy.....

 

 

Good story, though in my opinion it was in winter 2017 we saw a quiet stratosphere in november.

2016 2017.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...