Model Output Discussion - early October

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Deep into fi, and GFS just piles those low pressure systems our way. At this stage, perhaps a transition to cooler conditions!! One thing for sure is, there is gonna be rain a plenty, and for some up North, that's not necessarily a good thing! Just a few weeks ago, folk were begging for rain... Well you got your wish.... I thing somebody must have been doing a raindance On a positive note, let's hope these very unsettled conditions don't spill into November!! Keep a smiling folk... Winter will soon be upon us, and rather than.. Rain man... Let's hope for Jack Frost. 

Edited October 7, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

57 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

and rather than.. Rain man...

Looking at the GEFS today there are a few colder members appearing again longer term which wasn't the case yesterday, indeed it was a warm fest but today there are some close shaves with northern cold....I still have hopes that somewhere in the uk will be building a late october Snow man...Dustin Hoffman isn't required!

Edited October 7, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

Hardly one the history books, though is it?

   

   

I was about to say 'roll on winter', but it sounds too-much like a cheap snow-scented underarm deodorant!

[knocker]

A quick look at the weekend with the ecm. The positively tilted trough to the west starts to deconstruct as the trough that has tracked down from Canada merges with it by midnight Saturday Thus low pressure is in charge of a very unsettled weekend with pulses of heavy rain running up a waving front through Saturday and Sunday effecting the southern half of the country. And by midnight Monday more frontal rain is approaching from west

 

[tinybill]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

A quick look at the weekend with the ecm. The positively tilted trough to the west starts to deconstruct as the trough that has tracked down from Canada merges with it by midnight Saturday Thus low pressure is in charge of a very unsettled weekend with pulses of heavy rain running up a waving front through Saturday and Sunday effecting the southern half of the country. And by midnight Monday more frontal rain is approaching from west

 

after  the lastweek  end   downpoor  that the last thing the east  needs !!

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, tinybill said:

after  the lastweek  end   downpoor  that the last thing the east  needs !!

It's nearly a week away so the position of the front could easily alter in that time.

 

[Jordan S]

Still signs of very wet weather through England and Wales potentially during the weekend coming as others have shown too with a frontal wave bringing pulses of heavy rain for much of Saturday and Sunday perhaps culminating in a rather deep low with more heavy rain Monday Tuesday next week? Though that's way to far out for certainty the ECM keeps things very unsettled through next week with more belts of rain so flooding could become a more widespread issue but the outlook may change between now and then. The plants will definitely be enjoying this wet weather.. Not some of us anyway..

[Frosty.]

Most of the Ecm 12z operational can be summed up in one word...UNSETTLED...but there is some respite at times for the s / se and especially by the end of the run across southern uk, especially the SE when it looks more benign but before that it's atlantic lows dominating the uk with rainbows aplenty. 

Edited October 7, 2019 by JON SNOW

[damianslaw]

For the foreseeable staying very unsettled with a deep atlantic trough anchored down over the UK, going nowhere fast, and a jet aligned on a generally W-E path, the effects will be copious amounts of rain, frontal systems moving rapidly through the UK, sometimes developing a wave only to add to high rainfall totals, nothing overly windy, and limited chance of any long lasting settled weather - especially further west and north. A very typical set up for October, but not something we have really experienced in recent Octobers with have seen alot in the way of anticyclonic conditions.

Further low pressure systems look to be ejected from out of NW Canada, preventing atlantic ridge development from building north anytime soon.

October looks like being a very wet month indeed, at this early stage. 

We might begin to see the trough edge further east in time, which may allow a shot of colder polar air from the NW at some stage, but I expect energy to the far NW to quickly kill off the chances of anything sustained - though we may see a bit more in the way of polar maritime air in second half of the month.

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

The frontal system that brought yesterdays rain has finally cleared away to the east so a relatively bright start to the day for most. But we are still within the circulation of the deep low to the NW so a breezy day , particularly in the north with frequent heavy showers. These will be concentrated more over Scotland and N. Ireland and by late morning and the afternoon around a front/trough tracking east over southern England and Wales

Through tonight the proximity of the low will continue to bring strong winds and squally heavy showers to western Scotland and N. Ireland and a trough running around in the circulation will do the same to the south west of England and south Wales. Elsewhere a dry and mainly clear night

Tomorrow the low is still very close to northern Scotland so another windy day, particularly again in the north, with frequent showers. But worth a quick look upstream over North America where Attic air has plunged down central Canada and the western US courtesy of the trough, but more to the point the upper low that is going to disrupt the block and track around Greenland can clearly be seen

And whilst this is going on another trough has slipped into mid Atlantic and phased with the trough to the north and thus by Thursday there is a positively aligned trough just to the west of Ireland so the country still resides under complex area of low pressure and thus still unsettled with showers, perhaps longer periods of rain, and sunny intervals.

By Friday the country is still under the influence of complex low pressure so another day of sunshine and showers but perhaps quite windy with longer periods of rain around eastern Scotland. Note the door is now ajar over Greenland

Comes Saturday troughs dominate over Greenland and the eastern Atlantic and a frontal wave is bringing rain to southern areas of the country

Edited October 8, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

It's becoming very tricky here as the trough disrupts as other troughs track south east from  Greenland because the movement of this front is integral to the distribution of the rain in the south

From this point rather than attempt further detail the 7-12 GEFS should suffice. Nu further comment necessary

[Methuselah]

The tail-end of the GFS 00Z looks promising...for a chart at T+384 that is!

    

Though the over all decline in temps is not really supported by the ensembles:

   

   

[knocker]

The ecm develops quite a vigorous wave on the front next Sunday and tracks it NE to phase with the main trough to the west. None of this set in stone yet

[mb018538]

Nothing to really add again today. Deep trough parked in our locale still out to day 10 with no end in sight. Wet and windy. Flooding risk. See you all in 24 hours for the same forecast.

[knocker]

The EPS mean anomalies are much the same as has been indicated over the last few days  So leaving out all the waffle essentially the trough/low pressure remains influential in the eastern Atlantic, albeit perhaps weakening a tad. Ergo staying unsettled with generally temps around average.As always the rainfall charts should not be taken too literally but is nothing else the give an idea of the distribution as must be noted in north west Scotland

Last evening's NOAA pretty much on the same page

[legritter]

Great posts on this forum ,great charts  ,very interesting weather .This weekend  could be very  newsworthy. Its great to have such a good gang of fellow posters ,makes our hobby very interesting, compared to before the Internet ,take care gang ,STellas all round .

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 0z mean it's a predominantly unsettled atlantic driven outlook but there's signs of some relaxation once we hit the last third of the month with more of a north / south split with southern uk, especially the SE becoming more benign. Looking through the perturbations there is potential for a long draw warm southerly flow with temperatures considerably above average but I should also mention that there is also a possibility of a late october arctic snap / spell with wintry showers and widespread frosts.

 

Edited October 8, 2019 by JON SNOW

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Unsettled sums up the next few days, the weekend especially so. Still tentative signs of a slight falling away of those temps come day 10,according to the mean, nothing to unusual at this stage though. I think we have a winter storm to hit parts of Canada and North America in the next few days, with a contrast in temps of some 25c.Even now we have falling snow in Canada... Not overly unusual, and let's hope its a sign for us as we move further ahead!!! Who knows. 

[Jordan S]

GFS still showing a stubborn frontal wave pushing northeastwards across particularly parts of Wales and northern England during Friday then shows it edging further south and nearly stalling for southern parts of England with heavier pulses of rain pushing through like a ripple effect during Saturday and Sunday perhaps breaking up at times? The GFS has been pretty consistent with this frontal wave in the last few days although details will likely change as is usually the case. Definitely unlikely to be any quick way out of this stubborn unsettled pattern for the next week or 2.

 

Edited October 8, 2019 by jordan smith

[knocker]

Just before and just after this sounding we had  couple of torrential downpours and it's quite possible the radiosonde was in a Cb here  with tops possible to around 18, 000 - 20, 000 feet

 

Edited October 8, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Through this evening and overnight the low and associated occlusion will drift quite close to the Hebrides so the frequent heavy showers will  continue over western Scotland, and possible N. Ireland, in the strong and gusty westerly wind. Elsewhere showers will tend to die out except after around 2300 they will become heavy and more frequent again in south west England and perhaps south Wales courtesy of a trough tracking east in the circulation of the low.  Later tomorrow morning quite likely a repeat performance with another trough

Edited October 8, 2019 by knocker

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Just before and just after this sounding we had  couple of torrential downpours and it's quite possible the radiosonde was in a Cb here  with tops possible to around 18, 000 - 20, 000 feet

 

Just look at the depth of the 'jet', say winds above 90-95, from 500 150 mb. Not often it extends through that depth.

[Frosty.]

Noticed there was quite a bit of support from the GEFS 6z for a polar / arctic maritime shot just beyond mid month with possible scandi trough / mid atlantic ridge scenario.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

13 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Noticed there was quite a bit of support from the GEFS 6z for a polar / arctic maritime shot just beyond mid month with possible scandi trough / mid atlantic ridge scenario.

Yes Karl I've noticed some colder runs appearing on the 6Z...the one is very Interesting.... Warm air to the SW and fidgid air to our NE.... battle of the masses....... Bring it on. 

[Methuselah]

Aye chaps, something may be brewing...a Mexican stand-off?

   

Edited October 8, 2019 by Ed Stone