Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition

[Seasonal Trim]

Models not as good this morning. Let the back tracking begin. Who's ready for a few frosty days up north before the wind, rain and upper single digit temperatures for December? 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

What will be will be. Why not just enjoy the cold snaps that do come along ?

[Tom Quintavalle]

GFS F/CAST CHART 00z 6th DEC.2019  

For those Members that like to indulge in a bit of archive "pattern matching", I'm sure the snow and cold lovers amongst you would take the result of the "cold wave" of December 1981, at a "drop of a hat".

As the Title of this Thread suggests, just a bit of fun "speculation. 

Nigh on 39 Years ago, this morphed into the coldest and snowiest December I've witnessed before 2010, came along.

The CET for December 1981 came in at 0.1c, the coldest December since Met Office records began in 1910.  This bitterly cold CET was more recently "trumped" by December 2010 (which came in at -1c).

               00z 6th DEC. 1981

The "whiplash" wave located to the West of Iceland on the above chart, tracked SE during the 7th/8th and exited the Central, Southern Coast of England, by late Morning on the 8th. It left in it's wake a bitterly, cold Arctic flow.

Above, the scene in Dorking, Surrey on the Morning of 8th December, 1981. The above photograph is reproduced with the kind permission of S.E. Meteorologist, Ian Currie and appears in his Surrey County Weather Book. 

Heavy Rain in the early hours, turned to heavy snow around Breakfast time. I was living in an Inner London Borough at the time (not the greatest location to witness settling snow, in December.) Despite the heavy Rain, a covering of 2 inches of snow was still laid down, by mid-Morning. To this Day, it remains the most satisfying Rain > Snow event, I've witnessed. 

It was my Day off from work, on that Tuesday and I vividly remember watching the Varsity Rugby Match, between Cambridge and Oxford University. The Match was played at a very snowy, Twickenham.

It remained very cold and at times snowy (especially for the North of the U.K.), right up until Christmas Day. The Weather started to become milder on Boxing Day but not before the bitterly cold Weather had decimated the Boxing Day, Sports programme. Around where I lived in S.E.London, there was around 3 inches of snow lying on Christmas Day. Although as no snow fell on the Day itself, not technically a White Christmas.

This in no way is meant to be a Forecast, on my behalf. Just a bit of wishful speculation.

As I stated a few Days ago, the Decembers of 1981 and 2010 are very much the exception to the rule. In all the time I've been interested in Meteorology, I've witnessed very little pre-Christmas snowfall in S.E.London/N.W.Kent.

Regards,

Tom.    

 

Edited November 26, 2019 by TomSE12

[DAVID SNOW]

Thanks Tom.

[summer blizzard]

Reading this thread in recent days the despondent feeling is amusing and indicative of some not allowing their earlier thoughts to remain measured. 

I have been saying for some months that I don’t expect a change to cold until Mid-January and I still remain somewhat confident.

[damianslaw]

42 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Reading this thread in recent days the despondent feeling is amusing and indicative of some not allowing their earlier thoughts to remain measured. 

I have been saying for some months that I don’t expect a change to cold until Mid-January and I still remain somewhat confident.

When you say cold, do you protracted long lasting cold with say means below 1 degree, with snow. The opening days at least will deliver widespread means below average sat around 2-3 degrees at best, a bit below in some spots, not long lasting but definately cold. Its all relative. 

[summer blizzard]

43 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

When you say cold, do you protracted long lasting cold with say means below 1 degree, with snow. The opening days at least will deliver widespread means below average sat around 2-3 degrees at best, a bit below in some spots, not long lasting but definately cold. Its all relative. 

I’m talking Jan-March CET means.

Current analogues suggest means of 3.3, 3.9 and 4.8. 37.5% chance of a Jan SSW between 4th-18th Jan. 

Some may not like protracted cool to cold weather especially since October and November have lacked many mild spells but that suggests a good chance of snow in Jan and March.

If I had to punt I would focus on the 10th-30th Jan and 20th Feb-20th March as the two coldest periods of the winter.

 

[Thunder Snow]

When is the netweather winter forecast due

[ArHu3]

3 hours ago, Thunder Snow said:

When is the netweather winter forecast due

Who still wants to burn their fingers on that, the only way to not do that is to correctly forecast a new mini ice age any other forecast and outcome just leads to people getting upset 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Judah Cohen's latest blog shows the AER winter temperature forecast 

AO Blog Update | AER | Weather Risk Assessment

WWW.AER.COM

---

November 25, 2019 - Dr. Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) embarked on an experimental process of regular research, review, and analysis of the Arctic...

 interesting to note the warmer temperatures over Greenland and some cooler temps over Scandi...

"The AER winter forecast is shown below in Figure i.  The region with the highest probability of observing below normal temperatures is Siberia and bleeding into East Asia consistent with the above normal snow cover extent observed in Siberia this past October.  The other region that has a higher probability of experiencing below normal temperatures is  central and eastern North America especially Central Canada and the Great Lakes region.  In Europe the region with the best chance of experiencing below normal temperatures is Scandinavia.  Most other regions have a better chance of experiencing normal to above normal temperatures this winter according to the model."

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Judah Cohen's latest blog shows the AER winter temperature forecast 

AO Blog Update | AER | Weather Risk Assessment

WWW.AER.COM

---

November 25, 2019 - Dr. Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) embarked on an experimental process of regular research, review, and analysis of the Arctic...

 interesting to note the warmer temperatures over Greenland and some cooler temps over Scandi...

"The AER winter forecast is shown below in Figure i.  The region with the highest probability of observing below normal temperatures is Siberia and bleeding into East Asia consistent with the above normal snow cover extent observed in Siberia this past October.  The other region that has a higher probability of experiencing below normal temperatures is  central and eastern North America especially Central Canada and the Great Lakes region.  In Europe the region with the best chance of experiencing below normal temperatures is Scandinavia.  Most other regions have a better chance of experiencing normal to above normal temperatures this winter according to the model."

So cold air never far away but perhaps struggling to tap into it.

[damianslaw]

Ok was going to wait until tomorrow to do this, but will do it now, for what its worth, here are my musings on winter. These are not based on any evidence, just my observations, significantly affected by variables such as ENSO, solar state, QBO, SST anomalies, pattern over autumn which I think is very influential,and just general feeling. Brief headlines for Jan and Feb only.

December

A good chance this could be quite a wintry month, but no deep freeze, with a varied first half, starting off cold dry and frosty, something then milder and wetter from the atlantic, before a shift back to colder conditions in the lead up to mid-month with the jetstream once again as it has done preety much all autumn on a southerly NW-SE track. This will enable colder NW airstream. Run up to christmas could go either way, wintry and unsettled with further low pressure systems moving in from the NW with embedded cold air, or something slightly milder with heights over mid atlantic ridging towards Greenland to kill off any significant deep NW plunges. Christmas to New Year could well be quite cold with high pressure overhead possibly slightly to the NE, frost rather than snow. 

January

Southerly tracking jet - unsettled and cold, bouts of snow or rain from the atlantic first half, possible drier colder second half, potentially very cold

February

Coldest month overall could be quite dry, easterlies.

[ICE COLD]

20 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Ok was going to wait until tomorrow to do this, but will do it now, for what its worth, here are my musings on winter. These are not based on any evidence, just my observations, significantly affected by variables such as ENSO, solar state, QBO, SST anomalies, pattern over autumn which I think is very influential,and just general feeling. Brief headlines for Jan and Feb only.

December

A good chance this could be quite a wintry month, but no deep freeze, with a varied first half, starting off cold dry and frosty, something then milder and wetter from the atlantic, before a shift back to colder conditions in the lead up to mid-month with the jetstream once again as it has done preety much all autumn on a southerly NW-SE track. This will enable colder NW airstream. Run up to christmas could go either way, wintry and unsettled with further low pressure systems moving in from the NW with embedded cold air, or something slightly milder with heights over mid atlantic ridging towards Greenland to kill off any significant deep NW plunges. Christmas to New Year could well be quite cold with high pressure overhead possibly slightly to the NE, frost rather than snow. 

January

Southerly tracking jet - unsettled and cold, bouts of snow or rain from the atlantic first half, possible drier colder second half, potentially very cold

February

Coldest month overall could be quite dry, easterlies.

I’ll snap your hand of for that forecast to become reality . Fingers crossed and good luck with the forecast mate

[Don]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I’ll snap your hand of for that forecast to become reality . Fingers crossed and good luck with the forecast mate

I’ll second that!

[Summer Sun]

Former BBC weather forecaster John Hammond has issued his winter forecast

• Big fluctuations December
• Drier and colder trend January and February

Full forecast is here for subscribers. Subscription is free. https://weathertrending.com/2019/11/30/winter-2019-20-mixed-trending-drier-colder/

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Former BBC weather forecaster John Hammond has issued his winter forecast

• Big fluctuations December
• Drier and colder trend January and February

Full forecast is here for subscribers. Subscription is free. https://weathertrending.com/2019/11/30/winter-2019-20-mixed-trending-drier-colder/

I won't be too upset if that comes off.  When is the Netweather winter forecast going to be released?

[Don]

Latest from the BBC monthly outlook.  A pretty average December really but seems to have moved away from the predominately mild conditions expected from recent updates.

BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC...

 

[Summer Sun]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

I won't be too upset if that comes off.  When is the Netweather winter forecast going to be released?

Usually on or just after the 1st 

[Summer Sun]

 

[feb1991blizzard]

9 hours ago, Don said:

I won't be too upset if that comes off.  When is the Netweather winter forecast going to be released?

More to the point who is doing it?

EDIT : lets get Rampling out of retirement to cook us up an Essential mix of cold and snow.

Edited November 30, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[ArHu3]

11 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

There definitely is a big urban heat effect visible too, London, Liverpool, Manchester, Bristol and several other large cities just jump out as hot zones on the more recent one

Edited December 1, 2019 by ArHu3

[Don]

22 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

More to the point who is doing it?

 

Me! 

That is a joke by the way......

Edited December 1, 2019 by Don

[Bullseye]

 Statistical vs dynamical. Pick your side.

[Radiating Dendrite]

On 16/10/2019 at 06:38, Radiating Dendrite said:

After watching gav and his winter updates over the last few weeks, the analogues (yes, I know they can be flawed and don't believe in pattern matching per se) seem to be pointing to an unsettled start before gradually getting colder towards the backend of winter. 

Sticking my neck out early:

Dec: Wet, unsettled and above average....6.5c

Jan: Wet to start and then drier and colder.....4c

Feb: Dry and Cold....2.5c

March: Continuing cold to start......5c

Average for winter months 4.3c

 

Pretty happy with how my forecast is panning out - looking like I nailed December!

[Don]

10 hours ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Pretty happy with how my forecast is panning out - looking like I nailed December!

I hope you've nailed February, too!