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Paul

Model Output Discussion - early October

Paul

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Quite an interesting trough feature looks likely to move across southern coastal counties through tonight perhaps some quite squally winds associated with them likely effecting more inland locations in southern England too aswell as that perhaps a stream of heavy showers moving through the Bristol Channel into the south Midlands home counties later in the night only the GFS and Arome seem to be keen on that trough so perhaps it may be less than what is being shown. All in all alot to keep an eye on. 👍

UK_RAIN1_19.thumb.jpg.e6a9b8b95c511c33f1cbad3d43e3b1bb.jpg

UK_RAIN1_25.thumb.jpg.872d04b4da2dfaf1ddf9affd8ee3a9f6.jpg

UK_RAIN1_26.thumb.jpg.586c448624b66ff69bdba7ae21c480ac.jpgUK_GUST_22.thumb.jpg.76cc40eb5559cf1bc8705d3fca1eca8c.jpg

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A quick glance at the NH profile Sun >Tuesday. Essentially it's about the trough in the eastern Atlantic being 'topped' up by the Greenland conduit but moving little longitudinally courtesy of the east European ridge. Ergo the UK remaining under the influence of unsettled weather, the detail to be decided

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-0968000.thumb.png.942e122a51f2bde1a66088392e5938f0.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-1054400.thumb.png.8b15eb29ed5ebfa12eaa5da7fd6ab549.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-1140800.thumb.png.34a12dee7170f5ff427dfb8c2c4c227b.png

gfs-natl_wide-z300_speed-1065200.thumb.png.f733e72fd30fb6bff07ffdfe0516a727.png

Overall no change in the medium term from the GEFS

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1486400.thumb.png.95be6e5a7ce93831a8415d60d8d3e445.png

 

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Not the clearest ensemble signal I've ever seen, I must admit...But there's certainly something there for everyone!?:oldgrin:

t850Suffolk.png   prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

Whatever floats yer boat!⛵

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Posted (edited)

Hope the coldies don't mind but there are some echoes of summer in the depths of autumn on the GEFS 12z with balmy continental warmth..indeed BBQ weather in late october..almost november!!🔥:shok:😁🌞

13_270_850tmp.thumb.png.607e29cb1e05617d21682f89dc888050.png13_270_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.009c217628df3e1b481c205cbd61048f.png14_318_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.8105bf98086c30e901ede8567324f0f6.png14_342_850tmp.thumb.png.65655e74880b4d11074316992439f419.png14_342_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.ce92cc5b4a44dffae341cd92b61152cb.png

 

Edited by JON SNOW

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Posted (edited)

great charts Jon, GFS got to be unerestimating temps off that setup, shame they won't happen

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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Posted (edited)

Looking at the Ecm 12z operational, yes it's unsettled, especially further n / nw but later in the run the Atlantic sting starts to wear off.. in the meantime, plenty more of these!🌈🌈🌈..not sure about the pot of gold though.😁

737196209_240_mslp500(1).thumb.png.b9e4391c9fe22a5ed86df3eea9f23f6c.pngrainbow-myth-2.thumb.jpg.dc5f01e7bfd07fb989c6b3db41080481.jpg

 

 

Edited by JON SNOW

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Wednesday morning looks like a fine start for many, with exceptions on the S/SW coast, where in the morning they will be treated to some sharp showers, with the potential of hail and thunder in some of these showers, and the majority of Scotland and Northern Ireland, where they will also be treated to some sharp showers. Parts of Central Southern England, East Anglia, and the North should have a bright, sunny morning, with a low chance of catching a shower. As the day progresses into the afternoon, literally everywhere will have a chance of catching a shower, and if you do catch one, it could be heavy and thundery. There should be some sunshine to enjoy in between the showers. It could be quite a windy day tomorrow also, so the showers will pass by quite quickly if you catch one. Temperatures tomorrow in the south should range from 10-16c, and 5-13c in the north.

Temperatures:

wednesday.thumb.png.728281914a93e1c8aef13683262ef18a.pngwednesday0.thumb.png.f754027307db34171c8df5feb41b7a4e.pngwednesday1.thumb.png.e9241828552cd073373d563dc8a38cd7.png

Precipitation:

wednesday2.thumb.png.0460ba1370d277683bdc95f5873c2010.pngwednesday3.thumb.png.39a5007109bfd114d32017f91bd00551.pngwednesday4.thumb.png.90f1f51155ddb20c821a22bcc75396d1.pngwednesday5.thumb.png.c9f39b0f5e3b761f476f275f3524b01d.png

Wind gusts:

wednesday6.thumb.png.87cab2973c20f3a594efac7a40d0420c.pngwednesday7.thumb.png.5f5fdd6a49728916acd8cf794dd44689.pngwednesday8.thumb.png.24e163c398d628c4c4323b01200d1c2f.png

Jetstream:

wednesday9.thumb.png.1586a2c4f327d9205fb4633a15f0996d.pngwednesday10.thumb.png.5c97075ff842f46db8cc39c189dec00c.pngwednesday11.thumb.png.563640817ceefd1b69b8663a7aa20013.pngwednesday12.thumb.png.21603ac1fd572779eb487b493ffc75b7.png

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46 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at the Ecm 12z operational, yes it's unsettled, especially further n / nw but later in the run the Atlantic sting starts to wear off.. in the meantime, plenty more of these!🌈🌈🌈..not sure about the pot of gold though.😁

737196209_240_mslp500(1).thumb.png.b9e4391c9fe22a5ed86df3eea9f23f6c.pngrainbow-myth-2.thumb.jpg.dc5f01e7bfd07fb989c6b3db41080481.jpg

 

 

As you rightly point out certainly no pot of gold judging by this run at the end of the rainbow, especially for those of a nervous disposition brought on by the fear of unseasonably mild weather. Should this latest output verify it would seem to suggest another 7/8 days of fairly unsettled weather before a dramatic turnabout to potential Indian summer like conditions.  Just when I thought it might be safe to put away the lawnmower till next March. 😖

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More of the same for the foreseeable sums things up. Despite though a rampant atlantic, no major storm systems are forecast as yet - neither any ex tropical storm feature, unlike recent weeks - could one spring up and change the course of things at short notice.. quite possibly, I feel this is what is needed to shake us out of the current trajectory which looks very static and uniform, with really nothing shifting or moving at all.

Time to take a break from model watching for a few days I think..

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Posted (edited)

According to the gfs this is the NH profile midday Monday

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-1043600.thumb.png.d4ed85d63fda63269bc7a4c49ec6cdad.png

And over the rest of the week the upper low over southern Greenland tracks south east as the east European ridge amplifies across northern Scandinavia

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-1227200.thumb.png.ea23eee7d0a4fe9246b93c1dfd07dedc.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-1389200.thumb.png.e5c9b00b444e5b110228d48f2fdc4b74.png

The ext GEFS mean anomaly still has the European ridge/east Atlantic trough in situ

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1702400.thumb.png.0f73421c3e3e039bea2d677ac439a6cf.png

Edited by knocker

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Posted (edited)

The ecm 5-10 mean anomaly would suggest remaining unsettled

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1443200.png

Edited by knocker

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Taking a look at the Gem model for rainfall accumulations for the next 10 days you can see it shows very high rainfall totals across a good swathe of the country in fact most of the rain accumulated in England and Wales may be from this weekends frontal wave gives you the idea that it will likely be a very wet weekend for some parts. Although the gem may be over doing the rain a little..

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAINACCUM_240.thumb.jpg.b858de1906b70536c07c96c4f5472399.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_240.thumb.jpg.4c8dde70963a9de086228d164cb5991c.jpg

Signs at days 9/10 of higher pressure having more influence for southern parts of the UK as the ECM is showing but this is too far out for certainty.. Not much has changed since yesterday still unsettled for the next week atleast. 👍☔

 

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A wee bit of potential at the back end of the GFS 00Z::oldgrin:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

But with, of course, no support from the ensembles:💤

t850Suffolk.png   prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

Back to the unicorn-hunting for me, then?🦄:oldgood:

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The locked in pattern remains-

Euro high /Icelandic low ..

Everything i detest about the UK climate in a nutshell.

image.thumb.png.a975188f4f23e31ff6c0a6998da215d7.png

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The locked in pattern remains-

Euro high /Icelandic low ..

Everything i detest about the UK climate in a nutshell.

image.thumb.png.a975188f4f23e31ff6c0a6998da215d7.png

 

But in October for a change,maybe this  year we will get the reversal of what usually happens during DJF  the above chart😩,the most hideous chart if your looking for snow during the winter

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The locked in pattern remains-

Euro high /Icelandic low ..

Everything i detest about the UK climate in a nutshell.

image.thumb.png.a975188f4f23e31ff6c0a6998da215d7.png

and it's been going on yonks! with only the odd brief pattern change...

Edited by Froze were the Days

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A chance of some late-season thundery activity? I'll take it!:yahoo:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

 

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2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

A chance of some late-season thundery activity? I'll take it!:yahoo:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

 

Some limited support for the first pulse of 'heat', but less-so, the second? Other than that, things all look pretty average for October:🤔

t850Suffolk.png   prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

The annual snooze-fest that is Autumn is now in full swing!💤

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image.thumb.png.4d1d389c35e26525714d1efb4f67afc7.png

Still flooding concerns in Wales, NW England and NW Scotland,with 3-5 inches of rain possible in the next 10 days. Driest in E Scotland and East Anglia.

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Referring back to my last post concerning the MJO 

It has persisted in phase 1 and the unsettled pattern has continued, certainly more autumnal but not ideal for those looking for drier weather. Pattern has matched closely with the expected for phase 1 (also amplitude 1) with the higher pressure that developed over scandi OctoberPhase1gt1500mb.thumb.gif.3e56e82796ea69affcb1ce3ae06811f4.gif gfsnh-2019100500-0-6.thumb.png.64813315e78f03e4624fd6b4165c8dcf.png looks like a brief crossover back into phase 8 before returning to phase 1 317808294_diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member(1).thumb.gif.a548f7a69ba11d7c611d6fb142ae6985.gif 328364097_CFSO_phase_small(2).thumb.gif.b781257f93d17a72a6ca35c8130d799c.gif  501468608_ECMF_phase_51m_small(3).thumb.gif.c6747cc82d5cbf7ea3421f0f2edcabc7.gif so perhaps a brief settled spell before a return the the unsettled autumnal conditions we are currently experiencing, here is phase 8 October with higher pressure through the UK up toward Greenland which a few of the ensembles are hinting at 458025194_OctoberPhase8all500mb(1).thumb.gif.6faa5eca0178fee1feab1db87767c5c0.gif  gensnh-2-5-360.thumb.png.3f724a4c543f0334ffe79913414393e4.png  gensnh-5-5-372.thumb.png.b7035e944f88bc3f9c1a1f1b6c268e4d.png  gensnh-7-5-348.thumb.png.3e4b000e309777499403d0c9007a4d3f.png gensnh-13-5-384.thumb.png.d2b75976cf7d1ac8a80126afa64a3544.png   

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Pretty garbage sums up the next 10-14 days, I think North West summed up proceedings well earlier, with it being the pattern most hated. Fortunately its still only October, so if it means having this stuck weather pattern for now, even into November.... I think most would take it, if it meant a much more favourable pattern setting up come December!! In the mean time here are a few ensembles, that at least offer the chance of a cold shot or 2 moving forward.... Keep on hunting folks, winter will perhaps arrive with a vengeance this year! 

gens-0-0-384.png

gens-8-0-324.png

gens-13-0-240.png

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Dwd icon definitely a wetter option with the 6 o'clock run with that wiggling frontal wave during Friday evening until the end of Sunday perhaps.. Giving a real soaking to England and Wales showing periods of weakening then intensification of that rain band throughout the weekend.. Definitely worth keeping a close eye on this feature.. 🌧️🌧️🌂

06_60_ukpreciptype.png

06_66_ukpreciptype.png

06_81_ukpreciptype.png

06_87_ukpreciptype.png

06_93_ukpreciptype.png

06_105_ukpreciptype.png

06_120_ukpreciptype.png

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No significant change with the GEFS mean anomaly outlook. Still the Euro ridge/east Atlantic trough in situ so continuing changeable

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1486400.thumb.png.739a0d39a41f7a9fdd9f497fe0e826fe.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1832000.thumb.png.8d5d5884188be7837e9e9c938bd5bfa5.png

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