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Paul

Model Output Discussion - early October

Paul

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20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Screaming North Easterly not out the question here - although more likely to be a glancing blow - good run for cold prospects though - upgrade on 12z GFS.

image.thumb.png.c456ca6679ef5c7417ed1be489194a22.png

Looks like a scary old artic fox to me, but could be a great friend 🐺

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10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

 

November 'could' be on a level of what many didn't 'antisipate'!!!..

 

 

Yes, the individual CFS runs showing cold are getting more and more frequent - for November but also for winter proper.

image.thumb.png.fee3bc8a9d940feaeb2a4adfb42d163b.png

The ensemble mean on the NOAA site not seeing this yet but that is because they are 3 days behind, if they continue to churn out cold runs every 6 hours they will manifest in these and the +NAO showing below will start to change.

image.thumb.png.849c7a5be350ec282fe8c7310c2688ff.png

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Excellent GFS for those wanting a seasonal feel to the weather..

HP bringing frost and maybe fog.

Beats wind and rain anyday for me personlly.

Only problem is its the GFS of course..

00z runs will be interesting..

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, the individual CFS runs showing cold are getting more and more frequent - for November but also for winter proper.

image.thumb.png.fee3bc8a9d940feaeb2a4adfb42d163b.png

The ensemble mean on the NOAA site not seeing this yet but that is because they are 3 days behind, if they continue to churn out cold runs every 6 hours they will manifest in these and the +NAO showing below will start to change.

image.thumb.png.849c7a5be350ec282fe8c7310c2688ff.png

Yes @laggedlagged..

But the influence is there..

And the NAO..is imo falling short in notion atm..

But a stark contrast surely "awaits"=

No split line!!!

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JFF at this range, but a chance of cold already becoming entrenched further east to help everyone in the UK further down the line. My eyebrow is definitely raised so early in the season. ECM snow cover chart for Poland and GFS ensembles from Warsaw to give you an idea of what could be in the offing. It's been forecast quite solidly for a few days now, so my confidence levels are very slowly rising.

2019-10-24 08_30_04-Meteologix.com.png

gefsens850Warsaw_Poland0 (2).png

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gfs-0-240.thumb.png.9537ee0e61816f6f797c1527d365658f.png1644870470_ECM1-240(2).thumb.gif.8ccdc59e123c286ef8c46a7fdbc67be4.gif

ECM0-240.thumb.gif.fb28fafe0ec2a72d2549c5365887da40.gifgfs-1-240.thumb.png.abb9d349de83a277782ebfc97ecfe49f.png

messy picture this morning.

october normally has a habit of throwing out exaggerated northern blocking..

 

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Yeah you always knows when the charts are not looking so good for cold,the  sudden lack of posts.😆

Look like being unsettled again and not particularly cold either .

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To more immediate concerns, rainfall totals over the next 48-72 hours.

I've noted for my area the 00, 06 and 12 z outputs on Net Wx's version of each of these GFS runs since Tuesday.

The 00z 13, 25 and this morning 30 mm

06 Tue and Wed 23 and 47 mm

The 12z giving 34 and 36 mm.

So some variation for this area from day to day but about an inch as an average. Flooding is going to be a problem I would imagine for whichever area ends up being the area getting the worst, possibly 75-100 mm for some of the high ground, with a SW aspect possibly. This of course has to run off into the major rivers in the areas affected.

 

Looking further ahead and the 3 main 500 mb anomaly charts all point to some kind of ridging NW of the UK so with the weather settling down after this weekend. An autumnal feel seems most likely with both high level and surface flow from a coldish direction, Pm type air but modified by the proximity of both upper and surface ridging.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited by johnholmes

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23 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Yeah you always knows when the charts are not looking so good for cold,the  sudden lack of posts.😆

Look like being unsettled again and not particularly cold either .

Lol another flip this morning standard uk winter emotional rollercoaster prevails what could go wrong likely will.🤣🤣

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Once again the models aren't proving much use this morning:

image.thumb.png.aae516784b8e3f16e4bf32af8579c617.pngimage.thumb.png.4b9f321890d71c9ed42929e86458ae1c.pngimage.thumb.png.c6a8a1d05a135e0104f1128cdfa7d633.png

GFS/UKMO/ECM at 144 this morning. Hard to make any predictions for day 5/6 and beyond at present. There does seem to be a trend towards the PV really spinning back up after an upcoming lull, heading back above average into November:

image.thumb.png.e5d40b1a987c248eee47e4d9a625c428.png
 

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Looking across the various model suites, still some uncertainty about the exact track of the frontal system on Friday and Saturday but it looks like we'll see the following totals:

Wales and North West England: 3 to 4 inches, particularly over west facing hills.
West/North West Midlands: 1 to 2 inches
South West England and the rest of the Midlands: Around 1 inch, highest in the west and lower as one heads east

Could be quite a bit of flooding, with Wales and North West England seeing rain continuously for around 24 hours or so.

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UKV take on Fri/Sat rainfall.

128659573_viewimage(62).thumb.png.215947b8be378a252cb71aa208e959ac.png666499578_viewimage(63).thumb.png.86de990f0fa62e639209ae7263cd7ae1.png93581154_viewimage(64).thumb.png.2304d158efd232780671327735cce48f.png

And Net-wx take on rainfall totals, Pretty much the same guidance as Meto warnings.

44325931_viewimage(65).thumb.png.e78f60c27313342081dfe4f02153b85b.png

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19 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

UKV take on Fri/Sat rainfall.

128659573_viewimage(62).thumb.png.215947b8be378a252cb71aa208e959ac.png666499578_viewimage(63).thumb.png.86de990f0fa62e639209ae7263cd7ae1.png93581154_viewimage(64).thumb.png.2304d158efd232780671327735cce48f.png

And Net-wx take on rainfall totals, Pretty much the same guidance as Meto warnings.

44325931_viewimage(65).thumb.png.e78f60c27313342081dfe4f02153b85b.png

Indeed  New MET office warnings  going for upto 120mm of rain  areas to watch Wales South West  West Midlands And the North West, North Of England. 

Edited by weirpig

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Looking at the GEFS 0z mean / perturbations, Scandinavia gets an Arctic blast next week while the uk gets the dregs but at least temperatures are below average with overnight frosts..further ahead into early november, there is some proper wintry potential in terms of Polar / Arctic maritime shots!👍

Edited by JON SNOW

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Yes indeed Karl, infact I've come on here this morning expecting quite a downgrade!! But that's just not the case. The 0z ensembles have put together a huge amount of cold shots again, even where the cold is just missing us, it's tantalisingly close to the NE/E. So no backdown at present from these ensembles. 

gens-0-0-300.png

gens-3-0-228.png

gens-4-0-312.png

gens-4-1-312.png

gens-7-0-384.png

gens-10-0-228.png

gens-11-0-240.png

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I know these get posted at times, but I'm not sure they're any more reliable than cannon fodder. A flip from below average to a much warmer than average December from the last run to the current run. I guess though you could keep looking at them each day and see how many more cold vs warm anomalies are forecast on them?

Screenshot_20191024-112051_Samsung Internet.jpg

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Many on here will recall the winter of 1968-69, when large parts of Europe saw a very cold and snowy winter...? I'm nae saying this year will go likewise, just that we could be in for something different to what we've seen recently...Given the atypical AO and SA indices...?🤔

Early November 1968: Rrea00219681103.gif

Forecast for 2019:         h850t850eu.png

Arctic HP? h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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48 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I know these get posted at times, but I'm not sure they're any more reliable than cannon fodder. A flip from below average to a much warmer than average December from the last run to the current run. I guess though you could keep looking at them each day and see how many more cold vs warm anomalies are forecast on them?

Screenshot_20191024-112051_Samsung Internet.jpg

They are only cannon fodder when showing above average 😂😏

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With the GEFS 06Z mean running mostly below 0C, throughout, there's good ensemble support for a coldish outlook:🤔

prmslLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

So, not looking bad for Central England, for early November...?:oldgood:

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1 hour ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

They are only cannon fodder when showing above average 😂😏

This December anomaly is actually far more supportive of the vast majority of the seasonal models forecasts so I'd be inclined to believe it just a tad more than a December 2010 scenario😂 Obviously I'd like it to be wrong being a coldie

Edited by Kentspur

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