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Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
32 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Saw that the other day - only a passing shot of very cold air and don't forget the city of Denver is at a high altitude (near a mile up) but that is what can happen when you're in the heart of a large continent.

This is a good point. Denver is about 5,500ft above sea level (Ben Nevis is 4,400ft high for comparison), so it's a long way up!

850 temps are going to go from +23c to -7c in a day - hence the 26c to -2c max temperature drop. So even though the 850 temps may seem quite unremarkable at face value, once you factor the elevation and continental airmass in, you can see why it gets much colder than here. Fascinating.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

This is a good point. Denver is about 5,500ft above sea level (Ben Nevis is 4,400ft high for comparison), so it's a long way up!

850 temps are going to go from +23c to -7c in a day - hence the 26c to -2c max temperature drop. So even though the 850 temps may seem quite unremarkable at face value, once you factor the elevation and continental airmass in, you can see why it gets much colder than here. Fascinating.

Temp dropped 22c here in 2.5 hours yesterday eveining..got home from work and went for a walk at 6pm in a tshirt as the temp was still 21c..by 8.30pm the cold front was rolling through and it was snowing and -1c

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Standardised QBO data is lowest since May 2017. Cycle is apparently matching 1995 and 2002 the closest.

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

We've had very significant snow for the past two winters here in the south, ending our run of snowless winters between 2013-2017. Wouldn't mind seeing some of the white stuff before Christmas which is very rare, but after that it can do one.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
18 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Temp dropped 22c here in 2.5 hours yesterday eveining..got home from work and went for a walk at 6pm in a tshirt as the temp was still 21c..by 8.30pm the cold front was rolling through and it was snowing and -1c

Some change that, I have seen similar in the Jungfrau region at 6,000 ft in August.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
35 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The locked in pattern remains-

Euro high /Icelandic low ..

Everything i detest about the UK climate in a nutshell.

image.thumb.png.a975188f4f23e31ff6c0a6998da215d7.png

Lets just hope  for our sake and sanity these kinda charts aint being churned out come december or we are in a world of trouble

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Lets just hope  for our sake and sanity these kinda charts aint being churned out come december or we are in a world of trouble

I'm not even thinking about Dec mate.

I just want some dry weather to have some nice walks to enjoy the beautiful Autumn colors nature has afforded us.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 hours ago, shaky said:

Lets just hope  for our sake and sanity these kinda charts aint being churned out come december or we are in a world of trouble

Same here but i would want the dry weather for my running than anything else!!hate running in the rain

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
3 hours ago, Azazel said:

We've had very significant snow for the past two winters here in the south, ending our run of snowless winters between 2013-2017. Wouldn't mind seeing some of the white stuff before Christmas which is very rare, but after that it can do one.

Have we?

Some areas have, but it was certainly not widespread. 

I had zilch last year and an inch off the beasterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
3 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Have we?

Some areas have, but it was certainly not widespread. 

I had zilch last year and an inch off the beasterly.

Yeah. People in Bodmin had to abandon their cars on the A30, right up through wiltshire, hampshire and into London. Bournemouth, Bristol and London all closed runways and airports. The M3 was virtually impassable and Basingstoke was buried. That's certainly widespread IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
47 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Oh dear......  1988/89 here we come?  I hope the models change their tune but this is a concern!

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
10 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Yeah. People in Bodmin had to abandon their cars on the A30, right up through wiltshire, hampshire and into London. Bournemouth, Bristol and London all closed runways and airports. The M3 was virtually impassable and Basingstoke was buried. That's certainly widespread IMO.

I'm not getting into a pretty argument, but the heaviest falls were fairly localised; especially last year around the Reading / Swindon / Basingstoke area. 

It spent most of the time raining where I was.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Well both the Glosea and ECM winter forecasts are going for +ve NAO to dominate and a mild and wet winter. Think that's a safe enough bet, go with the form horse. I'll assume the worst and hope for the best.

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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well both the Glosea and ECM winter forecasts are going for +ve NAO to dominate and a mild and wet winter. Think that's a safe enough bet, go with the form horse. I'll assume the worst and hope for the best.

This is very good news indeed as it means winter will be the complete opposite 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
52 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh dear......  1988/89 here we come?  I hope the models change their tune but this is a concern!

It's not really a concern, last year seasonal models were going for a -NAO & cold winter, the reality was an above average winter. Seasonal models are about as useful as a GFS +300 chart and aren't really worth paying attention to beyond a passing glance.

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
5 minutes ago, Paul said:

Meanwhile in the Canadian Rockies

 

 

My fav place to ski - always gets hit by the snow. 

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
1 minute ago, CanadianCoops said:

My fav place to ski - always gets hit by the snow. 

Yep, one of my favourite spots too, albeit to snowboard rather than ski  

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
Just now, Paul said:

Yep, one of my favourite spots too, albeit to snowboard rather than ski  

Plus its 20 mins from my 'other' house (smug face) lol. I must try snowboarding

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

The funniest occurrence of those annual forecast of extreme winters was, for me, in October 2015 when the usual "Britain will be hit by feet of snow in a few weeks that will persevere through the winter" line was followed by the 3rd warmest November on record followed by a December so warm that no other December has come within 1.5C of it!   funny how that came out of the blue for the Exacta gang!

I have a funny feeling about this winter.  It seems to me as if there has been a lot more high pressure in the vicinity of the UK for a couple of years now, compared to the previous 10 years. If it  stays around and all aligns in the right way, we could be in for a brilliant (by which I mean cold and snowy) winter.  Mind you I had the same thoughts last winter and it didn't come off, though I thought that was the chance gone.  Perhaps, just perhaps, this is a pattern that only signs off when it's given us a classic winter!    

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
4 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

After the way that model performed last winter, I couldn't care less what it shows.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

It's not really a concern, last year seasonal models were going for a -NAO & cold winter, the reality was an above average winter. Seasonal models are about as useful as a GFS +300 chart and aren't really worth paying attention to beyond a passing glance.

It is a major concern.

Last year they were painting a -NAO picture as a response to the big SSW we saw in late Dec/early Jan. They got the resultant trop response wrong but rightly saw the SSW. 

This year we have no SSW being picked up on and to me it looks like they are fairly unanimous on a simple winter +NAO. These models have high skill at being able to forecast scenarios like this which are close to climatological mean. It's scenarios which go against the climatological mean I.e blocking patterns, where these models struggle- as was seen last year.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, I sure won't be losing any sleep over what the seasonal forecasts (or even the seasonal forecasters) suggest...Seventeen times bitten, eighteen times shy!:oldgrin:

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