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Paul

Model Output Discussion - early October

Paul

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10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS 18z continues where the 12z left off - 

with even more cold air undercutting & a nudge south

Snow possible over North Midlands -

@WillinGlossop

18z V 12z

A325C816-E897-4F91-A16B-56493AC6C4DD.thumb.png.b04930a11f83b61407f30a527a59174f.png7DAD15EF-4E79-416B-8189-40C36ED2A77E.thumb.png.32eb27cfc0d7b2115a32c1ba9847f7e1.png

 

Interesting developments on 12z & 18z 

5BA767E6-8CD5-482A-BB88-F4F4E80CBB18.png

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any pics mate!!sorry am just out on my delivery rounds lol

its up to 144 now - here is the chart.

image.thumb.png.126e3c52f0890f8286a2b31abfc8c8ee.png

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Just now, WillinGlossop said:

Interesting developments on 12z & 18z 

5BA767E6-8CD5-482A-BB88-F4F4E80CBB18.png

WOW! - Surely that is just the GFS bias towards snow on the PPN type charts - hope not of course but that is heavy PPN, surely we cannot get pumpkined this early in the season??

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

its up to 144 now - here is the chart.

image.thumb.png.126e3c52f0890f8286a2b31abfc8c8ee.png

Can that little shortwave south west of uk undercut?

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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

WOW! - Surely that is just the GFS bias towards snow on the PPN type charts - hope not of course but that is heavy PPN, surely we cannot get pumpkined this early in the season??

Some wet snow for the top of Snowdonia and the Pennines. Cold rain elsewhere.

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Can that little shortwave south west of uk undercut?

It is but it will need another go afterwards to get any cold this far West, so i am looking at whats happening over Greenland - the problem is cold cannot go around corners, you need perfect timing to get a proper Easterly, cold ait has to be on the same lattitude as the UK exactly at the point any high latt block orientates favourably - ie a rectangular shape West to East.

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Definitely a subtle shift south with this vigorous wave depression with the heaviest rain now shown for the Midlands and Southern England gales restricted to the far south east and southern coasts, snow still progged mainly for the hills but perhaps like others have said the north Midlands and north Wales instead of northern England this would bring a real soaking to England and Wales though and exacerbate any high river levels currently.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_96.thumb.jpg.fdec437bef8b5e05d98a8008304e80e1.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_2MWIND_96.thumb.jpg.f4a910f94cede0bf94ed10ea8d544194.jpg

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18_96_windvector_gust.thumb.png.c6094b29ff9791d32b1ae7393555a20d.png

but if this trends any further south which is a possibility then hills further south may get the wintriness and gales remain to the south alternatively it could trend further north and if that's the case then wind would probably be more of a talking point.. this needs watching very closely will not be suprised to see this being a named storm if this came off but that's not definite and intensity will fluctuate.. just needs more aggreement from other models. :oldgood:

Edited by jordan smith

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GFS looking lovely tonight, lots of dry cold and possibly foggy/frosty weather to usher in November.

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Greenland profile good for another go late on.

image.thumb.png.0a12d690f37df3f2216ae0571e75c4ed.png

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Greenland profile good for another go late on.

image.thumb.png.0a12d690f37df3f2216ae0571e75c4ed.png

Fantastic 18z so far if cold frosty foggy weather is your cup of tea!!i cant wait for those crisp mornings and evenings!!

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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Fantastic 18z so far if cold frosty foggy weather is your cup of tea!!i cant wait for those crisp mornings and evenings!!

And snow.

image.thumb.png.f18f3446346edbadf52154a490e414bc.pngimage.thumb.png.6c4d5906338c24163254baed55d5164d.png 

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Just for a laugh, and it's based on 18z GFS, this is the raw data for my location on Friday, bonkers. Low ground Lincolnshire. Of course it will change, but certainly seems to be some trend towards a spell of sleet/snow for some on friday 

Screenshot_20191022-000026_Samsung Internet.jpg

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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Greenland profile good for another go late on.

image.thumb.png.0a12d690f37df3f2216ae0571e75c4ed.png

If,and its a big if, the GFS is sniffing the correct progression then the 1st half of Nov will be well below average.

The big blue blobs across much of Europe will ensure that and prevent a quick route to Atlantic weather.

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

If,and its a big if, the GFS is sniffing the correct progression then the 1st half of Nov will be well below average.

The big blue blobs across much of Europe will ensure that and prevent a quick route to Atlantic weather.

the GEFS 18z are crap up until 144 though, much warmer than the 12z.

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Some very interesting weather possibly on the cards for the end of this week then! It’s been a while since I’ve posted in here. But that little low will need to be very closely monitored. A potentially nasty little feature that could surprise quite a few from very strong winds to early snowfall. Especially in Wales, the Pennines and Peak District areas.

Haven’t even mentioned the possible Stella outcome into next week, with that big greeny high possibly becoming established, and the potential early freezer for Scandinavia and Europe! 

Storm season coat is now hung up! Let’s watch the winter dramas roll out!  

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if  the  gfs  is right  things  could  get very interesting in fantasy world   and  this place  could get a  bit  nuts!!

gfs-2-384.png

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Pretty big split on the GEFS 00z!

image.thumb.png.2c370c7bd02f3f56d626f7ce1dafc0a4.png

Quite a lot of rain on them too , hope they are wrong!

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Pretty big split on the GEFS 00z!

image.thumb.png.2c370c7bd02f3f56d626f7ce1dafc0a4.png

Quite a lot of rain on them too , hope they are wrong!

With such spread...they are clearly wrong as things stand...

It's a case for the raws...b4 the deciphering with regards to the ensembles atm!!=

Look for them before ens catch up.

 

Incidentally...this morning's ec..

Already looks like its going for the split...or tri ripped polar vortex...latter in the run !!!???

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GEFS 00Z ensembles really ramp up the uncertainty, this morning; the GFS Operational swings so much, it ought to grow pampas grass in its front garden!:oldgood:

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Anywho...let the fun and games begin!:yahoo:

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Wow the op gives the midlands a day time temp of 5 degrees and 0 by night at just 4 days out!!i love it😁!!ukmo has shifted towards the colder theme aswell overnight!!

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close ecm gefs at day ten for something wintry.

heights just dont have the legs to make it north or northwest enough but depending how strong the mid atlantic block is theres still hope for more seasonal type weather.

good to see the euro slug fading.

vortex really powering up now ao and nao going into positive although this all depends on whether the gfs has the outcome correct.

few more days and we will see if heights remain lower to our south and some form of blocking to take hold.

2029223997_ECM1-240(2).thumb.gif.c2f98075929932575a4483515571cd27.gifECM0-240.thumb.gif.741f86b030c640b189a8368e36a17ef0.gif

pretty close though.......

544266026_nao.sprd2(1).thumb.gif.8882763f0c83c7006f39666b13bc419a.gif

although the gem has really gone off on one.

gem-0-180.thumb.png.d64bcd43ead8643f5c7d616b3549c9ef.png 1932146291_gem-0-240(1).thumb.png.ed2e6a34b4f3405a8c0abd067a38756a.png 

but both gem and ecm gefs have better chances towards colder conditions.

nasty little low pressure around scotland.

Edited by MR EXTREMES
to add gem chart

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Ec46 shows a v strong gricelandic height anomoly week 2 (no surprise) and weakening off weeks 3/4 though still evident ....... 

as steve says, some trop wave breaking should be expected ...... Berlin charts return back end next week ....

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A little look at temperature and rain anomalies based on yesterday's ECM monthly. Didn't bother with this week as it's within short range forecasts. Looking chilly.

 

 

MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20191021_w2.png

MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20191021_w3.png

MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20191021_w4.png

MonthlyAnomalies_Rain_20191021_w2.png

MonthlyAnomalies_Rain_20191021_w3.png

MonthlyAnomalies_Rain_20191021_w4.png

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5 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

The 00z GFS is a bit progressive over night- however excluding that the 192 -228 mean / UKMO / GEM are EPIC in terms of -AO & polar profiles. 

Some serious tropospheric wave 2 action with a vortex split !

255847F1-1307-4857-A70B-35B9D7CEE080.thumb.jpeg.dbf6fbfe1984c5ec7f79bbf004dfe165.jpeg

very 09/10 if i remember rightly,

a large part of the vortex remained persistent though the winter on the siberian side.

and correct me if i'm wrong didn't we get a record breaking negative nao in 2009/10 winter?

anyway yes the gfs gets very excited

but the gefs is a little more less progressive.

cant wait till this evenings runs.

hurricane season in the atlantic has gone quiet so could be the last of them.

but happy to have heights over the uk which does also look a possibility. 

Edited by Blessed Weather
Comment removed.

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