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Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You can glean the fact that they will not be very regular though, given the strength of the anomalies.

Exactly what I was getting at. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
9 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

in all intense ssw's have helped once in how many years. the 2010 scenario wasn't a ssw and yes we did well from the beat from the east which was an ssw. to much is pinned on ssw,

I was hesitant to mention SSW as an early season warming could be enough to disrupt the strat. To have a cold strat connected to the trop as early as November (with no disruption) is not good news however...

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You can glean the fact that they will not be very regular though, given the strength of the anomalies.

That's very different to minimal prospects tbh, and honestly even so, that's too much faith to be putting into a seasonal model at upto 5 months lead time, and reading a bit too deeply into an anomaly map. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
5 minutes ago, Paul said:

That's very different to minimal prospects tbh, and honestly even so, that's too much faith to be putting into a seasonal model at upto 5 months lead time, and reading a bit too deeply into an anomaly map. 

You have forecasts on this site derived from longer term models- Ian Simpson uses them in his written longer range forecasts I believe. 

We're not just looking at one long range model here over the course of one run, the EC, GLOSEA and CFS are all showing the exact same output. Cross model agreement 2-4 months out. Has to make us more confident of this happening doesn't it? Especially so if talking probabilities (which I was).

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I was hesitant to mention SSW as an early season warming could be enough to disrupt the strat. To have a cold strat connected to the trop as early as November (with no disruption) is not good news however...

To be honest i am actually going to go the other way on that one, it has coupled in Dec and Jan a fair bit the last 5 years, it might be one of those situations where the bigger they are, the harder they fall, if it couples very early, can it sustain it right the way through 3 or 4 months? not so sure.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, CreweCold said:

You have forecasts on this site derived from longer term models- Ian Simpson uses them in his written longer range forecasts I believe. 

We're not just looking at one long range model here over the course of one run, the EC, GLOSEA and CFS are all showing the exact same output. Cross model agreement 2-4 months out. Has to make us more confident of this happening doesn't it?

True, there is very strong agreement this time to be fair.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

To be honest i am actually going to go the other way on that one, it has coupled in Dec and Jan a fair bit the last 5 years, it might be one of those situations where the bigger they are, the harder they fall, if it couples very early, can it sustain it right the way through 3 or 4 months? not so sure.

Oh absolutely, but right now the modelling isn't picking up on anything to disrupt the zonal flow.

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

You have forecasts on this site derived from longer term models- Ian Simpson uses them in his written longer range forecasts I believe. 

We're not just looking at one long range model here over the course of one run, the EC, GLOSEA and CFS are all showing the exact same output. Cross model agreement 2-4 months out. Has to make us more confident of this happening doesn't it?

You won't find a forecast on the site for winter at the start of October. And you also won't find a long range forecast talking with any confidence about a short-term weather event having 'minimal prospects' across an entire season. 

Confidence in an outcome across a season isn't the question here - it's the suggestion that during that season you can confidently all but rule out a particular short-term setup.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
6 minutes ago, Paul said:

You won't find a forecast on the site for winter at the start of October. And you also won't find a long range forecast talking with any confidence about a short-term weather event having 'minimal prospects' across an entire season. 

Confidence in an outcome across a season is the question here - it's the suggestion that during that season you can confidently all but rule out a particular setup.

I can confidently (up to a certain %age level), rule out as I see fit...at this present time. As far as I was aware, everyone is free to air their views on here.

Weather is dynamic however so it may be that in 6 weeks there is a development which throws what is seen now off track. Has it happened before? Yes. On balance do I think it's likely this time around? No. 

Am I 100% certain? Of course not. However I personally am happy to call at a 70-80% confidence mark. If I'm wrong then so be it! I'd be one happy fella if I am ultimately proved wrong!

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I can confidently (up to a certain %age level), rule out as I see fit...at this present time. 

 

Knock yourself out if that's what you want to do. But I'm perfectly entitled to disagree with you doing so - that's kind of how this whole discussion thing works.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, Paul said:

Knock yourself out if that's what you want to do. But I'm perfectly entitled to disagree with you doing so - that's kind of how this whole discussion thing works.. 

Of course, I've not said otherwise have I?

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
12 minutes ago, Paul said:

You won't find a forecast on the site for winter at the start of October. And you also won't find a long range forecast talking with any confidence about a short-term weather event having 'minimal prospects' across an entire season. 

Confidence in an outcome across a season isn't the question here - it's the suggestion that during that season you can confidently all but rule out a particular short-term setup.

Paul would you agree the signs are ominous for those wanting a cold winter?  Whilst one of course cannot rule out the odd chilly/cold snap lasting a day or two the odds on a cold winter overall (statistically speaking and in real weather terms) look highly unlikely unless a number of highly respected models have got this very wrong?  Statistically (depending on how much faith you put into these models) the odds on a mild and wet winter look the odds on bet currently.  

Edited by East801
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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
48 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Because this year, there looks to be a quick coupling of the strat and trop- grim unless we see a SSW. Unfortunately, these models are obviously not seeing any stratospheric disturbances to break the zonal regime.

It also makes sense when you realise the wQBO will be being flushed down through the bottom layers of the stratosphere throughout winter.

The last 2 GLOSEA updates have been pretty identical in their placements of the major pressure deviations so I do think we should prepare for a mild winter. As things stand, the model offers minimal prospect of even topplers.

So with all the outside signs of prospective cooler weather like all the sea ice loss etc, solar min, you seem very certain of agreeing with the models.
In no way am I disagreeing with you and it may well be right, but do you not think you are reading into it as gospel.

I see you have answered that already, sorry.

Edited by seaside 60
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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
11 minutes ago, East801 said:

Paul would you agree the signs are ominous for those wanting a cold winter?  Whilst one of course cannot rule out the odd chilly/cold snap lasting a day or two the odds on a cold winter overall (statistically speaking and in real weather terms) look highly unlikely unless a number of highly respected models have got this very wrong?  Statistically (depending on how much faith you put into these models) the odds on a mild and wet winter look the odds on bet currently.  

You are contradicting yourself big time...I remember you posting back in February. (Screenshot below)

86FABFF7-D8F1-4CBD-B51E-86AF0737F653.thumb.png.ac9ac7c52d8b7174751f930fa49b7d01.png

I would be intrigued to know why anything is odds on? Surely you learned last time round? 
 

It is the same folk every year with the same nonsense - these seasonal/long range models are absolute cannon fodder. (Whether it shows mild or cold)

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well that was a crap winter, wasn't it? Can we start a Spring thread, now?

Now for next week's Euromillions numbers?:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Well nothing I've posted here (with the reasoning I have) is any different to someone coming and proclaiming a cold winter based on things like solar influences and Arctic sea ice. 

It's easy to sit on the fence, a lot harder to make a probabilistic call! Obviously its early days but that doesn't preclude making a judgement call on balance.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
9 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

You are contradicting yourself big time...I remember you posting back in February. (Screenshot below)

86FABFF7-D8F1-4CBD-B51E-86AF0737F653.thumb.png.ac9ac7c52d8b7174751f930fa49b7d01.png

I would be intrigued to know why anything is odds on? Surely you learned last time round? 
 

It is the same folk every year with the same nonsense - these seasonal/long range models are absolute cannon fodder. (Whether it shows mild or cold)

Ask the Metoffice chief forecaster if he thinks their model is 'cannon fodder'. 

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
20 minutes ago, East801 said:

Paul would you agree the signs are ominous for those wanting a cold winter?  Whilst one of course cannot rule out the odd chilly/cold snap lasting a day or two the odds on a cold winter overall (statistically speaking and in real weather terms) look highly unlikely unless a number of highly respected models have got this very wrong?  Statistically (depending on how much faith you put into these models) the odds on a mild and wet winter look the odds on bet currently.  

Personally, I think it's too early to look too seriously at a forecast for Dec, Jan and Feb. There's too much water to go under the bridge to go that far ahead with any reasonable confidence as far as I'm concerned. 

Also, what does a warmer than average winter mean to people? Look at last winter - Dec and Jan were milder than average for most of the country, then Feb saw a cold spell which tipped the scales and we ended up with it being a colder than average season. Yet I think most would look back and remember it as a mild winter overall. 

I think we need to get closer to look at the details of a seasonal forecast and closer still to really get to the gist of what's likely to happen as an average temperature over a month or a season rarely tells the entire story.

All that said though, it's fair to say it's tougher than ever to see colder than average months these days, so lots of stars do tend to need to align for that to happen. So the obvious form horse to back is always likely to be at the milder end of the scale.

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
29 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Ask the Metoffice chief forecaster if he thinks their model is 'cannon fodder'. 

I don’t need to ask him as I am outside/look out the window every day, month and year and most of the time it’s the opposite of what the Metoffice APP is telling me.

Plus I have been around long enough to remember the absolute farcical busts of long range forecasts/seasonal outlooks. (GloSea5 especially - as recent as last Winter)

Let’s not mix up reality with a fairytale.

My personal favourite outlook below - what a shambles that was)

32F00C3C-68E9-4376-89CA-3C6F258024D7.thumb.jpeg.c612138ab6fd6b12a7f9ed078d28accc.jpeg

 

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Ask the Metoffice chief forecaster if he thinks their model is 'cannon fodder'. 

Crew, I for one am not going to discredit your theories, as your dam good poster. But what I would say is this... Let's ask the met office chief forecaster what happened to last year's failed big winter freeze!!! And there have been many other occasions in the past with summer as well as winter forecasts being badly out of kilter. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
45 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I can confidently (up to a certain %age level), rule out as I see fit...at this present time. As far as I was aware, everyone is free to air their views on here.

Weather is dynamic however so it may be that in 6 weeks there is a development which throws what is seen now off track. Has it happened before? Yes. On balance do I think it's likely this time around? No. 

Am I 100% certain? Of course not. However I personally am happy to call at a 70-80% confidence mark. If I'm wrong then so be it! I'd be one happy fella if I am ultimately proved wrong!

If that is 70-80% chance of no significant cold spell all winter (as I have read your comments to mean), then that is way too high, even based only on this October GloSea5 update, in my opinion (even ignoring the not unlikely possibility that the whole suite is off on one this far out).  

As I noted in my post on Page 5, this update is actually a bit more positive (I should probably say less negative!) re cold chances than the September update, and to me suggests a modest chance (albeit a good way less than 50%) of a later winter shift to cold.  

And that's before you even throw in the reliability at this range, which would add more uncertainty, and therefore lend even less support to any kind of strong prediction like you are making.  So while I understand your argument to an extent, I will beg to differ.  Possibilities for winter 19/20 remain varied for me.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

If that is 70-80% chance of no significant cold spell all winter (as I have read your comments to mean), then that is way too high, even based only on this October GloSea5 update, in my opinion (even ignoring the not unlikely possibility that the whole suite is off on one this far out).  

As I noted in my post on Page 5, this update is actually a bit more positive (I should probably say less negative!) re cold chances than the September update, and to me suggests a modest chance (albeit a good way less than 50%) of a later winter shift to cold.  

And that's before you even throw in the reliability at this range, which would add more uncertainty, and therefore lend even less support to any kind of strong prediction like you are making.  So while I understand your argument to an extent, I will beg to differ.  Possibilities for winter 19/20 remain varied for me.

To be fair i am not sure he means that exactly, i would agree with you that would be way too high as it would be so easy for a late feb 1 week spell like the beast to occur as that timeframe is far too open to change, not sure those winters float his boat though TBF.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

"When does winter start?  This year, astronomical winter begins on 22 December 2019 and ends on 20 March 2020.  By the meteorological calendar, the first day of winter is always 1 December; ending on 28 (or 29 during a Leap Year) February. " 

hawthorn-berries-in-a-frost.-photo-galin
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

How you define the first day of winter depends on whether you are referring to the astronomical or meteorological winter.

12th November 2010  archivesnh-2010-11-12-0-0.thumb.png.3886759a71a06aa1319e28a9601710c0.png 2 weeks later 26th November 2010 archivesnh-2010-11-26-0-0.thumb.png.4b307dc27cdd72901103d020219d0099.png 

12th February 2018  411969593_archivesnh-2018-2-12-0-0(1).thumb.png.d0dc1ffc37e3576f5cf61aa1b8e2bcb6.png 2 weeks later 26th February 2018 archivesnh-2018-2-26-0-0.thumb.png.f0424bd2ee99f7af93af11fe26318ece.png

Just a reminder of how quickly things can develop for those that are incredibly trying to write this winter off on 11th October 

 

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