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Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
12 hours ago, Sceptical said:

My thoughts are based on 50 years of experience of winter in NE Scotland and trends over the last 20 years for UK winters.

I suspect, come March 2020, my prediction will be there or there abouts.

That’s a no then..? 
 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - cold, summer - not hot
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands
15 hours ago, Sceptical said:

Winter 2019/20, for the UK, will generally be another mild and wet affair.

I fear you may be proven right.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Sunspots are currently zero. We are either at or rapidly approaching solar minimum. 

Last time we were at this point of the cycle? 2009... and we all know what that brought.

However this winter plays out it will be fascinating to see if the pattern of low sunspot activity and snowfall continues or if this is a period serious meteorologists will be writing thesis’ about for years to come as ‘proof’ the sunspot theory doesn’t hold weight.

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

Didn’t the Met office seasonal charts show a mild autumn for the UK ? Looks anything but mild, close to average or below normal more likely outcomes now.

Winter 2019/20 should be colder than the last few winters given the solar minimum.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

 

Winter 2019/20 should be colder than the last few winters given the solar minimum.

Is the solar minimum having any effect on global temperatures?

July 2019 was the hottest month recorded globally.

2019 is on track to be the joint 2nd warmest year on record.

2015,2016, 2017 and 2018 are the warmest years on record.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
7 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Is the solar minimum having any effect on global temperatures?

July 2019 was the hottest month recorded globally.

2019 is on track to be the joint 2nd warmest year on record.

2015,2016, 2017 and 2018 are the warmest years on record.

 

 

 

Low solar activity is supposedly linked to increased northern blocking which can lead to colder winters for North West Europe. That doesn't necessarily mean colder temperatures globally though.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Didn’t the Met office seasonal charts show a mild autumn for the UK ? Looks anything but mild, close to average or below normal more likely outcomes now.

Winter 2019/20 should be colder than the last few winters given the solar minimum.

CET was 0.7 degrees above average for September and is bang on average for October so far.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Is the solar minimum having any effect on global temperatures?

July 2019 was the hottest month recorded globally.

2019 is on track to be the joint 2nd warmest year on record.

2015,2016, 2017 and 2018 are the warmest years on record.

I think, Sceptical, that any effect it does have will be lost within the ever-present assault of AGW...Having said that, should the upcoming winter be anything other than a 'scorcher', believers in the Sunspot link will be citing it as '100% proof' that cosmic rays are to 'blame' ?

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Low solar activity is supposedly linked to increased northern blocking which can lead to colder winters for North West Europe. That doesn't necessarily mean colder temperatures globally though.

That is true. Whilst the CET for winter 2009-10 was the coldest since 1978-79, over in Canada that same winter was exceptionally mild.

tfigmap.gif
ROBSOBSBLOG.BLOGSPOT.COM

The latest winter in Canada will go down as the warmest and driest winter on a national basis since records started in 1948. The 3 month p...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

That is true. Whilst the CET for winter 2009-10 was the coldest since 1978-79, over in Canada that same winter was exceptionally mild.

tfigmap.gif
ROBSOBSBLOG.BLOGSPOT.COM

The latest winter in Canada will go down as the warmest and driest winter on a national basis since records started in 1948. The 3 month p...

 

Which raises the point that increased northern blocking, caused by low solar activity or otherwise, can also lead to some areas (including the UK) being exceptionally mild. All depends on where exactly that blocking sets up and what side of the blocking we're on.

We saw a lot of northern blocking through this summer, which is probably why it was a poor one but with some extreme temperature spikes.

Nothing is ever straight forward in the world of weather!

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

CET was 0.7 degrees above average for September and is bang on average for October so far.

October looks like ending below average looking at the current model output so making the autumn so far as average’ish, certainly not mild as the Met office keep saying for mostly the whole globe. Early November seems continuing below average too.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
On 17/10/2019 at 22:24, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Possibly some better news especially for the marine life 

caf29549-153d-46a7-80bd-ad658229ece3-lar
KOMONEWS.COM

SEATTLE -- The second coming of The Blob is dying, says University of Washington atmospheric sciences professor Cliff Mass. But that's a...

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
5 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I think, Sceptical, that any effect it does have will be lost within the ever-present assault of AGW...Having said that, should the upcoming winter be anything other than a 'scorcher', believers in the Sunspot link will be citing it as '100% proof' that cosmic rays are to 'blame' ?

So Ed you believe cosmic rays have no impact on climate?

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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
3 hours ago, jonboy said:

So Ed you believe cosmic rays have no impact on climate?

James Madden certainly doesn't.

Edited by Sceptical
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
6 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

James Madden certainly doesn't.

Hahaha!!!!  I needed a laugh, thank you ??

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Re Solar minimum comments and 2009, shwabe cycles are 11 years, so this year more likely to be related to 2008.  Also the extremes ate more due to a more meridional jetstream.

On this winter, Nov shaping up to be a ‘more like’ winter month, particularly 1 st half and towards the end into Dec but I’m expecting a 09/10 winter.  
 

Interesting though the -NAO holding 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
23 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Re Solar minimum comments and 2009, shwabe cycles are 11 years, so this year more likely to be related to 2008.  Also the extremes ate more due to a more meridional jetstream.

On this winter, Nov shaping up to be a ‘more like’ winter month, particularly 1 st half and towards the end into Dec but I’m expecting a 09/10 winter.  
 

Interesting though the -NAO holding 

 

BFTP

As we're all hoping for a coldie (and matching likish for likish?) what were the Schwabe cycles doing, during the winters of 1947, '63, '69 & '79, Fred?

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

As we're all hoping for a coldie (and matching likish for likish?) what were the Schwabe cycles doing, during the winters of 1947, '63, '69 & '79, Fred?

As it happens Pete, Schwabe cycles are of little overall consequence.....just commenting that cycles are generally 11 years

 BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
29 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

As it happens Pete, Schwabe cycles are of little overall consequence.....just commenting that cycles are generally 11 years

 BFTP

Fair enough, Fred. But, if that's the case, why should this winter be 'more likely to be related to 2008'?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Fair enough, Fred. But, if that's the case, why should this winter be 'more likely to be related to 2008'?

He's suggesting comparable solar activity. We are actually on course to beat 2008. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

He's suggesting comparable solar activity. We are actually on course to beat 2008. 

Which is, in part, a function of the Schwabe Cycle, is it not? Otherwise, what's the relevance of the 11-year cycle? Either it matters, or it doesn't...?

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Fair enough, Fred. But, if that's the case, why should this winter be 'more likely to be related to 2008'?

Didn’t say winter Pete, just re the part of the solar cycle we are in

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Well GFS 12z would definitely bring snow beginning of Nov, lining up nicely

 

BFTP

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