Model Output Discussion - early October

[Kentspur]

With all the talk on rainfall and flooding up North on Friday. The amount of flooding in my area today has taken me by surprise roads are chaos in the Dartford area A2 at a standstill already. Which models forecast the most rainfall down in London and the SE today? 

Edited October 24, 2019 by Kentspur

[MATTWOLVES 3]

20 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

This December anomaly is actually far more supportive of the vast majority of the seasonal models forecasts so I'd be inclined to believe it just a tad more than a December 2010 scenario Obviously I'd like it to be wrong being a coldie

Its a bit of a catch 22 situation though kentspur! If all the models were showing cold anomalies again for December and January like last year....imagine the reactions on here!!!! Oh no, not again.... They are leading us up the garden path yet again!!! A bit of reverse mentality this year me thinks.... The models made a major balls up last year, so this year they have decided to stick with the default pattern for this year!!! What always concerns me a tad with seasonal models is the fact that some of them have had a little human input to take global warming into account when making these predictions... Ie, the overall temperatures can end up being warmer than they actually will be!! Predicting severe cold in this country is a nightmare, especially of any duration, and in all honesty if we were starring down the barrel of a 63 repeat, I'm still pretty sure the long range models wouldn't be picking up on it to that kind of degree. Anyway, colder next week.... So that's a start. Hopefully plenty of the these highlighted below for the coming season.... Again a fair few cold ensemble members..... Not bad so early me thinks. 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z is advertising some wintry potential, especially during early November when Pm / Am shots become more probable..it's a recurring theme of the longer term GEFS to bring an early taste of the arctic, there's even a possibility of something from the east!❄

Edited October 24, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Jordan S]

1 hour ago, Kentspur said:

With all the talk on rainfall and flooding up North on Friday. The amount of flooding in my area today has taken me by surprise roads are chaos in the Dartford area A2 at a standstill already. Which models forecast the most rainfall down in London and the SE today? 

Arpege did pretty poorly and underestimated the amounts with just 6 or 7mm maximum. The dwd Icon though was pointing at 15 - 25mm of rain today in a narrow line up central and Eastern parts so did the best I think though location a bit off. 

Edited October 24, 2019 by jordan smith

[Jordan S]

Attention really is on tomorrow's rain for Wales and northwest England although much of England will be very wet at times tomorrow daytime aswell although London and the southeast mostly dry although some patchy rain at times and very windy.

This is Icon's take on rainfall accumulations for the next couple of days.. 

Arpege's a bit more Conservative.. 

Hirlam.. Note this only goes upto to 6am Saturday but rain many hours before clearing but is further south with this. 

Hirlam.. 

GFS showing a similar area to yesterday worst of the rain across Wales and northwest England and very windy across the south 40-50mph. 

The snow accumulation forecast from the gfs is almost certainly over doing the amounts but this applies to the pennines and possibly Welsh mountains... Also showing some wintriness in showers for Western Scotland. 

A big difference in temperature 15-16c perhaps in the south with just 3-7c to the north of this front this really helps fuel this rain band.. 

Worth taking a look at this model it's the GHX model and it takes a blend of models such as Hirlam Arpege and Icon and shows the average output overall.. you can see its not too dissimilar to each of the individual models output with the rain taking a long time to clear the southeast..

In a nutshell a very wet 2 days to come particularly for Wales and northwest England the ukv model showing even larger accumulations for some areas like another person has already shown. So very wet too for many areas..Will show longer term later. 

Edited October 24, 2019 by jordan smith

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Don't want a Murr Sausage, not quite one as not long enough but 29th Oct, no thanks

[northwestsnow]

I wonder if the EC weeklies are  spaffing around with these Griceland pressure anomolies at week 2/3?(not sure i buy it at all currently).

Everything pointing to a sinking Mid Atlantic high next week to me..

 

Edited October 24, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Mike Poole]

Interest on GFS 12z drawing in cold from the NE at T216:

A chilly start to November on this run, and with low pressure to the SW, some wintry precipitation possible too, maybe.

 

[northwestsnow]

Agreed Mike.

UKMO looks to be following EC from this morning though...(sinking mid Atlantic high )...

[SLEETY]

Like the cold pooling over  Northern Europe for the time of year, much more pronounced than recent years.

This bodes well for us later on in the year,if we get repeated Northern Blocking attempts.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Modelling suggestive of nigh on 24 hrs of continuous heavy rainfall across parts of the Midlands, Wales and parts of N England. Could be quite a serious situation given the already saturated ground.

Edited October 24, 2019 by CreweCold

[Jordan S]

A cold end to October and start of November looking likely this will feel very seasonal for Halloween and Halloween night instead of the really mild Halloweens we've had in recent years.

Edited October 24, 2019 by jordan smith

[Methuselah]

Not a bad pattern at T+240; should allow cold pooling to our NE -- so long as it becomes recurrent enough?

   

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yes Jordan we still keep with the theme of a good many colder ensembles. The control also went cold again towards the end. I think sleety pointed out earlier, with regards to a more prominent cold pool on the continent, compared to last year, the ens also point this out on quite a few runs. At this stage things perhaps looking more promising for early winter than last year! Well let's face it, it can't be any worse surely!! 

[tinybill]

i  know its  fantasy  world but  it worth keeping an eye  out

[Badgers01]

9 minutes ago, tinybill said:

i  know its  fantasy  world but  it worth keeping an eye  out

more rain ! 

[Methuselah]

GEFS 12Z ensembles looking good for some preety chilly weather: 

   

   

Touch cheap veneer!

[Frosty.]

If the GEFS 12z is anything to go by, on balance it would be a cold start to november with some arctic influence, frosty nights and perhaps even snow!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

If the GEFS 12z is anything to go by, on balance it would be a cold start to november with some arctic influence, frosty nights and perhaps even snow!

Yes indeed Jon, Early Nov lining up to be more of an early winter flavour.....and that imo will only solidify 

 

BFTP

[booferking]

ECM rather messy this evening no clear way forward still.

[Allseasons-Si]

20 minutes ago, booferking said:

ECM rather messy this evening no clear way forward still.

But wait.....

the wait is over.

sorry for short typo,eating ma tea.

Edited October 24, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

Lovely Icelandic high, wished this run went out further than 240.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Lovely Icelandic high, wished this run went out further than 240.

 

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

But wait.....

Yes now your talking.

[Mike Poole]

I'm relaxed about the output tonight, sure there will plenty of evolutions thrown up in FI, but provided they are showing some amplification somewhere (and they are) that's all good.  Great if UK got an early cold and snowy blast, but it is a bit early.  So to ECM T240:

May look like a PacMan has the UK for tea, good end of run, but just variations on a theme that continues to bode well - for the time being.  

Edited October 24, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Jordan S]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes Jordan we still keep with the theme of a good many colder ensembles. The control also went cold again towards the end. I think sleety pointed out earlier, with regards to a more prominent cold pool on the continent, compared to last year, the ens also point this out on quite a few runs. At this stage things perhaps looking more promising for early winter than last year! Well let's face it, it can't be any worse surely!! 

Very true mat.. although it's worth pointing out November 2013 looked like a very cold pattern may of been developing but we all know what that winter was like.. 

Definitely no certain way to tell how this winter will play out I doubt it will be like that winter I think this time in 2013 and 2015 looked even less promising for people wanting a cold start to winter compared to last year's synoptics..

Anyway back to the here and future gfs looking very decent for cold Frosty weather next week and into day 10.. 

A pretty cold ensembles graph atm too like you say. 

Arome keeping the majority of the persistent rain tomorrow to southwest England mainly west Wales and North until atleast the early hours of Saturday morning different to some of the others. 

Edited October 24, 2019 by jordan smith