Model Output Discussion - early October

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Good lord some of these 18z ensembles have just woken me from me slumber... Literally every run is showing some kind of cold shot.... What a start to November if we get close to any of these.... Keep em coming king GFS....

[snowray]

36 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Just didn’t quite align right and the really cold uppers just clip the north and get wasted at sea . 

We are certainly due a decent Northerly blast, can't remember the last time we had a direct hit from a straight Northerly with sleet/snow showers moving inland as opposed to the wishbone effect of a NWly/NNWly.

[tinybill]

some very tasty maps in fantasy world  if  might  be rain  loads  to  come of it  , but if this hangs arouned  for 4 weeks later anything  could  happen

Edited November 1, 2019 by tinybill

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 300mb and surface analysis for midnight. (note the very strong jet exiting Canada)

The bands of rain associated with the two occlusions will  continue move north east and clear most places by lunchtime, northern Scotland being the exception. Many areas will be dry subsequent to this, albeit cloudy and murky but some rapid cylclogenesis has taken place to the south west and by 1800 the low is 976mb just west of Ireland.and rain from the associated fronts will effect Cornwall by mid morning and later the heavier band by late afternoon and then tracking east to effect all western areas.

The fronts and rain band track north east through the night with heavy showers following on behind in the now strengthening wind, particularly in the south west. And on this strong wind further heavy rain sweeps into the south west of England and Wales by dawn

By midday Saturday the low is 967mb over Liverpool and a very unsettled day is on the cards. I'm not going to try and quantify this in any great detail but suffice it to say some very heavy rain in south wales and the south west accompanied by some very strong winds perhaps gusting to severe gale,

The country is still under the auspices of the low on Sunday but it is slowly filling and the winds will abate but still a day of showers, some longer periods of rain, and sunny intervals, But there are further complications because another upper trough has tracked from the western Atlantic to merge with the one in situ resulting in another surface low tracking in from the west

By Monday the trough is taking on a positive to neutral tilt as the subtropical high briefly amplifies to the west  And with the surface low now centred over Plymouth the surface wind veers northerly behind the now weakening fronts straddled across the country Another day of sunny intervals and showers.

By Tuesday the northerly or north easterly wind prevails so generally a much drier day for most with just the odd shower but still somewhat grotty in the south east courtesy of the now filling low

Edited November 1, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

According to the gfs remaining changeable for the rest of the week, perhaps improving by the weekend, but certainly not with the unsettled intensity of the coming weekend. There will be periods of rain and showers as the odd system passes through, which may well be wintry over the high ground in the north and with temps below average some widespread frosty mornings are on the cards

A snapshot Thurs > Sat

[knocker]

A quick look at the EC46 update for the last two weeks of November

From the 15-22 the vortex/trough northern Canada, a suggestion of ridging eastern Greenland but the main features essentially a strong westerly upper flow abating somewhat in the eastern Atlantic courtesy of relatively anomalous high pressure over Europe. Temp around average Not a dissimilar picture for the following week, perhaps some more marked ridging into Greenland and a suggestion of slight height rises in the vicinity of the UK as the European anomaly recedes. All suggesting a less volatile period with perhaps a N/S split with temps around average or a tad below

 

Edited November 1, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm makes a little more of the midweek low with perhaps some wintry precipitation on the mountains in the north

Edited November 1, 2019 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Gale force winds and heavy rain moving into the the S/W tomorrow morning.

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

There will definitely be snow for high ground and every chance of snow for favoured  lower levels too with the runs going as they are.  

 

BFTP

[bluearmy]

If it weren’t for the spv forecast and the concern of it coupling down below, I would be pretty confident of a wintry second half November ahead. The first half will likely be below av temps in any case.  whilst the tpv seems keen to ratchet itself up over Canada, there remains the likelihood of scandi and griceland ridging of some type - will that be marked enough to drive wave 2 courtesy of the repeated amplification the other side of the NH or will it just be the wedge type which is fairly transient but enough to divert the jet se and keep us more than interested .....the latter would be good enough in the short term but upstream would probably take control and drive a stronger n arm to blow through the e Atlantic into nw Europe. 

I have to say, I don’t recall being this interested in the actual trop modelling and existing patterns for many years at this early stage of the season.   It’s usually the LR models and the upper strat which promise whereas this year we seem to be in amongst it immediately. 

Edited November 1, 2019 by bluearmy

[knocker]

You are a wag ba. You're only saying that to get the forces of darkness agitated,

[bluearmy]

39 minutes ago, knocker said:

You are a wag ba. You're only saying that to get the forces of darkness agitated,

It’s .................... November !

i don’t expect you to get that knocks ........ wasn’t the type of wag you’re familiar with ! 

 

[phil nw.]

No sign of any quieter weather as we enter November which i guess is no surprise as it is the time of year that we start to see the developing pv.

ECM mean 500 hPa charts for days 5 and 10 show plenty of mobility in the Atlantic heading our way.

Quite sharp troughing showing at times over the eastern Atlantic and the UK with the jet heading on a nw-se trajectory later so some polar air getting into the mix with the chances of some snowfall over the Scottish highlands. 

Nothing out of the ordinary for late Autumn but a longer drier spell i am sure would be welcome after all the rain of the last few weeks but for now this looks unlikely.

[Methuselah]

A nice anticyclone in place at the tail-end of the GFS 00Z...and still no sign of a rampant +NAO:

   

The GEF Operational is still on the colder side of the ensembles, however:

   

   

But, then again, so has the last few weeks' weather...?

[knocker]

The SYNOP October summaries

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/PREV.html

[northwestsnow]

Nice GFS 6z..

Looks cold as we head through next week...

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Nice GFS 6z..

Looks cold as we head through next week...

Just about to say kid  wonderfull 6z  and not deep into fi either

[ICE COLD]

Yer the 6z is looking tasty . 

[carinthian]

The pressure pattern below from the UKMO very much akin to that from our experts over here for early part of next week. The low expected to move slowly SE and fill with the Alpine region remaining on the boundary of the Polar Front. The next low expected to transfer from Southern Greenland as the week progresses with its track towards Central Britain. How far south or east it tracks remains in doubt at this stage, however, the feelings from our experts do not favour the ECM  latest prog to sink it due south towards Iberia. More a course to track the 300mb flow NW/SE . Now the important first snow portal results : Quite a large area of snowfall expected to develop over Central and Southern Scandinavia early next week. Troughs associated with this development in the flow could produce some snow at lower levels for a time , particularly in the Northern Isles and generally on higher parts of mainland Northern Scotland. Percentage  expectation of some snow showers in Lerwick is 80% where the depth of cold will be greatest and 30% in Inverness at sea level and 50% above 300m in the highlands. Hope this helps. Will get another portal forecast tomorrow and more details on the view of the next low track / development.

C

 

[ICE COLD]

And the 6z gets even colder with widespread cold uppers

[northwestsnow]

GFS looks similar to EC by day 10 with a suggestion of the Azores high ridging towards scandy...

 

[northwestsnow]

On this run Scotland sees some impressive minima as we get to next weekend, -5/-6 is pretty damn cold for the 2nd week of November!!

There is a big powerful vortex building across Greenland however..

[The Real Snowman]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

It’s .................... November !

i don’t expect you to get that knocks ........ wasn’t the type of wag you’re familiar with ! 

 

Forces of darkness.

[mb018538]

Roll up, roll up. Get your dark purple and black colours to the NW of the UK here! No money on you? Don't worry, there will be plenty more to go around for the next 4 months!

[Polar Maritime]

The 6z is a cool/cold run throughout Wk2, With a N/N/Ely flow.

The PV not looking to healthy either..