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Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Bottom chart screams semi-permanent Greenland high.

The only long range forecast model singing for a colder than average winter, yea looks like a persistent Greenland high -NAO..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

@feb1991blizzard seems it wasn't just me seeing the warming potential in the charts...

Yes, what we cannot afford though is a half baked effort, all that will do is delay the strengthening and thus delay any MMW.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Meanwhile we might get an Easterly on this current GFS by 384, but this time if it does it will be a warm Easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

I just have a feeling that if we get an early connect, we won't get out of it this year. We'll be staring down the barrel of months of zonal- pretty much as the seasonals predict. Our best bet is a 2009 type situation. I like your assessment of a 'pseudo zonal' November- pretty much what happened that year. 

Always possible of course, but one observed reality of recent years has been the propensity for very cold air to break out of the arctic regardless of upper vortex strength. This has tended to be over NAm but I see no reason why disturbed patterns cannot force similar outbreaks elsewhere. My mind has been going back to 2010 when we saw a vortex shard shear off....and then recent years' daft comments in the US about the coming of the polar vortex as very cold air arrives over there. See Chicago. There is no peer reviewed science to back up my observed instincts, but it seems to me that as arctic ice melt causes greater and greater disruption to the formation of the tropospheric vortex the chances of such extreme incidents increases. Dec 10 and Mar 18 saw two extreme examples which impacted the UK, Mar 18 the product of a quite remarkable stratospheric vortex disruption and those charts of easterlies from Siberia to Canada that still confound common sense.

I'm yet to get a sense of the coming season really because it is so early - but I don't believe that global weather patterns are going to return to a semblance of predictability. Weather has never been predictable, but in the last 10 years or so it has become extremely unpredictable and even accepting global temperature increase very cold air has, and will continue, to break out.

The Greenland High is key for us. We have had a very interesting long lasting -NAO signal this year and should this continue then I am hopeful that a significant event could materialise for the UK. We don't need a long spell - a week or so of genuine cold and snow would keep most southerners from desperation. 2 such episodes would be a bumper crop....

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

remaining interesting with an ec46 showing broad higher heights to our nw weeks 3/4 and then weakish scandi 5. 

Much more pronounced than previous runs which may mean its isolated but the 6/10 day nwp continues to confound expectations 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

What amazes me is quite a few talking of the met office predictions of a mild winter, going on Glosea etc... There have been reports today from other sources claiming a cold winter is in the offing, which the met have quickly dismissed with this statement..... Its ridiculous to try and make predictions this far out!!! So even themselves realise its nigh on impossible to get a seasonal forecast correct!!! So what I would say is... Sit back, buckle up and enjoy the rides folks. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

What amazes me is quite a few talking of the met office predictions of a mild winter, going on Glosea etc... There have been reports today from other sources claiming a cold winter is in the offing, which the met have quickly dismissed with this statement..... Its ridiculous to try and make predictions this far out!!! So even themselves realise its nigh on impossible to get a seasonal forecast correct!!! So what I would say is... Sit back, buckle up and enjoy the rides folks. 

Interesting points, Matt...But, I see the Met's seasonal 'prediction' as more of a probabilistic 'expectation bias' than as a forecast...:unsure2:

You know it doesn't make sense!:gathering:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Yes Pete... The met office will never overly commit if they are approached in person on all long range forecast, they may mention a few things online, but like you say these forecasts are more about possibilities! I think last year was the proof just how a seasonal forecast can fall to pieces in a big way.. Its so difficult in fact Pete, I think I will make my prediction in April when it's all over..

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Just for context re:GloSea, this was the prediction from July for Aug/Sep/Oct.

2cat_20190701_mslp_months24_global_deter

A fairly strong signal for a +NAO over the period. Both Aug and Sep finished with a -NAO overall, and - if the model output is to be believed - possibly Oct will too.

I've no idea how winter will pan out, but all LRFs (warm or cold) need to be taken for what they are: experimental attempts at solving a potentially intractable problem.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
min500enso.png
WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

Two weeks ago, we wrote about the latest long range model forecasts, and what they show for the upcoming winter 2019/2020. While we wait for the latest October model updates, we will take a more statistical...

Sorry just noticed it was posted yesterday my bad.

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
7 minutes ago, booferking said:

Sorry just noticed it was posted yesterday my bad.

I think that's the work of @Recretos who posts here occasionally. He makes those incredible 3D strat animations.

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Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
38 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Interesting points, Matt...But, I see the Met's seasonal 'prediction' as more of a probabilistic 'expectation bias' than as a forecast...:unsure2:

You know it doesn't make sense!:gathering:

 

31 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes Pete... The met office will never overly commit if they are approached in person on all long range forecast, they may mention a few things online, but like you say these forecasts are more about possibilities! I think last year was the proof just how a seasonal forecast can fall to pieces in a big way.. Its so difficult in fact Pete, I think I will make my prediction in April when it's all over..

so can anybody explain or justify why the british public pay millions of pounds for the Met "probabilities" ?

They cant even get the details right within 3 hours let alone 3 months !  

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
7 minutes ago, Shunter said:

 

so can anybody explain or justify why the british public pay millions of pounds for the Met "probabilities" ?

They cant even get the details right within 3 hours let alone 3 months !  

 

All weather prediction is based on probabilities. That is the way of the science of meteorology, and of many sciences. That's why it's called a weather 'Forecast' and 'Prediction' and not a 'Promise'.

Their contingency planners are meant to be guidance for businesses, policy makers, emergency services etc. Unfortunately, the media get hold of them and (purposely) misinterpret them, producing ridiculous weather stories and misleading the public.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

The CFS seasonal (I know) isn't quite as bad as other models at the moment, November is certainly looking interesting though perhaps somewhat out of sync with the predict strat/trop coupling at the beginning of November

NOVEMBER.thumb.png.69ecc21db16a898a5cd6cccda4b37dc3.png

December a little less encouraging

DECEMBER.thumb.png.a14a17332f47702a1d9d13bbb36173f0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
5 minutes ago, Shunter said:

 

so can anybody explain or justify why the british public pay millions of pounds for the Met "probabilities" ?

They cant even get the details right within 3 hours let alone 3 months !  

 

Or, and better still...why isn't a basic understanding of probability taught in schools, as a compulsory subject?:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The CFS seasonal (I know) isn't quite as bad as other models at the moment, November is certainly looking interesting though perhaps somewhat out of sync with the predict strat/trop coupling at the beginning of November

NOVEMBER.thumb.png.69ecc21db16a898a5cd6cccda4b37dc3.png

December a little less encouraging

DECEMBER.thumb.png.a14a17332f47702a1d9d13bbb36173f0.png

Well thats the most promising ive seen for a few months   That forecast at least   shows us with a chance of something wintry  in November   with high pressure over scandi   Bank!

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Or, and better still...why isn't a basic understanding of probability taught in schools, as a compulsory subject?:oldgood:

It is   Although only 1 in 10 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
3 minutes ago, Shunter said:

 

so can anybody explain or justify why the british public pay millions of pounds for the Met "probabilities" ?

They cant even get the details right within 3 hours let alone 3 months !  

 

The Met Office receives approx £83m from the Department of Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy annually, along with some funding from other non-public sources.

For that we have:

Quote

 

The latest review concludes with high confidence that the benefits of the Public weather Service (PWS) are:

very likely to exceed £1bn per annum and

likely to be close to £1.5bn per annum

 

clouds-in-a-blue-sky.jpg
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

The Latest Public Weather Service Value for Money Review - March 2015

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

The Met Office receives approx £83m from the Department of Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy annually, along with some funding from other non-public sources.

For that we have:

clouds-in-a-blue-sky.jpg
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

The Latest Public Weather Service Value for Money Review - March 2015

 

 

I think a lot of people don't realise just how much work the Met Office and other met services do besides public forecasts. Absolutely every business and service is affected by weather in some shape or form. Met services are an absolute asset.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Not strictly winter but would this run give the coldest March / April period on record.

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe GEM

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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