Model Output Discussion - early October

[Mucka]

23 hours ago, LRD said:

I have to say I'm not a fan of anomaly charts unless they are looking at precipitation or temperature. Or both. Those pressure anomaly charts can be really misleading

Yes they certainly can, Just thought it was an interesting anomaly.

Meanwhile my pressure anomaly forecast for first half November a week or so ago though is looking pretty good.

A very mild to start to November looks like belying what may well be a below average CET for first half of the month.

I have no idea what type of Winter we may get but enjoy watching the background signals.

[Methuselah]

Could be a tad interesting, precipitation-wise...?

   

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, shaky said:

Yes lovely little slider low there!!or almost a slider low!!pretty cold charts being churned out from sunday onwards!!hopefully gfs gives us the same!!

Aye, no interest for me, but some members will see snow off slider 7th Nov 2019, FI of course but what is definite, low lying S areas won't see snow this soon, 4 weeks or so too soon for a 10 Dec 2017 snow fest

[Frosty.]

Well yet again the GEFS is churning out some wintry potential next week and beyond both from the north and then the east according to the 12z with scandi / blocking high chances seemingly growing towards mid nov!!. Wouldn't that be marvellous if it's right!!

Edited October 31, 2019 by JON SNOW

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Never to soon Atlantic 252 for promising cold ensembles to start showing! Get the cold locked in... And the white stuff may follow!! Yes it's early days, but it would be dam nice to get a cold pattern locked in for a while. And as Karl eluded to just, some very tasty ensembles emerging.... Maybe it's to early.... But I still feel a touch of excitement building. 

[shaky]

Any news on ecm 12z!!!bit further south east hopefully!

[Methuselah]

Quite a cold set of GEFS 12Z ensembles...things are well-and-truly on the up!

    

    

[ICE COLD]

26 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any news on ecm 12z!!!bit further south east hopefully!

Here you go shaky . Not a bad run for the start of November. Chilly through out . 
 

T120 through to T240 = seasonal 

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Here you go shaky . Not a bad run for the start of November. Chilly through out . 
 

T120 through to T240 = seasonal 

Looks better!!!!nice one mate

[JBMWeatherForever]

Increasingly interesting from a cold perspective as we move into November, certainly looks below normal at the very least. November snowfalls a distinct possibility this year.     

[northwestsnow]

Interesting ECM det this evening- generally colder as the run goes on and a slack northerly at day 8 might produce some low mins..

Edit- weather US confirms widespread sub zero nights this time next week.

 

Edited October 31, 2019 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

Little change from this morning with the ext EPS with temps below average and a slack gradient portending a tricky surface analysis, Some differences with NOAA but still the same ball park

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Steady as she goes... Another cold run from the ECM mean... Much more seasonal... 

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Steady as she goes... Another cold run from the ECM mean... Much more seasonal... 

Yes Matt,beginning to look much more seasonal next week - this ties in with the Exeter update, in the interests of balance they do then foresee the high pressure collapsing east or South East to allow the Atlantic in..Still, plenty of time for that to change, which is why its interesting to see the thoughts of folks much more knowledgeable than myself.

I'm kind of bookmarking next weekend for a break in West Yorks for some fishing and walking in the Pennines - i appreciate nature much more know i'm getting old(er) !!

 

Edited October 31, 2019 by northwestsnow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes Matt,beginning to look much more seasonal next week - this ties in with the Exeter update, in the interests of balance they do then foresee the high pressure collapsing east or South East to allow the Atlantic in..Still, plenty of time for that to change, which is why its interesting to see the thoughts of folks much more knowledgeable than myself.

I'm kind of bookmarking next weekend for a break in West Yorks for some fishing and walking in the Pennines - i appreciate nature much more know i'm getting old(er) !!

 

Likewise mate... Ive learned alot since following this forum, the knowledge of some is immense. Good to see a cold blast so early on for a change, and like you say the Atlantic may break through towards mid month, but a long way off, and the thing that interests me, is the fact the Atlantic has kind of been weak and meandering for the last couple of years now!! Hopefully this will be the year that most of us crave... Goodll luck with the weekend break...

[Jordan S]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, no interest for me, but some members will see snow off slider 7th Nov 2019, FI of course but what is definite, low lying S areas won't see snow this soon, 4 weeks or so too soon for a 10 Dec 2017 snow fest

Mainly because these sliders aren't around the 10th December hence no low lying southern England snow.

Edited October 31, 2019 by jordan smith

[Jordan S]

Hi will keep this less detailed than normal feeling a bit shook after a car accident a few hours ago I'm glad to be alive and unhurt. Off topic I understand but we are like close friends on here and thought to share what happened.

Anyway unsettled and windy for this weekend and next week with several low pressure systems dumbelling around the UK rain at times and very windy on Saturday for the south not too chilly though. 

Ecm. 

Ukmo.. 

 

Edited October 31, 2019 by jordan smith

[Met4Cast]

EC46 not too different from the ext EPS knocker posted earlier on. Heights generally to the N/NE with temperatures below average for the first part of November 

Blocking relaxes during the second half but interestingly a signal for blocking to the east returns during December, though little point worrying that far ahead at this stage.

[Mike Poole]

^^ first,  hope you are OK, Jordan.

So, a day further on, any clues as to the way forward, and I'm meaning towards cold prospects now as we enter November. The 12s at T240:

The point I want to highlight is the difference between these, massive uncertainty at this range, the GEM seeming to decapitate that rabbit I was on about last night!  Since none of these evolutions will actually happen in all probability, I won't opine on implications for the UK in the short term.  

Moving on to T300, GFS:

Does this show evolution to an Aleutian low Scandi high that others have talked about as putting pressure on the strat?  Well the strat looks like this at same time on the GFS 0z and ensembles:

Just some pressure from the SW, but I think we might see some more interesting plots of the strat in coming days...but what of the trop vortex, T300:

Mid November now, and looks marmalized to me...I think there will be a crunch point about 20 Nov as whether the trop vortex goes in our favour for a proper early shot at cold, or we have an early SSW, or the strat and trop couple, and we are waiting until the second half of winter post a much later SSW, or none all...we will see.

Edited October 31, 2019 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

Here she comes with a late burst.

[feb1991blizzard]

Hello a repeat 28 years 11 months and 1 week later.

[ICE COLD]

Nice Northerly on the 18z . Another run and pretty much below average for the whole run . Gonna be a stonker of an end this run . 

[snowray]

Potential there for a lovely looking Northerly, just the sort of thing that makes Mid November a bit more interesting, like the good old days if it came off.

[ICE COLD]

Just didn’t quite align right and the really cold uppers just clip the north and get wasted at sea . 

[Tim Bland]

Hope we see lots more of this as we head into winter