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Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition

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Bet the forums get busy over the next few days!

an interesting couple of weeks model watching and weather observing

 

 

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12 hours ago, Sceptical said:

My thoughts are based on 50 years of experience of winter in NE Scotland and trends over the last 20 years for UK winters.

I suspect, come March 2020, my prediction will be there or there abouts.

That’s a no then..? 
 

 

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15 hours ago, Sceptical said:

Winter 2019/20, for the UK, will generally be another mild and wet affair.

I fear you may be proven right.

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Sunspots are currently zero. We are either at or rapidly approaching solar minimum. 

Last time we were at this point of the cycle? 2009... and we all know what that brought.

However this winter plays out it will be fascinating to see if the pattern of low sunspot activity and snowfall continues or if this is a period serious meteorologists will be writing thesis’ about for years to come as ‘proof’ the sunspot theory doesn’t hold weight.

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Didn’t the Met office seasonal charts show a mild autumn for the UK ? 🤔 Looks anything but mild, close to average or below normal more likely outcomes now.

Winter 2019/20 should be colder than the last few winters given the solar minimum.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

 

Winter 2019/20 should be colder than the last few winters given the solar minimum.

Is the solar minimum having any effect on global temperatures?

July 2019 was the hottest month recorded globally.

2019 is on track to be the joint 2nd warmest year on record.

2015,2016, 2017 and 2018 are the warmest years on record.

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Is the solar minimum having any effect on global temperatures?

July 2019 was the hottest month recorded globally.

2019 is on track to be the joint 2nd warmest year on record.

2015,2016, 2017 and 2018 are the warmest years on record.

 

 

 

Low solar activity is supposedly linked to increased northern blocking which can lead to colder winters for North West Europe. That doesn't necessarily mean colder temperatures globally though.

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1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Didn’t the Met office seasonal charts show a mild autumn for the UK ? 🤔 Looks anything but mild, close to average or below normal more likely outcomes now.

Winter 2019/20 should be colder than the last few winters given the solar minimum.

CET was 0.7 degrees above average for September and is bang on average for October so far.

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3 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Is the solar minimum having any effect on global temperatures?

July 2019 was the hottest month recorded globally.

2019 is on track to be the joint 2nd warmest year on record.

2015,2016, 2017 and 2018 are the warmest years on record.

I think, Sceptical, that any effect it does have will be lost within the ever-present assault of AGW...Having said that, should the upcoming winter be anything other than a 'scorcher', believers in the Sunspot link will be citing it as '100% proof' that cosmic rays are to 'blame' ?🤔

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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Low solar activity is supposedly linked to increased northern blocking which can lead to colder winters for North West Europe. That doesn't necessarily mean colder temperatures globally though.

That is true. Whilst the CET for winter 2009-10 was the coldest since 1978-79, over in Canada that same winter was exceptionally mild.

tfigmap.gif
ROBSOBSBLOG.BLOGSPOT.COM

The latest winter in Canada will go down as the warmest and driest winter on a national basis since records started in 1948. The 3 month p...

 

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5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

That is true. Whilst the CET for winter 2009-10 was the coldest since 1978-79, over in Canada that same winter was exceptionally mild.

tfigmap.gif
ROBSOBSBLOG.BLOGSPOT.COM

The latest winter in Canada will go down as the warmest and driest winter on a national basis since records started in 1948. The 3 month p...

 

Which raises the point that increased northern blocking, caused by low solar activity or otherwise, can also lead to some areas (including the UK) being exceptionally mild. All depends on where exactly that blocking sets up and what side of the blocking we're on.

We saw a lot of northern blocking through this summer, which is probably why it was a poor one but with some extreme temperature spikes.

Nothing is ever straight forward in the world of weather!

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1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

CET was 0.7 degrees above average for September and is bang on average for October so far.

October looks like ending below average looking at the current model output so making the autumn so far as average’ish, certainly not mild as the Met office keep saying for mostly the whole globe. Early November seems continuing below average too.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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On 17/10/2019 at 22:24, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Possibly some better news especially for the marine life 

caf29549-153d-46a7-80bd-ad658229ece3-lar
KOMONEWS.COM

SEATTLE -- The second coming of The Blob is dying, says University of Washington atmospheric sciences professor Cliff Mass. But that's a...

 

 

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5 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I think, Sceptical, that any effect it does have will be lost within the ever-present assault of AGW...Having said that, should the upcoming winter be anything other than a 'scorcher', believers in the Sunspot link will be citing it as '100% proof' that cosmic rays are to 'blame' ?🤔

So Ed you believe cosmic rays have no impact on climate?

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