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Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    56 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Not strictly winter but would this run give the coldest March / April period on record.

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe GEM

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, booferking said:

    Can't open link?

    No i cannot post it properly - its the very latest CFS run though available on meteociel - fast forward to 3120 hours or whatever and look at the March - not necessarily brutally cold uppers all the time but the surface cold would probably be the coldest March in 100 years.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    No i cannot post it properly - its the very latest CFS run though available on meteociel - fast forward to 3120 hours or whatever and look at the March - not necessarily brutally cold uppers all the time but the surface cold would probably be the coldest March in 100 years.

    Is this the one you were looking at?

    cfs-2-3120.thumb.png.c1057acf02e8e6c9bc13699ffccaf962.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Is this the one you were looking at?

    cfs-2-3120.thumb.png.c1057acf02e8e6c9bc13699ffccaf962.png

    No - its the 0z from the 18th.

    Edited by Mapantz
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    No - its the 0z from the 18th.

    This one?

     

    cfs-2-3114.thumb.png.3c287d8853b6ca2b3aef64eeb0105c49.png

    Edited by Mapantz
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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    No i cannot post it properly - its the very latest CFS run though available on meteociel - fast forward to 3120 hours or whatever and look at the March - not necessarily brutally cold uppers all the time but the surface cold would probably be the coldest March in 100 years.

    ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
    On 17/10/2019 at 20:04, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

     

    min500enso.png
    WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

    Two weeks ago, we wrote about the latest long range model forecasts, and what they show for the upcoming winter 2019/2020. While we wait for the latest October model updates, we will take a more statistical...

     

    Both these articles are very good reading for the enthusiast.
    Its written very well with no headliners and fanfare as can be seen, I found it very educational and people that just look and think winters over should actually read this and they will learn a lot about how the long range forecasts work and their variants.   

    Edited by seaside 60
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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham City Centre
  • Location: Birmingham City Centre

    I'm nowhere near as knowledgeable as some on this thread, but my feeling for the coming winter is for it to be generally colder than last year's. Personally I'd prefer it if it wasn't, as I'm not a fan of either extremes of temperature, but given the relatively quick cool down from the beginning of September due to the frequent rain and such, I feel like we'll have chiller overall winter months than we had previously. I assume if we continue having this level of precipitation into early next year, maybe we could see that bumping up against colder air from the continent?

    Obvs, my uneducated guess.YMMV.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bromley
  • Location: Bromley
    8 hours ago, Hirudine said:

    I'm nowhere near as knowledgeable as some on this thread, but my feeling for the coming winter is for it to be generally colder than last year's. Personally I'd prefer it if it wasn't, as I'm not a fan of either extremes of temperature, but given the relatively quick cool down from the beginning of September due to the frequent rain and such, I feel like we'll have chiller overall winter months than we had previously. I assume if we continue having this level of precipitation into early next year, maybe we could see that bumping up against colder air from the continent?

    Obvs, my uneducated guess.YMMV.

    Definitely the autumn weather has been somewhat unusual, we’ve pretty much been -AO a lot of the way, so the patterns aren’t feeling normal, and against what the models thought on the whole. Counts for nothing really though, but if the blocking signals we’ve had a lot of the year can keep going we’re always in with chances of pulling in colder air this winter. And yes as you say if we still have low pressure systems coming in then the right set up can cause snow events. I don’t have a hunch yet for this winter though, too many things that seem to be conflicting.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    On 19/10/2019 at 13:38, Summer Sun said:

     

    But in our fast moving climate ,nothing stays the same for long never mind 3 whole months.It be very rare for that High pressure to stay in exactly that location for 3 months in a row,if it even forms their,anyway.

     

    So I would take that forecast the same as any long range seasonal,not worth taking much notice off.

     

    Anyway I’ve got a hunch this winter is going the other way,Cold.

    Already cold in  far Northern Europe  in October ,maybe something is really brewing,because even up there,it’s been ridiculously mild in the Autumn months these past years.

    Then the unusual severity of the Snow that hit North Dakota recently.

     

    Perhaps we will finally get a winter to remember.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Perhaps somebody else can link the tweets (on phone) but Matt Ventrice reporting on Twitter that tonights Euro weekly run for the mid-third of November will go for solid cold throughout Europe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
    1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

    Perhaps somebody else can link the tweets (on phone) but Matt Ventrice reporting on Twitter that tonights Euro weekly run for the mid-third of November will go for solid cold throughout Europe.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

     

    I'm not entirely clear on what the point of these are, is he using a model to predict what tonights update of the ECM will show? I don't see the point..

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
    34 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

    Winter 2019/20, for the UK, will generally be another mild and wet affair.

    Can you back your statement up with some charts please so we can see your thoughts into why it will be mild and wet,just for balance I would be asking the same if someone posted that this winter will be cold and snowy.

    C.S

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    Posted
  • Location: West Aberdeenshire
  • Location: West Aberdeenshire
    1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

    Can you back your statement up with some charts please so we can see your thoughts into why it will be mild and wet,just for balance I would be asking the same if someone posted that this winter will be cold and snowy.

    C.S

    My thoughts are based on 50 years of experience of winter in NE Scotland and trends over the last 20 years for UK winters.

    I suspect, come March 2020, my prediction will be there or there abouts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London
    On 18/10/2019 at 21:03, feb1991blizzard said:

    Not strictly winter but would this run give the coldest March / April period on record.

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe GEM

     

    I am not sure that any model is to be trusted 5-6 months out.

     

    Most of them can't be trusted past about three days.

    Edited by Crepuscular Ray
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

    I am not sure that any model is to be trusted 5-6 months out.

    Nor me - don't agree even with the Jan Feb mild charts the models are coming out with at the moment, think at some point in mid winter we will get a cold spell.

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
    On 21/10/2019 at 16:58, summer blizzard said:

    Perhaps somebody else can link the tweets (on phone) but Matt Ventrice reporting on Twitter that tonights Euro weekly run for the mid-third of November will go for solid cold throughout Europe.

    Ending at Calais....

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    7 hours ago, Sceptical said:

    Winter 2019/20, for the UK, will generally be another mild and wet affair.

    Yes most probably.Bar the  odd occasion most winters are mild and damp.

    A rubbish climate in the winter,but not too bad in the summer as it rarely get too hot.

     

    The UK is probably one of the worst places to live in the Northern Hemisphere if you are a fan of cold and snow,because of its location  at the eastern edge of a vast Ocean,where the sea water rarely falls much below 10 c .

     

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