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Paul

Model Output Discussion - early October

Paul

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Variation of the theme  height rises  bringing in chillier temps  and more settled conditions.   Edit  and agin rises towards greenland.

image.thumb.png.3b290ba94da5f60f7cdb60c0f7b07259.png  image.thumb.png.f205701d8587de9915bb026980bc78fc.png

Edited by weirpig

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Not sure if anyone has mentioned the Ecm 0z operational T+240 hours..so I will..it's preety good in an indian summer kind of way!👍🌞😮😉

1401167769_240_mslp500(1).thumb.png.f46fa1b83c56bd7124d2659cb87945ee.png240_mslp850.thumb.png.a9bbe306af5bf5b02b4eb64fb304e437.png240_thickuk.thumb.png.1b9c17c6ac88cb13a8a6f2519d4b7d7f.png

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello sir!!!

BOOM!

image.thumb.png.daf4159d304f1c2df63dd70044bedbe2.png

Something is definitely cooking for late Oct.

Edited by booferking

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1 minute ago, booferking said:

Something is definitely cooking for late Oct.

Indeed, maybe an indian..summer according to the Ecm 0z!😮

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1 minute ago, JON SNOW said:

Indeed, maybe an indian..summer according to the Ecm 0z!😮

Yea followed by an Arctic outbreak shortly after.💪

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There are indeed some really nice ensembles showing around day 10 onwards on the GEFS . 

E8F3D1FD-1F1C-449F-841B-F53275CB1E15.png

6AF117B3-CF09-4CDB-AC47-6F7F469A8F8E.png

B3068CC1-B4BA-410B-BCCC-2723BC1C97CD.png

7D2B953D-70E3-495C-A130-DBEE51B13F0E.png

6B5DD022-DCB8-4FD2-9EC0-9C7633BFB1E0.png

8106D444-B1C4-491E-AF1A-C60966A74266.png

6F82B917-587B-4A4B-A8D9-46EF7B4E4B28.png

47C01D77-CBA0-4EC7-8504-529D08B697E8.png

CC91BA3B-6D4D-4A7A-8974-058C3C76CB37.png

E5B319E2-E85D-4E04-ABC4-67EB54D49FA5.png

C4499D78-BEE7-451D-82D8-EAAC4338398A.png

1A02C434-53EA-4B26-ABBB-C25E9424B49C.png

35029E56-3FC0-4F6F-9BED-55D156570CEC.png

07D47AEF-8A8B-454B-A399-A6F8775D3902.png

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58 minutes ago, booferking said:

Something is definitely cooking for late Oct.

Careful, don't want to go with any "definites" this far out. Twill go titticus verticus if we're not careful!

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Looks like we could be in for one of those late autumnal week's where one day you're wearing a cardi and the next a thick winter coat and scarf!!! Love seeing the seasonal changes in full force!x

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While the selected GEFS members above are probably too extreme, the trend towards greater amplification into Greenland and an increasingly negative AO can be seen on the ECM 0z mean for the past 3 days:

13th Oct T240

EDH1-240.GIF?00

14th Oct T216

EDH1-216.GIF?00

15th Oct T192

EDH1-192.GIF?15-12

 

The height profile over Western Europe is largely unchanged though.

Edited by Yarmy

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3 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

Not sure if anyone has mentioned the Ecm 0z operational T+240 hours..so I will..it's preety good in an indian summer kind of way!👍🌞😮😉

1401167769_240_mslp500(1).thumb.png.f46fa1b83c56bd7124d2659cb87945ee.png240_mslp850.thumb.png.a9bbe306af5bf5b02b4eb64fb304e437.png240_thickuk.thumb.png.1b9c17c6ac88cb13a8a6f2519d4b7d7f.png

Should the 00z Ecm 240 hrs chart verify I think we could potentially  be looking at a prolonged settled spell with temps nudging above the seasonal average. Has Euro Slug written all over it. 😴

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16 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Should the 00z Ecm 240 hrs chart verify I think we could potentially  be looking at a prolonged settled spell with temps nudging above the seasonal average. Has Euro Slug written all over it. 😴

Have to say i couldn't agree less.👍

ECH1-240 (1).gif

Edited by booferking

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And the 06Z finishes on one of those pesky 'if only it were either January or July' synoptic patterns:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

And with the Operational and Control both in the same ballpark, T850s of -5 to -7C look perfectly possible 🌨️...?

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

I'm glad I got that in before the 12Zs come out and ruin it!:oldgrin:

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This mornings ECM won't be repeated this evening. (he said)

A chilly end to October looks far more plausible a la GFS though I suspect the 12z Op is giving us the best placed and strongest Atlantic blocking possible for that chilly scenario

Edited by Mucka

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I wish but probably just a random guess by the GFS, it barely shows any consistency. I guess the models have to start somewhere though, we will have to wait till the 18z. (I am no expert so I don't really know)

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:oldgood:This looks -- as it's only October -- very good; probably nae much snaw, away from Scotland, but plenty of coastal convection?:yahoo:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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Just wondering whether to tell my family about the risk of snow later next week on the GEFS 6z?👍😮😁...there's certainly some Arctic potential..just waiting for Exeter to jump on board 😉

snow_270_ps_slp.thumb.png.dd51b6b1ac57542f37fbe652abff7fca.png

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

:oldgood:This looks -- as it's only October -- very good; probably nae much snaw, away from Scotland, but plenty of coastal convection?:yahoo:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

image.png.f9b7e6c5109c70f898727cf5b763df78.png

 

Don't worry about the uppers too much, it only needs a potent shortwave in the right position with evaporative cooling and you could easily get hours and hours of heavy lowland snow with a setup like that.

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