Model Output Discussion - early October

[Frosty.]

33 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not bad either.

P9 agrees to an extent with the undercut at least, there's certainly some interest for coldies if there is a major cold plunge down across N / E europe.!!!

Edited October 27, 2019 by JON SNOW

[SMU]

^^ yes - Slightly different routes to cold than the UKMO...

As highlighted about a week ago in the speculation thread- no matter what the models want to do they all seem to arrive back at the same all year round persistence pattern thats existed since May

-EPO / -NAO & a weak SE Ridge

Day 7 ECM

The amended ECM as far as the atlantic is concerned is the angle of the jet heading to Iberia-

[Frosty.]

The end of the Ecm 0z operational  is certainly work in progress when you look to the NE and see 510 dam!...on the other hand the GEFS 0z mean @ T+240 is pretty ordinary..just trying to temper expectations / excitement / misleading comments!

Edited October 27, 2019 by JON SNOW

[tinybill]

    morning  all  looking  at the  gfs  this  morning   after  96hr  with  so much rain  with  more  to  come it looks  like in  fantasy world  there   could be a few problems  ahead

Edited October 27, 2019 by tinybill

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not bad either.

No euro high, no organized vortex. Heights from Scandi through Iceland to Greenland. Looks good to me too

[bluearmy]

Not surprised that the direction of travel has attracted some murr input ......... the big question is can the persistent trop  -NAO pattern survive the impending strat pv which looks like it could be quite a behemoth next month ! 

[Methuselah]

An interesting situation at T+168, where the 'reliable' starts to break down:

   

And not much of a clear signal (apart from the seasonal fall in temps?) from the GEFS 00Z ensembles, either:

   

   

Winter's coming all right, but it ain't here yet!

 

[knocker]

13 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

No euro high, no organized vortex. Heights from Scandi through Iceland to Greenland. Looks good to me too

Of course this is a subjective opinion but is good to see any cold air shoveled out of the way

I'm off to get Sidney's winter forecast although I suspect what it will be as he hasn't been storing of late

 

 

Edited October 27, 2019 by knocker

[blizzard81]

Ecm control run for debilt goes cold (and possibly snowy?) towards the end 

[johnholmes]

Well the 500 mb anomaly charts have done an all change overnight and this morning. Back to changeable/unsettled in the 6-10 day period.

No time to post charts etc as about to watch the Wales semi, will be back later.

[Summer Sun]

A quick reminder

With the clock change overnight the models are now updating 1 hour earlier until the end of March

12z GFS will start around 15:30

12z ECM will start around 18:00

[Cloud 10]

Strong negative anomalies near the UK from day10 ECM and GEFS means,especially for the time of year.

 

[carinthian]

Latest 850mb temp profile from UKMO showing some impressive cold air establishing over NE Europe to start of the new month. This weeks forecast for the British Isles could be a bit tricky forecasting the timing and arrival of fronts from the west.  Hints in the latest forecast model of some sort of undercut could develop later in the week. Think is all eyes to the NE and SW . In the balance this one. Should be interesting to watch this trend develop one way or the other.

C

 

 

[shaky]

23 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm control run for debilt goes cold (and possibly snowy?) towards the end 

E

And also just checked the gfs ensembles for oslo and it seem to be an outlier early on in regards to pressure being to low!!maybe in the next few runs we see higher pressure and undercutting such as the ukmo 144 hour chart!

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Not surprised that the direction of travel has attracted some murr input ......... the big question is can the persistent trop  -NAO pattern survive the impending strat pv which looks like it could be quite a behemoth next month ! 

Indeed. And with charts like this in the long term it prevents me from getting too excited by the near term Synoptics which are too early to deliver anything of note.

 

[Methuselah]

Not that atypical synoptic patterns, in early November, are apt to mean anything, in the long-term; winter 1980-81 wasn't particularly special, after all? So, by all means get excited, but a wee bit of perspective now could save a lot in disappointment, further down the line...?

   

And with that...the 06Z is about to roll!

[SMU]

14 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Latest 850mb temp profile from UKMO showing some impressive cold air establishing over NE Europe to start of the new month. This weeks forecast for the British Isles could be a bit tricky forecasting the timing and arrival of fronts from the west.  Hints in the latest forecast model of some sort of undercut could develop later in the week. Think is all eyes to the NE and SW . In the balance this one. Should be interesting to watch this trend develop one way or the other.

C

 

 

Yes & Note the ICON 06z at 120 swing to the UKMO undercutting solution...

 

That dead horse lives on......

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes & Note the ICON 06z at 120 swing to the UKMO undercutting solution...

 

 

That dead horse lives on......

Yes, although we are either going to need to get a cold spell soon (next 2-3 weeks) or we will need stronger upper ridges into the pole in order to prolong the disconnect between strat and trop in order to give us further chances, i agree with your point that sometimes you don't need huge areas of high pressure to deliver cold, but those fairly transient surface ridges won't cut it for long term benefit, we really need a multi wave upper pattern to gain some serious latitude.

[SMU]

As often when studying inter-run variables I look for early changes that will swing a model one way or another

The 06z GFS will move somewhat to the UKMO / ICON blend this morning 

Note the 06z V 00z Jet pattern with a bend SE as opposed to NE indicating more chance of undercutting

[northwestsnow]

Oh blimey, i forgot the clocks have gone back an hour...

6z now coming out, confused me then Steve .

All about getting the jet to dig SE and rid of us of the European heights..

[Summer Sun]

A lull from the rain for the 1st half of this week as we move into November it looks unsettled again

[shaky]

20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

As often when studying inter-run variables I look for early changes that will swing a model one way or another

The 06z GFS will move somewhat to the UKMO / ICON blend this morning 

Note the 06z V 00z Jet pattern with a bend SE as opposed to NE indicating more chance of undercutting

Absolutely horrendous 06z gfs at 144 hours looks like everything goin north east with southwest winds!but it is the 06z so i keep calm steve!!lol!!gfs 00z looked so much better though!

[SMU]

9 minutes ago, shaky said:

Absolutely horrendous 06z gfs at 144 hours looks like everything goin north east with southwest winds!but it is the 06z so i keep calm steve!!lol!!gfs 00z looked so much better though!

Give it 3-5 runs & we will see what it looks like then

1 change in 1 run isnt always enough-

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

 

posting gfs charts at that timescale to prove your point is pretty pointless  as they never verify at that range,unless you have evidence otherwise.

I Can’t see much evidence that the PV isn’t likely to ramp up into November unless you can post evidence to the contrary? All long term models are going for a mild start to winter with zonal conditions so I’m keeping my expectations very low! 

Edited October 27, 2019 by Tim Bland

[Methuselah]

When, if and to what extent, the TPV will ramp-up (or connect with the SPV) is IMO an unknown variable...It's one thing being able to say (sort of) where 1988-89 'went wrong', and entirely another to predict what's going to happen, this time...? But, clearly, the atmosphere has a great deal of inertia to overcome...

And, with that in mind, the 06Z at T+297 looks fairly promising, to me?