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Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition


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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
10 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Here's my contribution to the discussion:

The following is a preliminary long-range forecast for winter 2019-20, If it seems necessary, I will amend or update this forecast in mid-November. 

This appears likely to be a season where high energy weather events will be grappling with a fairly robust supply of colder air at high latitudes.

Britain and Ireland can expect a very unsettled winter with frequent low pressure systems steered by a strong jet stream running a little south of its average position.

This favours a split north-south outcome where the south is often on the milder side of the storm track getting strong southwest winds and rain, while the north is more open to snow, ice and easterly winds. 

The north-south divide may be enhanced by the likely appearance of strong blocking highs over eastern Scandinavia and western Russia. I don't think these are going to dominate the circulation but they will come into conflict with the zonal regime at times, forcing it to dive southeast around 5-10W and into France and the western Mediterranean. This may be another winter of heavy Alpine snowfalls and frequent severe cold spells in Germany and possibly Belgium and Netherlands into northeast France. 

Battleground conditions seem likely at times across southeast England into Wales and central to northern Ireland. Frequent snow events may occur in northern and even central England, and southern Scotland, also Northern Ireland and some adjacent parts of the Republic of Ireland. 

Some heavy precipitation is likely in this scenario, heavy rain in most cases in southern England, especially the southwest, and the southern third of Ireland (Munster and south Leinster).

A set-up like this may not remain steady-state, but could fluctuate north-south bringing the milder conditions further north at times, while setting the battleground further south at other times. However, the tendency will be for temperatures to average closer to normal or above in the southwest, and below normal in Scotland.

This pattern could evolve into a colder February or even March if the strong jet stream loses energy, then the blocking may be able to assert more control. 

North America can expect a rather harsh winter in general, with severe cold waves at times, colliding with an active storm track from Texas northeast towards Virginia and southeastern New England. There could therefore be heavier than average snowfalls in the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and inland Mid-Atlantic to northeastern states. A pattern like this would not rule out one or two coastal blizzards in the mix. The west will be dominated by persistent cold high pressure trapped in valleys, and coastal areas will have a fairly average winter with a lot of rain, low cloud and moderate southeast winds. Snow on western mountains will be generally a bit above average but might be twice normal in the southern Rockies and northern Arizona around Flagstaff. Drought will break during the winter for California. 

This may also be one of those winters where extreme cold moves south from Siberia into China, Korea and Japan. 

 

Thanks for the ideas Roger.  Could be a rather frustrating winter for us southerners but always the chance of some surprise snowfalls from that type of setup.  May have to wait for a back loaded winter though to join in the fun and games!

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

My early overview....posted some early ideas elsewhere.

For me rpM, pM and at times arctic maritime airmasses.  No major HLB blocking having any ‘direct’ lengthy influence.....AZH playing its part if it retracts W/SW enough.

In this sort of set up with Northerlies we need a lot of luck for snow of significance to affect the Midlands southwards.  (Scotland far north England and NI could do very well).  However, I believe there are some very strong energy peaks this winter and the best chance of widespread winter to strike is Dec (potential notable disruption) and same Bee Year into very early Jan.....but we will need a lot of pieces to fall right.....as Roger says track of LPs crucial, and how far south cold air has sunk.....high risk / reward scenario which means it could just be very wet.   

 

The theme of N/S split to be more pronounced in second half Jan and Feb generally.   Very cold March with HLB

Re Dec I hope to see early decent brief shots of winter in Nov, the way it shapes re southward penetration of cold could be a good indicator. 

BFTP

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

After watching gav and his winter updates over the last few weeks, the analogues (yes, I know they can be flawed and don't believe in pattern matching per se) seem to be pointing to an unsettled start before gradually getting colder towards the backend of winter. 

Sticking my neck out early:

Dec: Wet, unsettled and above average....6.5c

Jan: Wet to start and then drier and colder.....4c

Feb: Dry and Cold....2.5c

March: Continuing cold to start......5c

Average for winter months 4.3c

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
2 hours ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

After watching gav and his winter updates over the last few weeks, the analogues (yes, I know they can be flawed and don't believe in pattern matching per se) seem to be pointing to an unsettled start before gradually getting colder towards the backend of winter. 

Sticking my neck out early:

Dec: Wet, unsettled and above average....6.5c

Jan: Wet to start and then drier and colder.....4c

Feb: Dry and Cold....2.5c

March: Continuing cold to start......5c

Average for winter months 4.3c

 

That's pretty much the climatic norm, with our coldest weather normally being around late January/early February. December is normally just a continuation of Autumn.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
3 hours ago, MattStoke said:

That's pretty much the climatic norm, with our coldest weather normally being around late January/early February. December is normally just a continuation of Autumn.

Yes, well I'm punting for the climatic norm this winter then. 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
12 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, well I'm punting for the climatic norm this winter then. 

It will certainly be interesting to see whether that happens given that we are likely to get a Greenland High next week which is not the climatic norm for late October.

I think many Winter forecasts are expecting the Stratospheric PV to couple with the troposphere sooner rather than later, but what if it doesn't? Can the anomalous polar tropospheric warmth hold off the attack from above?

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-20192020-europe-winter-forecast/601922

"Windstorms to batter British Isles, northern Europe

An active start to the windstorm season is in the forecast for the British Isles, northern Europe and into Scandinavia this winter.

Several storms have already hit the regions this year, including Lorenzo, which was at one point a Category 5 hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean.

However, the frequency of the storms will not reach its climax until the calendar turns to 2020.

“Through early January is going to be the most active,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.

Storms that hit in quick succession could pose a heightened risk for wind damage and flooding as people will not have much time to recover.

Following an active weather pattern early in the winter, the frequency of windstorms will decrease heading into February and March.

“The second half of winter could be largely on the quiet side in regards to storminess,” Roys said.

This may open the door for cold shots to chill the British Isles, but it won't be a repeat of two winters ago when the Beast from the East roared in, according to AccuWeather meteorologists."

 

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
13 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-20192020-europe-winter-forecast/601922

"Windstorms to batter British Isles, northern Europe

An active start to the windstorm season is in the forecast for the British Isles, northern Europe and into Scandinavia this winter.

Several storms have already hit the regions this year, including Lorenzo, which was at one point a Category 5 hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean.

However, the frequency of the storms will not reach its climax until the calendar turns to 2020.

“Through early January is going to be the most active,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.

Storms that hit in quick succession could pose a heightened risk for wind damage and flooding as people will not have much time to recover.

Following an active weather pattern early in the winter, the frequency of windstorms will decrease heading into February and March.

“The second half of winter could be largely on the quiet side in regards to storminess,” Roys said.

This may open the door for cold shots to chill the British Isles, but it won't be a repeat of two winters ago when the Beast from the East roared in, according to AccuWeather meteorologists."

 

Beneficial rains? Infrequent storminess?

Load of rubbish, there forecast has not been upto scratch for years. 

Think Inaccuweather would be a more realistic name. 

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
14 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Beneficial rains? Infrequent storminess?

Load of rubbish, there forecast has not been upto scratch for years. 

Think Inaccuweather would be a more realistic name. 

Is there any chance we can get Accuweather to sign up James Madden, putting those two together could be "interesting" being at completely different angles on the up and coming weather that each has forecasted ?

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

IF (and it's a big if) we can get the tropospheric pattern to play ball over the next 5-6 weeks then it is possible we see an early season warming of the stratosphere. This would require models like the GLOSEA etc to have missed the possibility and so you have to say the chances look slim. However, it remains a possibility. 

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
14 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-20192020-europe-winter-forecast/601922

"Windstorms to batter British Isles, northern Europe

An active start to the windstorm season is in the forecast for the British Isles, northern Europe and into Scandinavia this winter.

Several storms have already hit the regions this year, including Lorenzo, which was at one point a Category 5 hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean.

However, the frequency of the storms will not reach its climax until the calendar turns to 2020.

“Through early January is going to be the most active,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.

Storms that hit in quick succession could pose a heightened risk for wind damage and flooding as people will not have much time to recover.

Following an active weather pattern early in the winter, the frequency of windstorms will decrease heading into February and March.

“The second half of winter could be largely on the quiet side in regards to storminess,” Roys said.

This may open the door for cold shots to chill the British Isles, but it won't be a repeat of two winters ago when the Beast from the East roared in, according to AccuWeather meteorologists."

 

Accuweather forecasts are not the greatest

This is their autumn forecast.

europe-autumn-2019.jpg?w=632

"The greatest risk for these storms will be during the months of September and October."

It's mid October and the there hasn't be a named storm as far as I'm aware apart Lorenzo and that ended up being largely a bust!

This was last winter, where were the frequent gales?

2018-2019-uk-winter-highlights-1.jpg?w=6

 

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Looking at this morning’s ECM, that is a great example of my concerns this coming winter......the dramatic temp differences between north and south

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

@lassie23 posted a status update with a media article referencing this winter forecast. I'm posting the primary source out of interest. Just for the record! I'm not making any claims as to it's value. But it does seem on the face of it well researched. https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10080518/1/Saunders_Lea and Smallwood (2019).pdf

Saunders_Lea and Smallwood (2019).pdf

Edited by Seasonality
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

 

This was last winter, where were the frequent gales?

2018-2019-uk-winter-highlights-1.jpg?w=6

 

Infact, what is their obsession with gales/windstorms for this neck of the world in their forecasts?

For winter 2016-17, they predicted 15-18 named storms for our part of the world for the period October 2016 to April 2017. The actual number of named storms was 5!

 

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
47 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

@lassie23 posted a status update with a media article referencing this winter forecast. I'm posting the primary source out of interest. Just for the record! I'm not making any claims as to it's value. But it does seem on the face of it well researched. https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10080518/1/Saunders_Lea and Smallwood (2019).pdf

Saunders_Lea and Smallwood (2019).pdf 555.05 kB · 2 downloads

I skim-read that last night. It's a multiple linear regression based on the QBO and the 10.7cm radio flux for the past 60 odd years to predict the NAO and CET. No physics, just stats, so all moot really.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Accuweather forecasts are not the greatest

This is their autumn forecast.

europe-autumn-2019.jpg?w=632

"The greatest risk for these storms will be during the months of September and October."

It's mid October and the there hasn't be a named storm as far as I'm aware apart Lorenzo and that ended up being largely a bust!

This was last winter, where were the frequent gales?

2018-2019-uk-winter-highlights-1.jpg?w=6

 

Aye. Whilst there's been plenty of rain (Too bloody much!), there has been very little in the way of strong winds. Thank goodness. Rain and strong winds is just the worst.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
12 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

I skim-read that last night. It's a multiple linear regression based on the QBO and the 10.7cm radio flux for the past 60 odd years to predict the NAO and CET. No physics, just stats, so all moot really.

Better than a Madden though ;) Or worse, that half-wit who writes for the Express

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Better than a Madden though ;) Or worse, that half-wit who writes for the Express

Piers Corbyn? He blocked me from his blog/website because I signed up to call him a "batty boi"

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Just now, Azazel said:

Piers Corbyn? He blocked me from his blog/website because I signed up to call him a "batty boi"

HAHA! You sir deserve a medal. Here is with some sort of papier mache orange turd attached to a globe (think its meant to be the sun and a solar filament)

piers-corbyn.png

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

HAHA! You sir deserve a medal. Here is with some sort of papier mache orange turd attached to a globe (think its meant to be the sun and a solar filament)

piers-corbyn.png

He looks absolutely nothing like how I pictured him haha. I remember reading his predictions and forecasts in the express (My father used to buy it) and it would make me physically angry how often he got it completely wrong and was continuously given a platform to spout his nonsense.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
1 minute ago, Azazel said:

He looks absolutely nothing like how I pictured him haha. I remember reading his predictions and forecasts in the express (My father used to buy it) and it would make me physically angry how often he got it completely wrong and was continuously given a platform to spout his nonsense.

Wait until you meet his brother. :oldsmile:

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
9 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

HAHA! You sir deserve a medal. Here is with some sort of papier mache orange turd attached to a globe (think its meant to be the sun and a solar filament)

piers-corbyn.png

Ah...the infamous Solar Sausage?!

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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

As unreliable as Accuweather is, perhaps theres some truth with the storms? A repeat of 13-14 would be a horror zone. Perhaps the worst winter ever. 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
56 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Piers Corbyn? He blocked me from his blog/website because I signed up to call him a "batty boi"

Forgot to mention, I was thinking of Nathan Rao, check him out. Utter #$%$#

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