Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition

[Seasonality]

12 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Well GFS 12z would definitely bring snow beginning of Nov, lining up nicely

 

BFTP

I'm getting more and more confident of an early season cold spell for mainland Europe at the very least. As I posted in the mod thread I'm impressed with GFS's consistency in the countdown to the change. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

11 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I'm getting more and more confident of an early season cold spell for mainland Europe at the very least. As I posted in the mod thread I'm impressed with GFS's consistency in the countdown to the change. 

Even for the U.K. Releasing my LRF on Sunday as I believe Nov will be more winter than autumn

 

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

18 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Re Solar minimum comments and 2009, shwabe cycles are 11 years, so this year more likely to be related to 2008.  Also the extremes ate more due to a more meridional jetstream.

On this winter, Nov shaping up to be a ‘more like’ winter month, particularly 1 st half and towards the end into Dec but I’m expecting a 09/10 winter.  
 

Interesting though the -NAO holding 

 

BFTP

That should read “ I’m not expecting an 09/10 winter”  But very much front loaded

 

BFTP

[Seasonality]

17 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Even for the U.K. Releasing my LRF on Sunday as I believe Nov will be more winter than autumn

 

BFTP

I look forward to reading it!.

[jules216]

1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

I'm getting more and more confident of an early season cold spell for mainland Europe at the very least. As I posted in the mod thread I'm impressed with GFS's consistency in the countdown to the change. 

Are you? My confidence has been decreasing by day and is at all time low today after looking at 0Z EPS. I have intentionally picked up the coldest valley possibly in Central Europe and had a look. The coldest ENS mean T2M day looks like being next Wednesday, towards day 10-15 the T850 hPa  is at 2C. Nothing to write home about. I have nearly fell again in to trap of high lat blocking 144+ hrs which now looks like a mediocre mid. latitude block as per recent winters and model debacles. I have promised myself not to take any blocking literally. Have you not seen the trend where models predict at long range this massive Euro through and by 96hrs the low pressure is barely low enough to qualify below long term mean and Euro high is ready to pounce again from either Iberia or South East Europe. 

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

Are you? My confidence has been decreasing by day and is at all time low today after looking at 0Z EPS. I have intentionally picked up the coldest valley possibly in Central Europe and had a look. The coldest ENS mean T2M day looks like being next Wednesday, towards day 10-15 the T850 hPa  is at 2C. Nothing to write home about. I have nearly fell again in to trap of high lat blocking 144+ hrs which now looks like a mediocre mid. latitude block as per recent winters and model debacles. I have promised myself not to take any blocking literally. Have you not seen the trend where models predict at long range this massive Euro through and by 96hrs the low pressure is barely low enough to qualify below long term mean and Euro high is ready to pounce again from either Iberia or South East Europe. 

I honestly think the new GFS may be onto something this time around. Happy to be proved wrong though, and there's every chance I will be. But I'll nail my colours to the mast regardless

[V for Very Cold]

Have to say the model watching is far more intriguing this October than most years Hopefully this is a trend that will continue all winter!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Interesting thoughts from Jon Hammond of weather trending...... Basically stating that even though the models are pointing to mild weather prevailing through winter, forecasters are twitchy about this confidence from the models. With oceanic, atmospheric and astronomical factors, that may affect our winter, and several of these are currently muted, or contradictory! The momentum is not as one sided as the models seem to suggest! There is suspicion that their predictions may change over the coming weeks!! And I suppose I would say, their would be some nervous forecasters who are still pondering over last years big fail from these models also. 

[Sceptical]

6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Interesting thoughts from Jon Hammond of weather trending...... Basically stating that even though the models are pointing to mild weather prevailing through winter, forecasters are twitchy about this confidence from the models. With oceanic, atmospheric and astronomical factors, that may affect our winter, and several of these are currently muted, or contradictory! The momentum is not as one sided as the models seem to suggest! There is suspicion that their predictions may change over the coming weeks!! And I suppose I would say, their would be some nervous forecasters who are still pondering over last years big fail from these models also. 

UK Winters generally range from cool to mild. That's what I base my expectations on and I'm seldom surprised at the outcome.

If the Scottish mountains catch enough snow for a decent snowboarding season, that's a huge bonus.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Matt

nice post.  They need to be twitchy.  December for me is right on the brink of pretty spectacular or spectacular fail for the UK

 

BFTP

[Don]

5 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Interesting thoughts from Jon Hammond of weather trending...... Basically stating that even though the models are pointing to mild weather prevailing through winter, forecasters are twitchy about this confidence from the models. With oceanic, atmospheric and astronomical factors, that may affect our winter, and several of these are currently muted, or contradictory! The momentum is not as one sided as the models seem to suggest! There is suspicion that their predictions may change over the coming weeks!! And I suppose I would say, their would be some nervous forecasters who are still pondering over last years big fail from these models also. 

Unfortunately the metoffice 30 day forecast has changed today with more of an emphasis on west/south westerly winds through the middle of November and the incidence of milder spells increasing.  I know they could be very wrong, but it's not what I wanted to see.......

[Sceptical]

12 minutes ago, Don said:

Unfortunately the metoffice 30 day forecast has changed today with more of an emphasis on west/south westerly winds through the middle of November and the incidence of milder spells increasing.  I know they could be very wrong, but it's not what I wanted to see.......

It could, and probably will change within a week. Everything still to play for. Realistic expectations etc, etc.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Sceptical said:

It could, and probably will change within a week. Everything still to play for. Realistic expectations etc, etc.

Yes, its important to remember we are still in October.

Still 5 weeks until December.

That said i can understand Dons concern, in modern times once that Atlantic train picks up speed it can take literally forever for it to grind to a halt.

[Don]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, its important to remember we are still in October.

Still 5 weeks until December.

That said i can understand Dons concern, in modern times once that Atlantic train picks up speed it can take literally forever for it to grind to a halt.

Just watched the latest long range seasonal model update on Gavs Weather Vids and the overall outlook continues to be grim for winter, with only a few models going for something colder.  Again by no means should these be taken as gospel but on the other hand I would ignore them at your peril.

Edited October 26, 2019 by Don

[Bristawl Si]

48 minutes ago, Don said:

Unfortunately the metoffice 30 day forecast has changed today with more of an emphasis on west/south westerly winds through the middle of November and the incidence of milder spells increasing.  I know they could be very wrong, but it's not what I wanted to see.......

I wouldnt take much notice as it's full of "mays", as usual. It reads like another comms piece from a newly qualified grad with a masters in spin, overseen by a senior comms spin merchant. 

[summer blizzard]

6 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Interesting thoughts from Jon Hammond of weather trending...... Basically stating that even though the models are pointing to mild weather prevailing through winter, forecasters are twitchy about this confidence from the models. With oceanic, atmospheric and astronomical factors, that may affect our winter, and several of these are currently muted, or contradictory! The momentum is not as one sided as the models seem to suggest! There is suspicion that their predictions may change over the coming weeks!! And I suppose I would say, their would be some nervous forecasters who are still pondering over last years big fail from these models also. 

Generally speaking i think it's fair to say that the back end of winter is more likely to be good to us relative to average based on current factors.

In the main it's the Pacific which has looked less favourable (neutral to positive ENSO and strong -EPO signal is a recipe for little tropical forcing and a strong thermal gradient normally).

That being said i am interested in the standing wave over the Indian Ocean (which may be why the Met have blown their Autumn forecast). Not only has it correlated quite well to our turn to wet weather (it started around mid-September, soon after our own pattern changed to a very cyclonic one) but it has also kept what tropical forcing there is in the central/east Pacific (the MJO has orbited around 7-8-1 for about 40 days - they correlate to higher polar heights generally).

More interestingly however you can see below that over the last week or so it's influence has spread and trades have now increased over the central Pacific. If that persists it may provide a renewed push towards -ENSO values (a neutral to negative ENSO pattern looks good for a -AO pattern as per the chart below). The warm water in the east Pacific (mid-lattitudes) has also cooled a bit which might allow a stronger -PDO pattern to develop than i had feared.

I would still go for a warmer than average Nov-Jan period at the moment before a cooler Feb-March if pushed but there is still more than a month for things to change. 

 

 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Cold setting in early perhaps?? 

 

[Sceptical]

On 25/10/2019 at 08:27, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

"Major winter to match one of the greats in 20th century during next 3 years"....High Confidence

Can I ask when you made the above statement?

[Sceptical]

3 hours ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Cold setting in early perhaps?? 

 

Swings and roundabouts?

Less than a week ago, parts of central and eastern Europe were 10c higher than normal.

Edited October 27, 2019 by Sceptical

[Northernlights]

25 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

"Major winter to match one of the greats in 20th century during next 3 years"....High Confidence

Can I ask when you made the above statement?

I am one of those that has a strong belief that the sun has a reasonable degree of influence over our weather. It is in a very quiet state at the moment with very few or no sunspots for days on end  The last time it was as quiet as this eleven years   ago I noticed a dramatic fall in the number of auroras in the winter which culminated in the winter of 2009/2010. Its because the jetstream is pushed  further south due to the lack of sunspots and so we remain on the northen (therefore arctic air) side of the jet. Add to this that sunspot activity is currently lower than normal inbetween cycles of eleven years then  the link between low sunspot activity and cold winters in NW Europe is even stronger, So I am with Blast From The Past. we are due a cold winter in the next few years if not this one.

 

Went to listen to this lady with Aurora Storm a few years ago and she just confirmed what I had observed with the falling off of aurora actvity linked to colder winters in NW Europe

. 

[SLEETY]

On 26/10/2019 at 11:42, Sceptical said:

UK Winters generally range from cool to mild. That's what I base my expectations on and I'm seldom surprised at the outcome.

If the Scottish mountains catch enough snow for a decent snowboarding season, that's a huge bonus.

yeah we know ,you have already said it before.But it’s about time we had a decent cold winter.Think we have a good chance this year.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yes sleety, I agree... I'm also of the firm belief we are due a brutally cold winter inside the next 5 years!! Not because I'm cold bias, or that I want it... Its just a scenario that is long overdue!! Solar output is dramatically low at present, and I do feel this plays a major role on how the jet stream behaves! A southerly tracking jet is what we need for some proper cold... These scenarios increase with a weakening and erratic jet!! Another concern of mine is the rapid amount of ice loss that is now occurring.... When states are arguing over who should have access to the new shipping routes being opened up through arctic areas, pretty much sums up how bad the ice loss is. Just imagine a complete collapse of the Greenland ice shelf!! Perhaps 15-20feet in sea level rise!! Heaven forbid... A shutdown of the gulf stream due to it. Siberian winters to the Northern hemisphere.. All speculation of course,but a possibility all the same. NASA is basically forecasting a repeat of the Dalton Minimum which occurred 1790-1830....but they give no mention of the brutal cold, famine, crop loss and volcanic eruptions that occurred with it... Interesting, yet potentially dangerous times ahead. 

Edited October 27, 2019 by Mattwolves

[ciel]

43 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes sleety, I agree... I'm also of the firm belief we are due a brutally cold winter inside the next 5 years!! Not because I'm cold bias, or that I want it... Its just a scenario that is long overdue!! Solar output is dramatically low at present, and I do feel this plays a major role on how the jet stream behaves! A southerly tracking jet is what we need for some proper cold... These scenarios increase with a weakening and erratic jet!! Another concern of mine is the rapid amount of ice loss that is now occurring.... When states are arguing over who should have access to the new shipping routes being opened up through arctic areas, pretty much sums up how bad the ice loss is. Just imagine a complete collapse of the Greenland ice shelf!! Perhaps 15-20feet in sea level rise!! Heaven forbid... A shutdown of the gulf stream due to it. Siberian winters to the Northern hemisphere.. All speculation of course,but a possibility all the same. NASA is basically forecasting a repeat of the Dalton Minimum which occurred 1790-1830....but they give no mention of the brutal cold, famine, crop loss and volcanic eruptions that occurred with it... Interesting, yet potentially dangerous times ahead. 

Maybe that's because: Human Influence on Climate Change is Bigger than the Sun's

 

A grand solar minimum would barely make a dent in human-caused global warming

SKEPTICALSCIENCE.COM

 

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, ciel said:

 

A grand solar minimum would barely make a dent in human-caused global warming

SKEPTICALSCIENCE.COM

 

It might not make a dent in 'human-caused' global warming in the next 1000 years on average, but in short spells it surely will, climate change was well underway by the last bog-standard solar min and we got the coldest Dec for 100 years and the second coldest on record and the coldest winter for 30 years, with a Dalton minimum..........

[Sceptical]

19 minutes ago, ciel said:

Maybe that's because: Human Influence on Climate Change is Bigger than the Sun's

 

A grand solar minimum would barely make a dent in human-caused global warming

SKEPTICALSCIENCE.COM

 

Ties in with a report I read on AMOC. 

"in the unlikely event of AMOC shutting down, the most likely outcome would be temperatures in Northern Hemisphere continuing to rise"

 

Edited October 27, 2019 by Sceptical