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Model Output Discussion - early October


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The upper low mentioned above does eventually track into the Atlantic where it phases with the TPV/trough before deconstructing resulting in a surface low just to the north west of the Hebrides and thus quite wet and windy, particularly over Scotland. And the ecm is still playing with a frontal wave tracking up from the south west and becoming a very intense feature. Of course the detail is subject to revision

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-1702400.thumb.png.0927233077a109426fd8cfe36faa6acb.pngecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-1832000.thumb.png.d6764165baecc2ec5ecd9c058c9fcb87.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1918400.thumb.png.8652fe6071dc2df2bf1c3e3030465bdb.png

index.thumb.png.32a2189f53085e2980a65c148ee97aef.png234.thumb.png.f36b40e6528af89eef52b8667b72329e.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Don't usually look at this model at rainfall not the best in my opinion but this aswell as a few others are showing an impressive band of squally heavy showers merging together for longer spells of rain through southern parts during early Friday morning mabye the odd thunderstorm showers elsewhere too.. a similar thing happens tomorrow morning perhaps with a band of heavy showers moving through the south.. downpours and sunshine elsewhere. 

Netwx

nmmuk3hrprecip.thumb.png.4f58ef2fa770f0dce98e9208b0560ddf.png

1790108904_nmmuk3hrprecip(1).thumb.png.f364c03bd536c62f5a4f02493ee66c95.png

 

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

UKV gives a better idea of shower activity tomorrow in to Friday:

50bec1c19ceef8daa4f4cec0c70e2291.gif

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

What a spiffing start to November this could be -- possible inversions permitting!

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

But, not to worry, snow lovers...it's only tail-end flapping syndrome?:oldgood:

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Here today, gone tomorrow!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

A few runs have suggested the potential for the first proper cold blast of the Autumn, the timeframe at the far end of October is too far away and the approach to setting it up looks very precarious in actually delivering something. The ECM frankly is quite awful in returning very wet conditions to the U.K. at a time where we really don’t need more rain.

luckily before then we should see things dry out and we get a few dry days though it might be more of a gloomy set up than sunny.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

deep  fantasy  world  is suggesting that the first blast   of winter  could be comeing   as  from about  200hr the winds start going  nw / then they come from the much colder northly !!

gfs-2-384.png

Edited by tinybill
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-1270400.thumb.png.3c9c0dd8cb5a6e856d8470fb6bca1c4c.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.aa20e1ddc0ad1dad3cb880d12100f2d4.gif

Apart from some showers in western and southern regions it has been a dry and clear night and this essentially remains the picture through today. Showers in the west will spread east and pep up through the day as the occlusion edges closer and a band of showers will also effect the south east courtesy of a trough running around within the circulation of the low to the west

PPVE89.thumb.gif.25106f989efc20446e9a7c7cc67148d6.gif2mtemp_d02_20.thumb.png.35e3c6f5c9d125cae242f30749861c6c.pngmeanreflec_d02_13.thumb.png.d9110abe05b60940839b5bd6031fd113.pngmeanreflec_d02_18.thumb.png.de691e40623f27865eefaa5c6ea9856e.pngmeanreflec_d02_21.thumb.png.571340b4615da206b95dcd9a68467fdd.pngmeanreflec_d02_24.thumb.png.4a09427660119d1d8efe97b16e4c4376.png

The occlusion continues to track east over night and an area of heavy showers will move north east across southern and central England whilst it also becomes very windy in the south

PPVG89.thumb.gif.1e3869b338f9be09eee15b5106e78a65.gifprecip_d02_30.thumb.png.8b056ef5269ec4e10a156c76fcf02ebd.pngprecip_d02_34.thumb.png.cf917a42b03892bbc6afffc656022502.png

By midday tomorrow the low is centred over south west Ireland and bands of heavy showers will continue to run around within the circulation, mainly effecting England and Wales, but more persistent rain may well effect north east Scotland later courtesy of the old occlusion. Windy in the south with possible gales along the coast.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.b37695a8c111c14a125db8bd65c78762.gif2mtemp_d02_44.thumb.png.5762d18bef619cf1e6f12199c1be1588.pngprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.ee570dfd30548d2649f6b6d4d620a401.png

The low continues to move east and fill on Saturday so another day of sunshine and showers.But the much discussed amplification is taking place in the west

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1486400.thumb.png.f106f09bf584df2a1cd3c8183303ca2a.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.274d7d973d61dbfeb2539cc9317fcb3e.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.59894744cf804a517f83c2d89a0ec0ab.gif

The evolution continues apace to the west on Sunday which effects the structure and orientation of the upper trough over the UK resulting in brighter and cooler weather in the north whilst remaining unsettled with showers and perhaps longer periods of rain in the south

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1594400.thumb.png.b1748d329d9a800d43c9873792e0f192.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.07af2c9218137e8e56890ebd6ad523ea.gifgfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-1594400.thumb.png.633711f7ef019976add921bfd05eafd0.png

The cooler and brighter weather spreads to all parts of the country on Monday as the subtropical high now ridges north east but further troughs are tracking east across the Atlantic.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1680800.thumb.png.211a62806b8f37751f0f8f855db90e3d.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.667deae3a25e7c3e1a14cedfb04aafe6.gifgfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-1680800.thumb.png.95ccc5e4d49154db28f3d50c11711a38.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

According to the gfs the key features for the rest of the week and  into the weekend are the continued amplification of the subtropical high in the western Atlantic, leading eventually to a high cell over northern Canada, and the interplay between the TPV over northern Russia/the European ridge and troughs tracking east across the Atlantic. Encapsulated by the 5-10 anomaly and some surface charts indicating a trend towards a N/S split  The detail is of course not definitive

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-2134400.thumb.png.52998db1a08b9f5b0f57192278978bb9.png

156.thumb.png.c03b8f0bb0735c65c3460afdb260677d.png180.thumb.png.e0cc4176e3534f99858efbafefdae072.png204.thumb.png.2c7a662f242b2b08404527906c7a7678.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm follows a similar theme to the gfs in the latter period of the run but once the Atlantic trough has phased with the TPV/trough it then develops further intro quite vigorous separate low in the vicinity of the UK. This would portend more wet and windy weather. And the environment to the south west is primed for some cyclogenesis

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1788800.thumb.png.b0da48f284d18659458cc17df7b3b06b.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1875200.thumb.png.c0a1ebd468de65f87916710c26df2af6.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1961600.thumb.png.3351a94b88762516c5c04fe7cecb8853.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z300_speed-1961600.thumb.png.55446d4fa18472cd06ab0b38c664627b.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
30 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not bad.

(Image snipped)

Hi Feb. For the benefit of those wishing to learn, could you expand on your reasoning please. Thks.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Hi Feb. For the benefit of those wishing to learn, could you expand on your reasoning please. Thks.

It looked to me like it might have pulled down some cold air from the North, the GFS looked much more likely to stall, while the ECM did not end up pulling that cold air down in the end, it was still an improvement on the GFS, as the GFS stalled the trough out West, when this happens it means mild South Westerlies usually, as it happens the GFS right at the end, looks like it might go on to deliver an Easterly as a Scandi high develops and looks like disrupting troughs might be undercut, if this did happen it could deliver genuine proper cold and widespread snow chances but there is little support for this solution and far too far away so all in all, not as much to get excited about, where as 36 hours ago, that aforementioned Atlantic trough was looking like digging quite far South and clearing Eastwards and not stalling and that could have delivered at least sharp frosts for many and even snow for Northern Britain possibly.

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It looked to me like it might have pulled down some cold air from the North, the GFS looked much more likely to stall, while the ECM did not end up pulling that cold air down in the end, it was still an improvement on the GFS, as the GFS stalled the trough out West, w

 

Rather depends on how you define improvement

index.thumb.png.56d9437af3fbf250aa8e337643aa268e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, knocker said:

Rather depends on how you define improvement

index.thumb.png.56d9437af3fbf250aa8e337643aa268e.png

Yes, i meant long term for bringing in cold, regulars on here will know my preferences are always for as cold as possible, and rain whilst when its heavy can be irritating when you have to have a shower as soon as you get back from shopping because you are soaked, it certainly does not phase me at all, i would rather have that than oppressive heat and would rather have violent storms and interesting weather than just sun all the time.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, i meant long term for bringing in cold, regulars on here will know my preferences are always for as cold as possible, and rain whilst when its heavy can be irritating when you have to have a shower as soon as you get back from shopping because you are soaked, it certainly does not phase me at all, i would rather have that than oppressive heat and would rather have violent storms and interesting weather than just sun all the time.

I am not concerned with people's preferences, merely that brief subjective comments mean different things to people; that is if they mean anything at all.

And in any case it is always possible that there are people out there who are not familiar with your preferences. albeit they probably reside in the upper reaches of the Amazon/ 8)

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm det run fits in pretty well with the EPS 5-10 mean anomaly. during the ext period the amplification decreases resulting in very week upper flow with pressure gradually rising over the UK. This should portend much drier period with temps around average but with the usual diurnal variations.

ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom_5day-2134400.thumb.png.aab29ac45415b9c0086d52be2af8549e.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom_5day-2480000.thumb.png.c65484ed148bb0e0eab5aa2cb06c2c37.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom-2566400.thumb.png.698112fa2ab8de754a1215659e02bfcc.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Maybe this year's thunderstorm season is still not quite over:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

But, the GEFS 00Z ensembles are so 'messy', it's not easy to see what, if anything, has much support, either way?:shok:

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Och well...back to the Guess Chamber?:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

I must admit I got a bit carried away yesterday and the models have again pulled the rug from under me. There is still some cold potential within the GEFS 0z but less so than yesterday and currently there is more chance of a mild or indeed warm late october and start to november..apologies if my excitable comments / tone misled anyone.

No need to apologise Karl, the models make mugs of the best of us!! In fairness you have regularly stated that there are a fair few ensembles running quite warm. This is still one of my concerns with the new GFS model, that it will be sending us up the garden path again, by constantly overplaying cold sypnotics! Some of us are perhaps a little guilty of overstating incoming cold snaps, when in reality it's still a little on the early side just yet! Perhaps it's the coldie in us that gets us a little overly excited. Looking at the extended ECM mean out till November, shows the mean around 1C for the Birmingham area, so it's nudging down a little..... Problem is there are a good 60% of runs going above this, the SLP is around 1016mb,so perhaps drier conditions still the order of the day..... And let's remind ourselves.... It will still be Autumn..... Plenty of time for things to change..... For better of for worse I may add! 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

:oldgood:I like the WAA being to the west of Greenland, and not to the east; it's better than seeing a quasi-stationary intense depression sitting there...isn't it?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

And, who knows what part the residual heat, over mainland Europe'll, will play as we approach winter...?:unsure2:

That's a tasty patch of cold air developing to our NE!

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

A stonking Greenland/Iceland high on the gfs 6z with a chilly easterly . That’ll do for starters . 

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DCBD3BDE-EE73-4FBC-BC06-19741C43489B.png

46EEAD4C-1205-4BC7-89FB-9C6C6D0A7E75.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Nae bad, for November 2nd: chances of snow, frost and freezing fog!:yahoo:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Some fantastic charts appearing from ecm and gfs!!cannot wait for these frosty cold evening in a week or 2 whilst am on my deliveroo rounds!!and also those crisp morning runs!!am so excited!!the blocking around greenland and iceland is now showing up quite frequently on the gfs!!time to take it seriously!!

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