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Model Output Discussion - early October


Paul
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Want to chat about the upcoming winter?
Please head to the winter speculation and chat thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire
    4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    Mr Extremes - your point is?

    I think the point hes making is that unsettled starts to November are good for a cold winter? 2009/2010 very cold 2012/2013 cold

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    3 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

    I think the point hes making is that unsettled starts to November are good for a cold winter? 2009/2010 very cold 2012/2013 cold

    Alleged pattern 'matches' are not conclusive. I've seen super wet stormy Novembers followed by 'the same' throughout Winter. But, i've seen the same Novembers 'produce' decent Winters, in terms of cold, snow. Unsettled Novembers can mean that LP systems increasingly follow a more Southerly track as the month, and into December, progresses, but imho it is inconclusive year after year.

    No, forget pattern matches. Each year is different. Dont get sucked in by the 'popular vote'.

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    Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
    1 hour ago, MR EXTREMES said:

    Rrea00120091109.thumb.gif.a0f0219da8e9bb515c450b06b132a556.gifRrea00120091102.thumb.gif.bac9e8540d8929ee70602743edaef7c2.gifRrea00120121102.thumb.gif.df4196e27501875c1d81bfcbe7f6a783.gifRrea00120121102.thumb.gif.df4196e27501875c1d81bfcbe7f6a783.gif

    This would suggest that unsettled November's have in the past led to colder than average winters at times but ofcourse there are many unsettled Novembers that ended up with a mild winter and there's no strong correlation between an unsettled November to precede a cold winter take the very next year 2013 for example was a pretty unsettled November then was followed by one of the mildest and stormiest winters on record.. (I guess that is a rather extreme example pardon the pun) ? anyway November's barely started so we shall see how patterns develop over the next 4 weeks there's hints of higher pressure towards mid month but best to not draw any conclusions just yet. ?:oldgood:

    Very lively in a few hours wouldn't be suprised to see some damage and disruption from an unnamed storm (likely due to a lot of uncertainty with precise wind speeds) also looking decidedly wet for central parts and Wales too Through much of the morning ahead continuing into the evening later though winds abate by then. 

    Icon.. 

    18_12_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.860313c9d1882aef188d703e4e6cdb1a.png

    18_18_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.ac05a7c84b7b9c4105cc88d57bda3974.png

    Hirlam.. 

    EUROPE_PRMSL_15.thumb.jpg.9d4a928344d5ce49216d9dde752a90af.jpg

    Edited by jordan smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The low associated with the latest trough crosses the country on Thursday, so another unsettled showery day, and is filling in the North Sea by midday Friday

    156.thumb.png.7fc740d30acf91d00a7bb6c02d04576c.png

    But as can be seen another upper low has arrived on the scene from the north west  so yet again the UK will be under an area of low pressure over the weekend with unsettled conditions prevailing.

    gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-3214400.thumb.png.543355ec134504ce344d0cfd6942f585.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-3344000.thumb.png.1733463d196bcfc22634fa21a63acf2e.png

    180.thumb.png.92c39cd90a769ea483db60077c308216.png204.thumb.png.4c7bb0aacd1d5531aabfd17db20ecca5.png

    The detail should be treated with caution

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: all weather
  • Location: Poole, Dorset
    3 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Possible sting jet? Looks like lots of cold dry air aloft being bought in and around the system!! 

    FACA148B-9198-406A-A83F-93FF82592B1E.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Now that is close, just to much energy coming from the nw. A cool/cold day10. Wild down here at the moment.

    ED9446CC-8ACC-4BE3-AF8A-0095BFB0F5FF.png

    3A9333C2-CABB-4172-8DA6-E0697B452924.png

    Edited by That ECM
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    34 minutes ago, Willsy said:

    Possible sting jet? Looks like lots of cold dry air aloft being bought in and around the system!! 

    FACA148B-9198-406A-A83F-93FF82592B1E.jpeg

    Well it's possible that there was one earlier with a gust of 67kts at Culdrose but I'm no expert on this

    PPVA89.thumb.gif.15263cf02415d3e2aaed2033718bd90c.gifwv.thumb.JPG.a6febfc6d21da45e7d5db2982ddd5c83.JPG

     

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: West Aberdeenshire
  • Location: West Aberdeenshire
    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    I think the 10/15 day period will be very interesting re the Canadian vortex and how far across the Atlantic it can force the flow ...I wouldn’t be hung up on any wintry sypnotics for us in the next three weeks - far better to see amplification and a big sceuro block (the further north the better) driving wave 2  to help weaken the SPV and possibly drive a TPV split into December 

    Agreed.

    Looking cooler with any snow confined to the northern mountains.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Pretty rubbish gfs this morning!!conveyer belt of lows coming in from the north west!!hardly any amplification in the atlantic or sliding lows!!the ridge that was forecasted around 120 hours has disappeared aswell!!lets hope ecm is on to something!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

    A stormy start to the day for Many southern regions but they are beginning to ease slowly especially inland but some very strong gusts with severe gales potentially in exposure continue for some areas in the far south east and the channel for the next few hours.. 

    Gem.. 

    EUROPE_PRMSL_12.thumb.jpg.39cbc95e27322a6fb947121568dc7d12.jpg

    Arome.. 

    UK_GUST_7.thumb.jpg.fdbeafb1bc7b07155854aabfd4493210.jpg

    UK_GUST_8.thumb.jpg.d30a5f6d0c73b77e8de36e4cbff761a0.jpg

    Temperatures relatively mild in the south but tempered by the stormy conditions. 

    00_15_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.f8c3edcfb33d0935d33be396270ac7f2.png 

    heavy rain continuing for Wales and other parts of the southwest today turning wet for many central regions this afternoon too as the wrap around area of rain moves northwards then will ease later tonight winds drop off and feeling chilly In most places though temperatures holding up in double figures it seems for the far south west.. 

    Arome.. 

    329077580_UK_GUST_17(1).thumb.jpg.75c0acc4004b8f5fd86c05eeeea9c497.jpg

    UK_RAIN1_7.thumb.jpg.52057a1b7b09e89446f6cd6151a5b4ea.jpg

    UK_RAIN1_10.thumb.jpg.f9ae787ec0404a61fd597f40f791371c.jpg

    1879329129_UK_RAIN1_13(1).thumb.jpg.95b3198cbeee76edae5ad66288bf79d3.jpg

    Arpege.. 

    00_30_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.78b34ce3c3993979aac9f02a835a8d9f.png

    Looks like we aren't the only ones having stormy conditions central and western France looking very lively tomorrow morning as a southerly tracking depression moves through. :oldgood:

    GFS.. 

    EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_24.thumb.jpg.bd46397b792e7cc91911c9909d961ed6.jpg

    Icon.. 

    EUROPE_PRMSL_GUST_24.thumb.jpg.86b658a3a011de4542e4a7bd823f0f19.jpg

    Edited by jordan smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Considerable scatter evident among the GEFS 06Z pressure- ensembles, though less so regarding temps...The GFS Operational even seems to be behaving itself today??

    prmslLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

    t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Please hold off posting now as a new thread is on the way.

    Thanks all.

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