Model Output Discussion - early October

[northwestsnow]

As you were with the 00z runs.

Just about as bad a pattern you could wish to not see if you like me enjoy dry crisp Aurumn weather.

No easy way out of this crappy pattern.

[knocker]

The North Atlantic and 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

The waving frontal system that is very slowly crossing the country at the moment will cause some problems vis heavy rain in some areas. Currently this is concentrated over Scotland but as it eases here it will transfer to eastern parts of England and could well last through the day. Best keep an eye on this in real time. Elsewhere sunshine and showers which could be thundery in central and southern England

Through this evening and overnight the weakening front is still lingering down the spine of the country so still some patchy rain around but with clear periods but the new, deep, Atlantic low has edged closer and the associated frontal system will bring rain and strong winds to the north west by 0200 and the rain belt will move east to effect much of the UK by early morning.

So a wet start to Monday, quickly effecting the south east as well, and it will remain wet for much of the day in England and Wales but clearer in the north albeit with heavy showers and strong winds there.

Over Monday night and through Tuesday the Atlantic low is slowly filling just south of Iceland with the UK still within it's circulation so a breezy day with sunny intervals and showers with perhaps some longer periods of rain courtesy of some troughs embedded in the circulation

On Wednesday the low is still filling to the north west but a more general westerly flow is starting to effect the country as another though comes into play in the western Atlantic accompanied some strong ridging over the north east of NA. All resulting in another breezy day with sunny intervals and showers

By Thursday we have a very amplifies scenario with strong ridging over NE America and a positively tilted trough in the Atlantic linked to Scandinavia. Which on the surface results in a complex low in the eastern Atlantic with frontal systems bringing more rain and strong winds to the country

[knocker]

According to the gfs this the position midday Friday but note the conduit that is appearing around the top of the ridge over Greenland

And down this a trough can travel to  'top up' the Atlantic trough resulting in low pressure continuing to be the main influence in the eastern Atlantic and the UK over the weekend

[northwestsnow]

 

 

UK rain magnet.

[knocker]

The ecm is not a million miles away from the gfs over next weekend

And this NH profile is essentially what the anomalies were indicating yesterday

Edited October 6, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The 0600 analysis and chart

Edited October 6, 2019 by knocker

[mb018538]

Incredibly poor outlook - pattern locked in to leave the trough very close to or over the UK. Expect plenty more wind and rain for the next 2 weeks, looks like any hope we had of a pattern change has well and truly been canned.

[Frosty.]

There's some remarkably unseasonable warm and humid potential within the GEFS 0z with even some plume potential, there's certainly more tropical maritime / continental air than polar, indeed, the arctic signal from recent runs has significantly reduced to almost nothing. It's looking like the next 7-10 days will be typically  unsettled / atlantic driven and there is a tendency towards a north / south split, indeed, looking at the Gfs 0z operational it becomes warm further s / e during the second half of the week ahead.

Edited October 6, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

There's some remarkably unseasonable warm and humid potential within the GEFS 0z with even some plume potential, there's certainly more tropical maritime / continental air than polar, indeed, the arctic signal from recent runs has significantly reduced to almost nothing. It's looking like the next 7-10 days will be typically  unsettled / atlantic driven and there is a tendency towards a north / south split, indeed, looking at the Gfs 0z operational it becomes warm further s / e during the second half of the week ahead.

It's very difficult to call, Karl; the exceptional continental warmth, left over from the summer, looks to be as stubborn as the remnants of the TPV were, back in late Spring...?

   

GEFS 00Z ensembles: 

   

   

[shaky]

I gota agree with northwest here!!its an absolutely dire output at the moment!i mean a few days ago it looked like we were gona get something at least a bit more seasonal with north northwest winds but now the trough looks stay anchored slightly further west and all of a sudden we are seeing a slight pressure rise forecast from the south which just keeps the low pressure stuck to the west without really goin anywhere!!talk about boring!!!and to make matters worse we are about to see more rainfall aswell!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yep, it's a pretty mundane set of model runs guys! But what I will say is.... If we are gonna get a run of wet, mild and miserable conditions, let's get it in October, and hope for something much better come November. Low pressure is never far away from the NW throughout the 10 day period. Perhaps at times some drier conditions develop towards the South. Towards the NW it stays pretty dire, and temps remain on the rather average side as well. Heres hoping for a pattern change before much longer. 

[Methuselah]

We'd no' be far away from another plume-like event, were this to be close to verification? Warmth in mid-October's nae impossible, either, as 1978 showed...The rest, as they say, is history!

   

[Frosty.]

It's noticeable that there is a gradual shift towards a N/S and then a NW/SE split on the Ecm 0z ensemble mean, ergo, a gradual improvement further S/SE in terms of less rain and increasingly milder / warmer temperatures as time goes on with height rises to the S/SE across the near continent with the lower heights / most unsettled and relatively cooler atlantic conditions becoming more restricted to the far N/NW/W.

Edited October 6, 2019 by JON SNOW

[SLEETY]

Everytime recently when their has been HLB in the Autumn,the following winter has been dire,regarding cold weather,so maybe this time if we  have very unsettled weather and no HLB during this Autumn ,like what the models are showing currently,we will get the HLB blocking in winter instead for a change.!

[knocker]

Nice depiction of the deep low mid Atlantic and the frontal system that will be taking closer order later

[Methuselah]

Nothing really stands out, in the GEFS 06Z ensembles:

   

   

Unless 'no frost likely' is noteworthy?

[knocker]

At the moment still some moderate rain around on the waving front particularly over East Anglia

y

but this should slowly ease over the next couple of hours and generally it will be quite clear evening with perhaps some bits and bobs of rain in central and northern areas but by midnight rain from the fronts associated with the deep low in the Atlantic will be edging in to N. Ireland. This will spread east through the rest of the night effecting all areas apart the south east. And by early morning it will also be quite windy down western areas, particularly western Scotland by the early hours

[Mike Poole]

Well that is some trough camped out west, looking like dross for most for the foreseeable (technical forecast that!) UKMO and GFS at T144:

Jet stream plot just to confirm the misery:

Edited October 6, 2019 by Mike Poole

[knocker]

There are no major changes from the gfs leading up to next weekend so will skip that and jump to the weekend which remains dominated by low pressure and thus unsettled

But the pattern is certainly not static at the moment and changes with construction of the block upstream establishes (for a time) two energy flows

 

 

Edited October 6, 2019 by knocker

[feb1991blizzard]

12 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

As you were with the 00z runs.

Just about as bad a pattern you could wish to not see if you like me enjoy dry crisp Aurumn weather.

No easy way out of this crappy pattern.

Fairly strong signal  on the GEFS 12z suite of a ridge building in from the South. Much drier last third of Oct, the damage already done to my EWP prediction by then though me thinks.

[Dorsetbred]

13 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

As you were with the 00z runs.

Just about as bad a pattern you could wish to not see if you like me enjoy dry crisp Aurumn weather.

No easy way out of this crappy pattern.

Can we possibly replace the "crappy" pattern with "seasonal' pattern which seems to be more of the flavour at this time?

[Frosty.]

21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Fairly strong signal  on the GEFS 12z suite of a ridge building in from the South. Much drier last third of Oct.

Indeed, the GEFS 12z mean longer term (beyond mid october) looks increasingly benign and pleasant away from the far NW as heights rise to the E / SE.. mid / upper teens celsius further south but some cool misty / foggy nights / early / mid mornings.

Edited October 6, 2019 by JON SNOW

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, JON SNOW said:

Indeed, the GEFS 12z mean longer term (beyond mid october) looks increasingly benign and pleasant away from the far NW as heights rise to the E / SE.. mid / upper teens celsius further south but some cool misty / foggy nights / early / mid mornings.

remember I'm still looking for warmth on models, as it's only oct 6th, cold setups completely useless for this location for now, so cold setups can stay away, 6 degrees and rain showers, no thanks

[feb1991blizzard]

16 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Indeed, the GEFS 12z mean longer term (beyond mid october) looks increasingly benign and pleasant away from the far NW as heights rise to the E / SE.. mid / upper teens celsius further south but some cool misty / foggy nights / early / mid mornings.

 

There are still some wet ens members but signs there of drier on most of them - i suppose though its also possible that a pseudo permanent trough in the Atlantic sets up closer to us and gives us continuous rainfall which would mean a threat to a 200mm month and then Roger J Smith would be in with a shout in the EWP!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

We could do without the warmth tbh.... We could do with some cold pooling to help lower those SSTs... Bring me some cold Frosty evenings now... The 12z ensembles do point towards more settled conditions beyond mid month, temps still no great shakes... Whichever way you look at it.