Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition

[Paul]

As we're starting to see more chat about the upcoming winter in other threads, here's a dedicated one for everyone to get their teeth into...

[Paul]

And just for fun, to get the ball rolling, white Christmas and New Year anyone?!

 

[SLEETY]

Be nice to get even one week,of cold and snowy weather in the winter.Seems ages  the last time it happened in the winter months and not springtime.Must be nearly ten years ago,asDec2010 is last time we had more than just a few inches here.

[Dorsetbred]

5 hours ago, Paul said:

And just for fun, to get the ball rolling, white Christmas and New Year anyone?!

 

Ah not if you live in the SW segment..

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

The updated Tropical Tidbits model shows temps around or a bit above average as a whole for winter with the exception of southern RIO & no strong signal for precipitation 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Dorsetbred said:

Ah not if you live in the SW segment..

just for the north on that chart

[Downburst]

28 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The updated Tropical Tidbits model shows temps around or a bit above average as a whole for winter with the exception of southern RIO & no strong signal for precipitation 

These are anomaly charts. I wouldn’t say there is no strong signal for precipitation, I read that as a strong signal for average, no anomaly in other words.

[Tim Bland]

[Downburst]

Just want to clarify something on the NAO index. The index is a measurement of the NAO phase. A stronger Icelandic low and stronger Azores high result in a more positive index, opposite phase for more negative, neutral is normal. So, my point is people often post the NOA is simply following the modeled output, well that’s correct of course as it uses pressure measurements, not like ENSO for instance. But the real question for this winter is this, what is driving strong Icelandic low pressure & Azore highs AND how variable will the phase lengths last? It won’t be eternal for 6 months for sure. Negative since mid September and forecast to be so out to the reliable period on NOAA site. I understand one can expect the signal to contribute 40% influence to these seasonal forecasts, there are other factors of course to consider. 

[Leon1]

4 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Be nice to get even one week,of cold and snowy weather in the winter.Seems ages  the last time it happened in the winter months and not springtime.Must be nearly ten years ago,asDec2010 is last time we had more than just a few inches here.

In Bath we got very heavy snow in the start if February but I think it was very localised to the South-west of the UK. Around 20cm here! Hoping even more than that widespread for everyone in the depth of winter and Christmas this year! 

[feb1991blizzard]

35 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

That is out of date now really, there have been lots more runs since then its just we havent seen them - the next one we see is due out at the end of next week.

[Don]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That is out of date now really, there have been lots more runs since then its just we havent seen them - the next one we see is due out at the end of next week.

Yes, although I fear it will look little different.  Don’t you just love an optimist?!

Edited October 4, 2019 by Don

[Sir Mim]

Watching TV weather forecasts this winter will be like watching one of Gav's weather vids no doubt, meaning that we'll be hearing the phrase "from off the Atlantic" a lot.  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, Mr TOAD said:

Watching TV weather forecasts this winter will be like watching one of Gav's weather vids no doubt, meaning that we'll be hearing the phrase "from off the Atlantic" a lot.  

Aye, definitely

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, definitely

Its my opinion the warming Atlantic is a bad omen for our winters.

Blocks these days just get blown away 99% of the time.

[NeilN]

The thing is, these long-range forecasts can change at a drop of a hat. Plus perhaps a bit of reverse psychology may work - predict mild, get cold?

I think we will get there. The problem is, we are just in an unfortunate position due to location and other outside factors. 

[MP-R]

If we’re going to be dealt a +NAO horror show, I just hope it’s of the anticyclonic variety. Could even get a mid latitude high out of it bringing sunny days, frost and fog.

[Chesil View]

Living within a few miles of the south coast in central southern England. 

I approach every winter  more in hope than expectation. I find that way that even just few cold days with the risk of snow can bring some real excitement.

The last two winters have brought heavy snow falls two in 2018 and one in 2019 added to these are the exceptional December of 2010 with several heavy falls. Jan 2012 and 2013 also brought significant snow. Slight accumulations also occured in 2015 as well. 

So for me the winters of the current decade have been much better than those of the noughties and the nineties for that matter. Both in terms of low minima and most certainly substantial snowfall.

What this winter will bring is still very much up in the air. I gave up on seasonal models ages ago as they are way too broad brush to pick up on even a fortnight of cold snowy weather at such long range. Yet a fortnight of cold and snowy weather ok n a winter would more suffice for all but the pickiest members on this forum.

The coming winter will bring what it brings, but if it can't be at least partly cold and snowy then let it be mild and dry as MP-R suggest in his post. Mild and wet for weeks on end is just so boring.

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I think there will be some surprises up winters sleeve this year..... When was the last time we had very disruptive pre-winter solstice snowfall?? 2010..
 

[SLEETY]

20 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Remember last winter and most the models were predicting HLB for D J and F and looked how that turned out,nearly the complete opposite lol.Dont think these  

seasonal models are even worth looking at,nevermind using them to forecasts seasons ahead

Edited October 5, 2019 by SLEETY

[Don]

2 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

I think there will be some surprises up winters sleeve this year..... When was the last time we had very disruptive pre-winter solstice snowfall?? 2010..

Yes, 2010 was a special year indeed!  Just a shame it all collapsed in January 2011.

[markw2680]

As it’s the start of October nobody has a clue what the winter will be like, it’s just guessing or hope casting at this stage. Maybe by the end of November we will have a better idea of what’s going on. But then again......

[Mike Poole]

Some early thoughts on winter from me. 

I sense from the number of posts on various threads that interest in the coming winter is higher than normal.  I suspect that is because there are a number of factors that might, other things notwithstanding, suggest a greater likelihood of a colder winter - low solar activity, -QBO (although probably not significant until later winter), various reasonings for a weaker polar vortex to begin with e.g. carry over from summer -AO, effect of low sea arctic ice etc.  

Quite a few posts on what can go wrong as well!  A couple of things that caught my interest, sea surface temperatures and the long-range models as of September.  SST anomaly  first, as of today:

Theres been quite a bit of a discussion of the above average SSTs in the North Pacific, and how this relates to the PDO.  Well it doesn't really, the PDO is neutral at the moment, but worth looking at the last decade or so anyway:

There is certainty an argument that could be made from that for a +PDO favouring a milder winter (13-17) and a -PDO favouring a colder winter (08-12).  But that doesn't look very relevant to this year.  And the warm waters in the Pacific seem to be subsiding, compare the SST anomaly from a month ago:

So I'm not sure how much faith I put in the argument that SSTs in the Pacific will scupper all chances of cold in the UK.  I'm actually more concerned about the Atlantic SSTs.  Most seasonal models show a gradual resurgence of a cold pool out west, and the Met Office Contingency Planners forecast specifically mentions current sub-surface cool water in this area, expected to manifest itself at the surface in due course - one to watch (I think cool SSTs in this area had a hand in scuppering otherwise reasonable chances of UK cold last year). 

Moving on to the long range models, the September suite were awful!  Or were they? Difficult to tell from a three month average over both uncertainty (considerable at this range) and time variability.  In any case it is a good basis to compare improvements in future updates!  One thing I noticed around the time that these updates came out last month, is that there were hardly any blocked runs on the monthly CFS charts.  

That has changed, here's one cherry picked blocked (probably) -AO month from the last 6 runs:

z

Only a few days until the October GloSea5 output - my bet is for a significant swing to northern blocking, a significant but lesser swing to UK favourable blocking, we will see.  

Too much uncertainty to attempt any kind of forecast, but whichever way it goes I think we will learn a good deal from this winter and the run up to it, as to ideas on making predictions now with significant changes over the Arctic.

Bring it on!

[Froze were the Days]

Sadly James Madden is at it again - The Mirror over the last day, still referring to him as an 'expert'...

“There is a strong chance of widespread frosts and the chance of snowfall which will set the scene for November.

“This will pave the way for what is shaping up to be a colder than average winter with some extreme cold weather events.

“While these could start to make an impact within the next few weeks they will be particularly troublesome from December onwards.

“Snow events have been few and far between in recent years, but this winter is looking favourable to bring snow event after snow event as weather systems from the Atlantic clash with cold stagnated air over the UK.

That's 2019/20 over then...

Edited October 5, 2019 by Froze were the Days