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Model Output Discussion - early October


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Day 10, it might not look great but very cold uppers not too far away in Scandy, poss reload as heights still around Greeny. Much much smaller PV over Canada compared to 06z. Some very cold nights in that slack flow around Scandy. Pretty happy with that!! 

B3A3B7B5-5B2C-4AEF-ACA7-1972DB069C8B.png
 

27396653-4045-4AA1-8614-07655F58F296.png
 

just to show the 06z PVs size below, different ball park!! 

9DE03B2A-67CB-4FE0-9B33-B0699F7A8AF9.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

I much prefer the 12z FI, I’d be quite exited by it if it wasn’t for all those long range models. That is not a standard looking Nov chart at all!! 

FEA48CD2-DB77-420B-A749-EFD0C64BD2EC.png

A1CEE377-8BA2-4321-BA65-9D2DF366DACD.png
A little bit of WAA and we’d be looking at a very cold late Nov - if only 

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Anyone heading for an early ski trip to the Alps should be praying this 12z GFS run is correct, looks like most resorts get a hammering! Even Scottish ski resorts would have an early opening

F0038DDE-60E1-489B-93DD-C5867F2CE53D.png

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

As long as we see LP systems heading SE into Europe there will be little prospect of mild south westerlies ...

 

indeed my thoughts exactly.

i do not however buy into the greenland ridge way to much energy blasting through this area.

but the nw southeast directions you rightly pointed out are a little cause for optimism with mediterranean unsettled which was a bonus feature in 09/10.

but with chaos theory involved id be skeptical of greenland heights at this point.

but of coarse just my opinion.

 

putting the gfs 192, gem 192, and the gefs at 192 it does look below average temps above average rainfall.

often windy cool to cold wet.

scotland and northern england high ground very likely to see some wintriness.

now we await the ecm,

but i wouldn't trust any forecast beyond 5 to 7 day timeframe.

.962155932_gfs-0-192(1).thumb.png.44a049ec08e40c1282f1f0ba3c4e10cb.pnggens-0-1-192.thumb.png.fab1b79b0da7fc54de4009b504f7d8de.pnggem-0-192.thumb.png.913e5556268fe993ee5021c2fe8d051d.png

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, knocker said:

Exeter has the low deepening by 18mb in 18 hours. I'm assuming because of the close proximity to the left exit if the jet. Any thoughts would be appreciated @johnholmes

PPVA89.thumb.gif.22d82e0140e590948a96aa95711449d8.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.5abbb2de23024229fe49dd96dbb6e873.gifgfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-2663600.thumb.png.4e5402f4b26fab0d181cafeaefbb795a.png

I'll have a look lad

A quick look and in a word=yes

For anyone interested then take a look at the jetstream at T+00 with the surface pattern on the same chart. Follow them to T+18 and note how the surface low has deepened, turn to the T+24 as the surface feature, having deepened at the left exit, then been steered to the left of its flow. As per basic meteorology is then away from the left exit of the jet and begins to fill.

A very good example-thanks k.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

anyway for the coldies i have a plan we can hirer donald trump to build us a wall in the mid atlantic like this mornings ecm.

mind you something like this but with the block bit further north into greenland would work.

gens-0-1-360.thumb.png.58fd3ab42ba9703fd988900c284f7d7e.png

but unlikely to be even close to the evolution projected of coarse.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
4 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

anyway for the coldies i have a plan we can hirer donald trump to build us a wall in the mid atlantic like this mornings ecm.

mind you something like this but with the block bit further north into greenland would work.

gens-0-1-360.thumb.png.58fd3ab42ba9703fd988900c284f7d7e.png

but unlikely to be even close to the evolution projected of coarse.

What, like P8

D0D0315F-BA25-45AF-8794-A73F72F3C3F2.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
7 minutes ago, knocker said:

The GEFS extended mean sure looks familiar

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-3819200.thumb.png.b2ac7066ea384c1d22d183e19850ab04.png

Upstream certainly looks too potent to allow anything other than transient greeny ridging...… you would think that the mid rangemodelling that has played with scandi height rises (possibly sceuro) will prove more reliable.  as referenced earlier, the low w euro anomaly is the feature that coldies need to see sustained

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Anyone heading for an early ski trip to the Alps should be praying this 12z GFS run is correct, looks like most resorts get a hammering! Even Scottish ski resorts would have an early opening

F0038DDE-60E1-489B-93DD-C5867F2CE53D.png

Indeed they would

 

Scandinavia would be good too

 

IF GFS verified at +360hrs!

 

image.png

image.png

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 12z I will be astonished, not to mention gutted if there doesn't turn out to be at least some wintry weather during the next few weeks. At the very least, northern hills and mountains will surely get some snow and we should all feel a late autumn chill at times with overnight frosts but there's plenty more water to flow under the bridge, so to speak before that.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Yes indeed Karl, a fair few wintry ensembles amongst the 12z ensembles again, ranging from screaming Nthly to a treat from the East! I think the next 2 weeks are at least looking seasonal, perhaps a few surprises thrown in. 

gens-1-1-312.png

gens-2-1-228.png

gens-2-0-240.png

giphy.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 192

Vortex looks to be struggling - although there could be even better news in the strat. forecasts today...

 

On the ECM? - cannot see all that much on the GFS, or very minor? - have you got the details please?

EDIT : good ECM run so far though.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.7546ee1a37de231d737aa5314b81fddf.png

Pick the bones out of that one then!!

Disclaimer, it is a day 10 chart..

Not much from the Atlantic that’s for sure, interesting to see what happens over the next few days.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I feel I don't need to add any comments to these charts as it has all been said previously/ But just to reiterate that the surface analysis still remains tricky with a few options on the table which hopefully the det runs will clarify in the coming days.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-3797600.thumb.png.f4bc72147d93084ae83b374cf053de57.png814day_03.thumb.gif.0b1d509d22f74bc21fbdf6ca459a7e89.gif

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z operational certainly brings an early taste of winter to scotland with minus 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 uppers (T850's) at times so I would imagine there would be a risk of snow up there next week into the following week, especially with elevation but probably occasionally to modest levels.

96_thickuk.thumb.png.232bfd32c328e9513511dfa85d375675.png120_thickuk.thumb.png.a94b85dcbfa663bef334f3793280be40.png168_thickuk.thumb.png.54cfaa84a776b87336182b49976004f6.png192_thickuk.thumb.png.5a8103f2a8d4582c911cf9b44cd2986f.png216_thickuk.thumb.png.0d00db67becdcbe1fa57b4ffb789d763.png240_thickuk.thumb.png.6334ffd8f5d60657d6604874234bf1e6.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, JON SNOW said:

The Ecm 12z operational certainly brings an early taste of winter to scotland with minus 5 / 6 7 / 8 uppers (T850's) at times so I would imagine there would be a risk of snow up there next week into the following week, especially with elevation but probably occasionally to modest levels.

Mean Easterly, albeit without advertisement of anything frigid uppers wise on the ECM mean, but not mild anywhere really and a deviation from the norm.

image.thumb.png.efa4b9f98c596057c834a3ae73391c74.png

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Mean Easterly, albeit without advertisement of anything frigid uppers wise on the ECM mean, but not mild anywhere really and a deviation from the norm.

image.thumb.png.efa4b9f98c596057c834a3ae73391c74.png

That is ofcourse good signs for a few cold suprises in the coming weeks perhaps but no certainties

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The ECM mean continues the colder theme, with the mean still below the freezing level that several days back to back now.... Keep it up for several weeks and we will be in business

EDM0-120.gif

EDM0-168.gif

EDM0-216.gif

EDM0-240.gif

graphe_ens3 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Some wild swings in pressure, come the latter stages of the GEFS 12Z ensembles, but temps look like 'stabilising' between about 0-6C...So no whiteout, but nothing all that mild, either...?

prmslLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Still looking Very windy for tomorrow the exact wind gusts seem uncertain but when aren't they! gonna be a rough day for the south especially if your on the south coast. It does look like a brief period of the strongest winds but during a busy rush hour and morning. 

12_22_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.3bfc1379ed87e848d2b8b16ab538b6c7.png

12_24_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.f21a4117d2dd905ebb129c486fd8e29f.png

GFS ensembles are still showing quite consistent rainfall through the first half of November. But more of note is upper air temperatures showing a consistent trend towards below average temperatures. 

727142394_ens_image(18).thumb.png.5a9d20fe81c1535703bedc34a1bd8b03.png

Edited by jordan smith
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