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Paul

Model Output Discussion - early October

Paul

Want to chat about the upcoming winter?
Please head to the winter speculation and chat thread.

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^^^ You left out the most important chart of all ^^^ 

See strat thread.

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Following a brief lull towards / during midweek the Ecm 0z ensemble mean really cranks up the unsettled weather once again.

EDM1-72.thumb.gif.2c4b020570c2ff499b01792d6f1b5770.gifEDM1-96.thumb.gif.ecd447f9b9c23626886cd2be6aa4f52e.gifEDM1-168.thumb.gif.0e9b9fb27ced87760598cd0409cbf970.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.034f6616dc6f5f2d678a738016274c22.gifEDM1-216.thumb.gif.e52ec40f688bd4fa728a7df3be10afa6.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.ed65ddcfd6b683bc1e4f166ce125b012.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.6bc1838c2fc52c498aef01f9dfbe3aca.gif

PS..unlucky wales today..bruising well fought battle!👍

 

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8 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Following a brief lull towards / during midweek the Ecm 0z ensemble mean really cranks up the unsettled weather once again.

EDM1-72.thumb.gif.2c4b020570c2ff499b01792d6f1b5770.gifEDM1-96.thumb.gif.ecd447f9b9c23626886cd2be6aa4f52e.gifEDM1-168.thumb.gif.0e9b9fb27ced87760598cd0409cbf970.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.034f6616dc6f5f2d678a738016274c22.gifEDM1-216.thumb.gif.e52ec40f688bd4fa728a7df3be10afa6.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.ed65ddcfd6b683bc1e4f166ce125b012.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.6bc1838c2fc52c498aef01f9dfbe3aca.gif

PS..unlucky wales today..bruising well fought battle!👍

 

It does but the direction of travel (and the spreads) is a little further south with the trough 

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12 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Following a brief lull towards / during midweek the Ecm 0z ensemble mean really cranks up the unsettled weather once again.

EDM1-72.thumb.gif.2c4b020570c2ff499b01792d6f1b5770.gifEDM1-96.thumb.gif.ecd447f9b9c23626886cd2be6aa4f52e.gifEDM1-168.thumb.gif.0e9b9fb27ced87760598cd0409cbf970.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.034f6616dc6f5f2d678a738016274c22.gifEDM1-216.thumb.gif.e52ec40f688bd4fa728a7df3be10afa6.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.ed65ddcfd6b683bc1e4f166ce125b012.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.6bc1838c2fc52c498aef01f9dfbe3aca.gif

PS..unlucky wales today..bruising well fought battle!👍

 

Definitely does :oldgood:and like others have pointed out some rather interesting undercutting scenarios being thrown out by the operational ECM making for interesting model watching atm. 🙂👀

155425457_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_192(1).thumb.jpg.c85b7e43b2705b3ffa7a483064f6b1cb.jpg

1998395700_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_168(1).thumb.jpg.81cd0cd2634153e15289f67021326e1b.jpg

437753508_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_240(6).thumb.jpg.756005f9cc90f73b960c52776a6e972f.jpg

GFS ensembles showing some sudden big rainfall spikes from the 31st October.. Could be something to keep a close eye on.. This really wet October pattern looks likely to stay into the first part of November currently. 

314474109_ens_image(13).thumb.png.12494afb1f03d0af550c0ff23354a614.png

Edited by jordan smith

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Trough more negatively tilted on 6z mean than same stage on 0z mean, should be more blocked members come the end of the run.

image.thumb.png.95ac283720673422a4f700be99fa0714.png

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Well, hard luck Wales - back to the weather.

Sun 27th October

Ec-gfs both change, over the 24-36 hour period to a very trough dominated pattern.

Noaa has height rises in a band, along with ridging, from off Norway to western Greenland.

The contour flow fits to some extent what ec-gfs show and they also have height rises and ridging, especially on ec, similar to noaa.

To be honest I’ll sit on the fence for a day or two but I suspect, at least in the early part of 6-10 days the weather at the surface will show changeable rather than settled for much of the uk!

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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If the GFS 06Z Operational) is anywhere near right, we might need a decompression chamber, come Day 16?:shok:

   h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

prmslLeicestershire.png    t850Leicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png    prcpLeicestershire.png

FI may well be useless but at least it's entertaining!:oldgrin:

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The GEFS 6z mean tells an increasing unsettled zonal story beyond the more benign blip around midweek, the Atlantic really cranks up in the mid / longer term but looking through the individual members there is some wintry potential as well as some mild outcomes..nothing screams an early taste of winter but that doesn't preclude that possibility..again i'm trying to be balanced rather than hopecasting!👍

Edited by JON SNOW

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4 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

The GEFS 6z mean tells an increasing unsettled zonal story beyond the more benign blip around midweek, the Atlantic really cranks up in the mid / longer term but looking through the individual members there is some wintry potential as well as some mild outcomes..nothing screams an early taste of winter but that doesn't preclude that possibility..again i'm trying to be balanced rather than hopecasting!👍

Surprised your taking the gfs and what is it showing in the mid/long range and making conclusion from that.

I Would wait to all models are showing the same sort of situation before coming to your conclusion,if they do at all.

Edited by Blessed Weather
Comments removed.

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Current sat image showing yesterdays front trailing from Russia < northern France < to ex Pablo. Some cloud associated with this could well be effecting here as Thick Ci has invaded the sky from the south recently

meteosat-msg_naturalenhncd_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.ea4148df74a57717270d3e5801552b99.jpg2019102712.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.6962abe23134b0cdf171192f620cec66.gif

And further to the west can be seen the trough that is undergoing rapid cyclogenesis at the moment, and which later in the week will effect out weather as it undergoes a transformation into an elongated trough with a positive tilt, courtesy of upstream developments and some subtropical high amplification, before finally splitting

PPVA89.thumb.gif.d76adc493b58ae87515309a320c2b282.gifgfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-2523200.thumb.png.2f8b836af5c65cfd19c7396a8ffd1782.png

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Turning the cup "upside down". In switch to polar emphasis..

And drip-too-layer consequences!!

And also my already mentioned (previous) artctic vortex awakening...then die!!

 

Yo add quickly...then on more mirror (micro scales(=,wrapped height formats..from the Scandinavia scope/too- the Greenland ones...

It's all on course...but to busy to exact on .....EXACTING..

 

But will later !!!..

Also quickly my past notions of undercutting/chanel low season...

 

Will be back this evening..

Models are engaging!!!...

And enlightening!

Edited by tight isobar

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Strange use of the word undercut. Underpinning perhaps? Or preferably a strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic running just south of the UK

gfs-natl_wide-z250_speed-2998400.thumb.png.5c8c3af9092fc85b61ca120a38d4b11e.png

Edited by knocker

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28 minutes ago, knocker said:

Apparently Pablo has briefly attained Hurricane status

index.thumb.png.96bdd019f058452b9aa4281e93a1e101.png

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/

Amazing how far north it is, intensified over waters of only 19-20C according to the National Hurricane Center forecast discussion, which throws away the usual 26C+ for a hurricane to form.

Given it will soon move over SSTs of 17-18C, like you say it will be a brief Hurricane. 

 

145154_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

hwrf-p_sst_noice_18L_5.png

hwrf-p_mslp_wind_18L_5.png

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Looks like UKMO has ditched the notion of any ridging in the Atlantic this evening...

 

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12z slightly better heights and orientation of the low at 162hrs.probably academic but it's there

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6 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

I Can’t see much evidence that the PV isn’t likely to ramp up into November unless you can post evidence to the contrary? All long term models are going for a mild start to winter with zonal conditions so I’m keeping my expectations very low! 

EB516DF7-A45B-4EE2-8698-3F910C59E55F.jpeg

D789A040-3E79-4B2F-B19F-152F3714DFBB.jpeg

882EE8B4-5180-4A53-9153-3A881507A72A.jpeg

F52348EA-AB5B-440E-B584-BB57D4A6EDAE.jpeg

B0C2D01F-3806-4DC6-A82A-A918ECD0B782.jpeg

but your still posting charts 2 weeks away,anyway the 12 gfs at 168 hours is only about 500 MILES further south with the low pressure than its previous run.

Edited by Blessed Weather
Comment removed

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Interesting GFS with signs of a ridge across Scandy attempting to ridge towards Iceland mid term..

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By midnight Friday the upper trough mentioned in an earlier post is deconstructing to the W/SW of Ireland resulting in a surface frontal wave tracking across the country on Friday. After a brief respite on Saturday courtesy of a transient ridge by Sunday another trough has tracked rapidly east ( one could almost say overcurtting the subtropical ridge 8)) to dominate the eastern Atlantic. Judging by the following evolution best left here

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-2566400.thumb.png.569d8e6e64238b98861431402d4b6fa3.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-2739200.thumb.png.af6fe9d79dcddb0453a4fd2225ce1515.pnggfs-natl_wide-z250_speed-2739200.thumb.png.5f6bab9888ee88bffe78942bb97942e0.png

108.thumb.png.bee186cded8aa0d8b98c50411c6df28e.png156.thumb.png.36a75788059aed81474064e06185def5.png

Edited by knocker

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

but your still posting charts 2 weeks away,anyway the 12 gfs at 168 hours is only about 500 MILES further south with the low pressure than its previous run,but let’s carry on posting charts at two weeks away ,lol

This is the ‘Model output’ discussion thread where we discuss model output. I haven’t seen any models posted by you, just criticism.

Edited by Blessed Weather
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I’m just pointing out that the gfs is not the most accurate model ,looks at its recent run,compared to its previous run,it couldnt be further different if it tried.TBH anything after around 120 hours should be taken with a large pinch of salt,whatever the model.

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Still just looks unsettled to me. Loads of ppn spikes on the ensembles after the turn of the month with low slp for 7-10 days at least.

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Evening 🙂

Not the best of suites from the UKMO / ICON- however the GFS does carry on from the UKMO position-

Lets see what the ECM brings...

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