Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It might not make a dent in 'human-caused' global warming in the next 1000 years on average, but in short spells it surely will, climate change was well underway by the last bog-standard solar min and we got the coldest Dec for 100 years and the second coldest on record and the coldest winter for 30 years, with a Dalton minimum..........

And 1947, the snowiest winter of the Twentieth Century, occurred almost in sync with a, compared to these days, whopping Solar max...And neither 1963 nor 1979 were anywhere near a Solar min?

IMO, with real causal links, it's nae often that the 'misses' outnumber the 'hits'...?

Edited October 27, 2019 by Ed Stone

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And 1947, the snowiest winter of the Twentieth Century, occurred almost in sync with a, compared to these days, whopping Solar max...And neither 1963 nor 1979 were anywhere near a Solar min?

IMO, with real causal links, it's nae often that the misses outnumber hits...?

Yes but then surely 1947 would not have happened today in solar max as it needs something special these days to override the current climate (not saying that the climate will remain like this by any means, no one knows for sure) but in 2009-2010 we got that something special - ie - solar min - tripole, medoki EL NINO etc.

Edited October 27, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[ciel]

24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It might not make a dent in 'human-caused' global warming in the next 1000 years on average, but in short spells it surely will, climate change was well underway by the last bog-standard solar min and we got the coldest Dec for 100 years and the second coldest on record and the coldest winter for 30 years, with a Dalton minimum..........

I'm not suggesting that a cold winter/s will not occur, just that, if they do, it does not infer that dramatic long-term scenarios or trends of brutal cold, volcanic eruptions, famine etc,etc, etc. (electroverse stuff) will occur.

And I'm more convinced that volcanic eruptions were substantially causal to the (500-150yrs ago] historic periods of colder than average temps and not the resultant.

[Weather-history]

32 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And 1947, the snowiest winter of the Twentieth Century, occurred almost in sync with a, compared to these days, whopping Solar max...And neither 1963 nor 1979 were anywhere near a Solar min?

IMO, with real causal links, it's nae often that the 'misses' outnumber the 'hits'...?

1978-79 was a westerly qbo as well. You would have thought the cards were stacked against it to turn out so cold. So what caused it turn out that cold?

Edited October 27, 2019 by Weather-history

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, Sceptical said:

Ties in with a report I read on AMOC. 

"in the unlikely event of AMOC shutting down, the most likely outcome would be temperatures in Northern Hemisphere continuing to rise"

 

That report was from an agency called... Skeptical.... The clue is in the title.... They are very skeptical its impossible to say what the next few months will bring... Solar minimum or not.... Like I said in an earlier post, even some of the most senior meteorological people are head scratching this year!!! 

Ps... When you mentioned AMOC..... I thought you was talking about the Aston Martin owners club!!! Not the ocean current.... Lol

[Sceptical]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

That report was from an agency called... Skeptical.... The clue is in the title.... They are very skeptical its impossible to say what the next few months will bring... Solar minimum or not.... Like I said in an earlier post, even some of the most senior meteorological people are head scratching this year!!! 

Ps... When you mentioned AMOC..... I thought you was talking about the Aston Martin owners club!!! Not the ocean current.... Lol

The report I read wasnt from an agency named Skeptical.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

The report I read wasnt from an agency named Skeptical.

My bad... I was making a reference to a grand solar minimum making no impact on a globally warmed earth... Which was skeptical science. Com. 

[Sceptical]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

My bad... I was making a reference to a grand solar minimum making no impact on a globally warmed earth... Which was skeptical science. Com. 

No worries.

[syed2878]

On 26/10/2019 at 17:01, Don said:

Unfortunately the metoffice 30 day forecast has changed today with more of an emphasis on west/south westerly winds through the middle of November and the incidence of milder spells increasing.  I know they could be very wrong, but it's not what I wanted to see.......

 

On 26/10/2019 at 17:01, Don said:

Unfortunately the metoffice 30 day forecast has changed today with more of an emphasis on west/south westerly winds through the middle of November and the incidence of milder spells increasing.  I know they could be very wrong, but it's not what I wanted to see.......

 don remember last year the Met office was going on and on about how cold and snowy it could get over Christmas so let’s not forget that fat either so the increasing in mild spells during or end of November may not come off then again it may do.

[Don]

34 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 

 don remember last year the Met office was going on and on about how cold and snowy it could get over Christmas so let’s not forget that fat either so the increasing in mild spells during or end of November may not come off then again it may do.

I know and that's why I said the forecast could be very wrong.  However, I would rather they were predicting colder conditions rather than the return of the westerlies!

[summer blizzard]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

1978-79 was a westerly qbo as well. You would have thought the cards were stacked against it to turn out so cold. So what caused it turn out that cold?

Standardised qbo values for Jan-March were neutral-positive. While I don’t know if there was a ssw that winter about 50% of neutral years do see one so it’s not much less favourable than -1 standardised values.

[Weather-history]

9 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Standardised qbo values for Jan-March were neutral-positive. While I don’t know if there was a ssw that winter about 50% of neutral years do see one so it’s not much less favourable than -1 standardised values.

There was but the most you can argue about it, is that it probably extended winter. It was centred around 22nd Feb 79

NOAA ESRL CSD: Chemistry & Climate Processes: SSWC

WWW.ESRL.NOAA.GOV

---

NOAA ESRL Chemical Sciences Division (CSD): envisioning a nation that has the needed scientific understanding and information about our atmosphere (environmental intelligence) to make...

 

[Catacol]

We are creeping ever closer to the time when developments matter. Where are things now?

It is fairly well documented that the big model players are forecasting a +NAO winter and therefore generally wet and average/mild. GFS vortex predictions up in the top of the strat show a vigorous vortex starting up, with speeds above norrmal

We are yet to see the tropospheric respond to this...but if it couples successfully then we can probably write off the first month of winter as one which will see little in the way of substantive northern blocking. But - as we saw last winter when stratospheric disruption was very slow to impact on the troposphere - the extent of the coupling is the tough bit to predict.

One feature that we know can help force a tropospheric imprint onto the vortex up above is a combination of Aleutian low and Scandinavian (or East European) High. These twin features work alongside mountain ridges to fire warmer air up into the stratosphere as a wave 2 assault...keeping it at bay or even disrupting it. This early in the season a substantial disruption is nigh on impossible but minor disruptions can work to keep the vortex from dominating the troposphere in early winter and if the dominoes fall correctly it can lead to cold shots. How is the pattern looking in terms of keeping the strat vortex at bay?

Right now we have a strong Aleutian high and a Scandy low. Polar opposite to the perfect wave 2 setup, though the strength and latitude of the Aleutian forcing will be helping set up a wave 1 attack. However - wave 1 at this stage of the season is not (in my opinion) what we really want. It will likely slow coupling down a bit, but its main impact will be to force the vortex off its axis a bit and probably push it over to the Siberian side without reducing its energy too much. Not really what we want if we wish to see the coupling properly delayed or even prevented. 

What about going forward? 10 days out we have this from EPS

Still the Aleutian high - but now signs of a pressure rise over Scandy. Baby steps towards the better tropospheric pattern to see off the vortex?

I am gathering myself for a longer post in about a fortnight's time - the reason being that the next couple of weeks I think will tell us much about the first half of winter anyway. Currently I am not in the camp that sees our winter as front loaded - I am seeing this very much as a back loaded winter but only if the vortex is prevented from substantive coupling. More detail on this and other thinking to come in mid November.

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes, definitely back loaded favoured, downwelling Easterly QBO, neutral enso, 3 powerhouse Easterlies in the last 20 years have occurred in Feb with an neutral enso signal (cant remember which years but did some re-analysis not long ago), plus i cannot see the long range models all being so spectacularly wrong at that lead time for December, although i say backloaded, i can easily see the transition to cold being in early to mid Jan, solar cycle re-analysis points to Jan being the coldest month (thanks to Gavweathervids.com) for that re-analysis. That said though i could see an early brief taste of winter (hence why i am posting in MOD thread in hope) in Nov or early Dec but still going for those 2 months to come out around average or just above overall.

[Duane S.]

Definitely signs atop of a warming later in November on the GFS. Nothing Major just yet but location wise could be as per @Catacol comments, wave2 / i.e. possible split.

Berlin charts coming soon, we should soon start to get a better idea of where we may be heading for late autumn / very early winter.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Catacol]

Baby steps transitioning to toddler? Rinse and repeat wave 2 activity will be key if we are to get some cold in the heart/late winter. Doesn’t rule out the odd cold shot in December either, though perhaps transient. 

 

[frederiksen90]

Yes, Matt Hugo mentions the same thing as Judah Cohen yesterday about whether the combination of aluetically low and scandi-high in mid-November can disrupt PV and possibly lead to an SSW subsequently, as it lies on each side of the Arctic. This is exactly what led to an early SSW in 2009/10. It is good that PV is stronger than normal, which can collect very cold in the upper stratosphere. If it is quickly attacked afterwards, an SSW allows to push very cold air away from the Arctic. Interesting things are already appearing in the PV forecasts despite the strengthening. In 2009, PV also strengthened first, while November transitioned from -NAO to neutral NAO. It provided high pressure over Scandinavia-Eurasian and the North Pacific, which weakened PV via energy transfer. We had a blockage in the troposphere and fast wave 1 and 2 activity. It reminds me this year? Solar minimum? And so I think everything continues to go against the season models until day 7-10. It is only afterwards that you constantly see the peak of PV in the forecasts, while it changes continuously for the first 10 days.

Edited October 29, 2019 by frederiksen90

[bluearmy]

following from the above re the strat, I do have thoughts as to what can happen to an ever strengthening SPV high up if it cant propogate/downwell effectively towards the trop ……… 

[coldwinter]

1 hour ago, frederiksen90 said:

Yes, Matt Hugo mentions the same thing as Judah Cohen yesterday about whether the combination of aluetically low and scandi-high in mid-November can disrupt PV and possibly lead to an SSW subsequently, as it lies on each side of the Arctic. This is exactly what led to an early SSW in 2009/10. It is good that PV is stronger than normal, which can collect very cold in the upper stratosphere. If it is quickly attacked afterwards, an SSW allows to push very cold air away from the Arctic. Interesting things are already appearing in the PV forecasts despite the strengthening. In 2009, PV also strengthened first, while November transitioned from -NAO to neutral NAO. It provided high pressure over Scandinavia-Eurasian and the North Pacific, which weakened PV via energy transfer. We had a blockage in the troposphere and fast wave 1 and 2 activity. It reminds me this year? Solar minimum? And so I think everything continues to go against the season models until day 7-10. It is only afterwards that you constantly see the peak of PV in the forecasts, while it changes continuously for the first 10 days.

Worth pointing out though that 09 had a very warm strat through Nov with very low zonal winds, but yes, crucial to see the blocking in the trop continuing to stop the strong strat PV from ruling the pattern, that's what we are all watching! 

[Catacol]

29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

following from the above re the strat, I do have thoughts as to what can happen to an ever strengthening SPV high up if it cant propogate/downwell effectively towards the trop ……… 

and arguably it requires only a small element of destabilisation to trigger the happening I think you are alluding to.....

[Coopsy]

8 minutes ago, Catacol said:

and arguably it requires only a small element of destabilisation to trigger the happening I think you are alluding to.....

which is?

[Catacol]

9 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

which is?

Ha - well that is for Blue to allude to really....but my own take would be the idea that if the vortex gets supercharged up top but remains disconnected from the troposphere then it is "ripe" for taking down if tropospheric patterns set up correctly. Think of what happens if you set up a spinning top and push it up to full speed and then gently poke it from the side......

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, Catacol said:

Ha - well that is for Blue to allude to really....but my own take would be the idea that if the vortex gets supercharged up top but remains disconnected from the troposphere then it is "ripe" for taking down if tropospheric patterns set up correctly. Think of what happens if you set up a spinning top and push it up to full speed and then gently poke it from the side......

the bigger they are …..

of course would need quite a few dominos to fall the right way and we know how tough that can be ……...

[lorenzo]

Ye olde eQBO looking meaningful... No signs of stalling, or blips... Always a welcome driver to chuck in the mix. 

Strat Trop interaction clearly the key variable now Vs will it or won't it SSW .. good to read the conversation evolving again.

Last year downwelling hit a brick wall, would be nice if that brick wall was still in place and that rampant vortex decided to remain locked at altitude.. 

November taking on early significance in terms of direction of travel further into winter.