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Model Output Discussion - early October


Paul
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Want to chat about the upcoming winter?
Please head to the winter speculation and chat thread.

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33 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Roll up, roll up. Get your dark purple and black colours to the NW of the UK here! No money on you? Don't worry, there will be plenty more to go around for the next 4 months!

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A classic case of selective deafness.

In this case the saying Dark purples & blue to the NW of the uk but avoiding the big ridge of yellow / orange directly ahead of the vortex.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:


A classic case of selective deafness.

In this case the saying Dark purples & blue to the NW of the uk but avoiding the big ridge of yellow / orange directly ahead of the vortex.

 

All in jest @Steve Murr, it doesn't actually look that bad.

As long as that Iberian trough props things up it should be ok. If that disappears and everything collapses south then we could be looking at what we see all too often.

image.thumb.png.7f29a9bf01582bcd0ae0d225dbb7b55e.pngimage.thumb.png.a7699c760e79790549e9a97dbb20b45f.png
 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 6z postage stamps there's snow potential next week and the following week, especially further north and more so on northern hills but it does show a few early cold shots lining up over the next couple of weeks or so..not much sign of sw'ly zephyrs....ohh la la!!

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.

Snow is almost a certainty for the Scottish mountains next week. Cairngorm and Glenshee look favoured.

Edited by Sceptical
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Indeed Karl -- there're plenty of opportunities for wintryish stuff to come, these coming two-weeks, even at Day 16 (I know it'll never happen!:oldgrin:) we're stuck under a kind of block, that doesn't know where to go...?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

The GEFS 06Z ensembles are also suggestive of some HP-dominated nothingness:

prmslLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

But, and perhaps more importantly, the signal for repeated bouts of heavy rain appear to be weakening...?:oldgood:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Fab posts guys... Have not seen so much interest so early since 2010....surely not!!!! Yet again so many cold ensembles from the 6z...if the UK is not under a cold pool, we have one tantalisingly close over the next couple of weeks!!! The ensembles from the 6z show the decent amount of cold runs, and the ECM mean from the 0z was again encouraging!! Happy days so far me thinks... 

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gens-11-0-264.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Little sign on the eps in the extended period of any typically autumnal zonal groupings 

The more mobile set is on a nw/se jet with systems diving se in our vicinity rather than the trough disrupting se against the blocking to our ene

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Little sign on the eps in the extended period of any typically autumnal zonal groupings 

The more mobile set is on a nw/se jet with systems diving se in our vicinity rather than the trough disrupting se against the blocking to our ene

So basically similar pattern to what we gona see next week!!i take that!!

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Hey so a very windy night tonight then fairly stormy for the south tomorrow daytime you can see it clear with the arpege and Icon. Persistent spells of rain for Wales and central England accompanying the very strong perhaps damaging wind gusts for a time. 

00_31_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.032bb04c7c029a9ab0a129e928a13284.png

945076123_00_34_ukpreciptype(1).thumb.png.4d2ebb4769a11b6f6fa2656a2b9b762a.png

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1963680694_06_33_ukpreciptype(1).thumb.png.ce787ba511f14488f67a4849de8cff84.png

Arpege showing wind gusts of 70mph or more for the south west by morning with gusts upto 70mph for the Channel and south Western parts through the morning with 50-60mph elsewhere for southern parts of England and Wales clearing quickly by the afternoon though from the west. 

00_30_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.b8a5ec2483ac3bb3ca9f448953a968fa.png

00_36_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.06302535b399c2a17e54e3c66a3c1b02.png

00_38_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.923fd95fc1204f16f4236aa38628d457.png

Icon though has a more concerning scenario with the low pressure system more vigorous bringing a swathe of 80-90mph for the channel coasts with 50- 70mph for a short time through inland areas of southern England and Wales. 

06_24_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.f7f56a12355d4933f329f5d76c89aa95.pngI

06_30_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.aa67d9121ca9edd824f3c99ec12e1923.png

06_33_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.c32720e77f30334abdba1fafb26d777d.png

Guess we'll see what the Icon shows later but I expect it to go for the Arpege's option which is less severe but even so a named storm is quite likely.

5 day rainfall accumulations though from the Icon for example shows how wet it may be particularly for Eastern Scotland. :oldgood:

06_120_ukprecipacc (1).png

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
31 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Little sign on the eps in the extended period of any typically autumnal zonal groupings 

The more mobile set is on a nw/se jet with systems diving se in our vicinity rather than the trough disrupting se against the blocking to our ene

Anything like next weeks set up would become more potent as Nov goes on, definitely good for the Scottish ski industry and I’m sure they have fingers crossed. A U.K. wide cold event in Nov with a nw/se trajectory  would require some decent heights into Southern Greenland you’d think, In order to tap into proper cold uppers etc, not likely if that PV fires up. There’s a few stonking ENS though, I guess anything is possible. 
FYI by mid next week the freezing level is around 400-600M in Scotland. 

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Both the ecm and the gfs have been playing around with amplification of subtropical zones in the 8-10 period and the clusters, although are not adverse to going along with this to some extent, you wouldn't put money on any durable resistance to pressure from the west

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-3344000.thumb.png.f172bfb5a8d9696752047ed60418d046.png

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019110100_216.thumb.png.6959174fb76421e4928b12682eb3baec.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019110100_240.thumb.png.5d3f1538cd3cd95e81e06f2367bc3458.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
17 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

^^ first,  hope you are OK, Jordan.

Yeah I am thankyou Mike didn't see this until now. Liking your in depth posts too! Looking like a lively weekend to say the least for particularly the south. :oldgood:

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Tonight's and tomorrow severe gales is getting more interesting as I think the tone of it has gone UP slightly with pressure falling to around 965MB now and the tightness of the isobars look more closer together now, could be a nasty low this if albeit the period of the strongest winds probably won't last too long. 

Further ahead as others say the outlook is looking fairly cool at the moment, the questions are just how will any ridging in the Atlantic play out and how quick do the lows pull away to try and drag colder air down from the North. I noticed on more recent runs, the low that will dominate this weekends weather are not pulling away as quickly as first thought but a brief northerly should still occur regardless though. Interesting outlook but nothing too significantly cold just yet. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any update on on 12z ukmo and gfs

I prefer ukmo Doesn’t mean it’s correct tho

6CDD7D65-59E9-4575-9338-FFE6BD1B63A6.png

8E2E16C5-6C36-4BC3-B558-7A68EE2F222A.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

This could be a better run by day 10, better heights around Greeny At day 7.

Top image is the 06z

B8919FF9-C215-4E87-8602-30A68BBCF3F1.png

5EAF60D2-49C1-4DBF-AAC1-906FFB282340.png
even more noticeable at day 7, the PV to the West of Greeny is better shaped with regards delaying - more vertical eastern edge!! 
 

8C43695E-F5B7-4CC2-93EF-3FE5A46469AA.jpeg

Which helped get this at day 8 - Greeny high!! No idea how it will help or hinder into FI - better chance of a Scandy HP maybe !! 

FCAEF8A0-B107-4424-A43D-79D3AFF9F21D.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
5 hours ago, knocker said:

The midnight and 06 outputs. Ooh la la

80979911_gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-330080000.thumb.png.f1049bd4294b0a61bd02e50f3c35549f.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-3300800.thumb.png.e7aa3f9ce11a8493189c0120b7cea938.png

Quite. That is a particularly nasty low anomaly over the U.K. running up against a likely developing ridge. Anyone for rain?

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