Model Output Discussion - early October

[Iceaxecrampon]

39 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not a bad finish to today's GFS 00Z Operational...if you happen to like such synoptics, that is?

   

And even the GEFS ensembles are nae bad!

   

   

Too good to be true...?

GEFS Ensemlble extreme bottoms out at around 10th November.GFS has this day best for wintery ppn lowering to 1200ft asl (Cumbria) 900ft (Peak District) the date is banked!

Getting closer  - yes a nice early season start for coldies.

 

[Frosty.]

If anything, the Ecm 0z ensemble mean has trended even colder longer term..could get very interesting next week!❄

Edited October 31, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

Nae bad!!!!!!!!!!!!!  

 

                                                            

[Ali1977]

Day 10 on latest GFS, I’d take that for the second week of Nov. The Alps are looking to get a cracking start to the snow season too, although the resorts at Altitude benifitting mostly at this early stage!! 
There does look like towards mid Nov there’s a slim chance of a decent Scandy high forming, interesting model watching that’s for sure. 

 

The (east) Scandy HP on this run is epic, and gaining strength fast. If it verified this opens up some pretty interesting opportunities after Mid Nov - aware it’s just one run and in FI!! 
 

The Atlantic has hit a brick wall on this run, roll on an early beast

Edited October 31, 2019 by Ali1977

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Great posts folks.... Check

Out of likes..... Check. 

Get back to you later.... Check. 

Today's ECM ensembles colder than last nights..... Check. 

Looking pretty good..... Check.

[knocker]

The ext EPS mean anomaly this morning

Still amplified upstream with a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard  but a more pronounce divergence in the eastern Atlantic courtesy of the European ridge and the trough which is now aligned over Iberia,Thus the indications are for a slack gradient across the UK with a tricky surface analysis that will requite sorting by the det runs and temps still a tad below average

[jules216]

GFS 6Z tries to paint probably the most optimistic outcome out of the very poor hemispheric pattern. I have circled the area which is under quasi permanent anomalous high pressure for months if not for good few years. This then cuts of most of Europe from coldest source of air. Actually UK/IE has at least got some surface cold under reasonable low pressure in anticyclonic flow  with potential for some -6C T850 hPa, while the rest of Europe prepares for another dose of Indian summer

[johnholmes]

9 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ext EPS mean anomaly this morning

Still amplified upstream with a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard  but a more pronounce divergence in the eastern Atlantic courtesy of the European ridge and the trough which is now aligned over Iberia,Thus the indications are for a slack gradient across the UK with a tricky surface analysis that will requite sorting by the det runs and temps still a tad below average

Yes thanks k I agree with that so saves me posting my anomaly charts. Actual surface as you suggest is going to be fairly tricky to forecast.

[SMU]

Morning-

As @carinthian has highlighted the modelling of the low pressure is edging further south & East with each run- small increments allow for the cold to penetrate further south.

Its not a major cold blast however across the piste in England the 850s dipping towards around -2/-3c indicate an anomaly of about -5c.

Scotland however gets the better most sustained feed of cold with -6/-7c air arriving which is certainly cold enough for some wintry showers even to lower levels.

More importantly for Scotland, once embedded from day 5 the models are starting to slide the atlantic mobility more & more SW with shallow low pressures tilted on a more acute NW > SE axis, so Scotland could be in for a sustained cold period now hitting very low single digit CETs around 2c.

The slider low ( around 168 ) could introduce the threat of snow especially to the SW of Scotland / Northern England however the track is still unclear.

Post 192> Ideas if a scandi high increase the risk of continental cold arriving in England which at this stage could get around -6/-7 but lets get the next 2-3 days out the way first.

Enjoyable times model watching...

Edited October 31, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Iceaxecrampon]

06z

Yes a decent early(ish) promising November setup from the GFS

10-11-2019

 

 

[Ali1977]

Day 10 mean showing the chance of something chillier from the North, then 4 cherry picked day 16s. The second one is pretty impressive

[knocker]

No surprise that a rain warning is out for Saturday and it will be windy in the SW/S as well

[legritter]

Hi gang ,great posts ,fantastic Forum .very interesting 7 to 10 day period looming , looks like a fair chance of wintry mixture but at this stage with elevation and plenty of wet weather before .cheers .

[Duane S.]

As always with our potential cold spells it is all about looking for those windows of opportunity (and then becoming despondant and moving on to the next one... ).

Right now though we look fairly well nailed on for LP system(s) #1 coming through this weekend, #2 mid next week and #3 next weekend. Not withstanding some potential for hill winteriness during this period, clearly thereafter lies our initial real hope.

It is far too simplistic to see the SPV vortex winding up and assume this will couple with the TPV, sit over GL, and dictate our weather for the forseeable future in terms of a mild zonal mush outcome.

We do not have a 'Bartlett' or a stagnent 'Euro High' sat over Benelux / Germany. The high is sat further east and whilst that may annoy some living more Central - east Europe, this could set up NW Europe to be the main beneficiaries of this. The Alps could certainly take an early absolute hammering going though November into December.

Whilst this could of course all change, I do feel that the general jet profile / Azores High has been pulled back west enough to make things very interesting. Stormy, oh yes, probably on and off for the next 6+ weeks or so, but I still think that this is heading towards real SE diving jet territory.

And let's not forget that tomorrow we still have a month before winter starts offically! I won't get into the whole annual Meteorological / Astronomical Winter who-hah, save that for December time...

[Frosty.]

Sorry, can't post the charts right now but the GEFS 6z mean indicates a cold shot next week followed by another cold shot into the following week with a risk of snow on northern hills and perhaps some lower ground, and overnight frosts / icy patches... a wintry flavour, especially further north..as I said earlier, next week could become very interesting with colder air gradually filtering further south combined with continued unsettled / cyclonic conditions and further ahead there continues to be a signal for scandi height rises so perhaps a cold block could become established further into november!.

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

After a disappointingly cloudy, wet & windy week (half term for some of us) in SW UK, there are hopes at least of the sunshine returning from the north by Sunday, with northerly winds it may well become much drier in the far South of Wales & South Devon with a bit of shelter from the mountains/moors to start next week, ideal for Bonfire night itself. Some forecasts are hinting at this possibility 

[Methuselah]

Not the worst set of GEFS 06Z ensembles I've ever seen -- but, not necessarily the best, either...? I think the GFS Operational is playing the 'outlier card' again, so may need special consideration?

   

   

Winter's coming!

[snowray]

Makes a change that we are getting a very seasonal Autumn. Milder first half of October, Colder second half, and now an even colder first half of November looks to be on the cards.

 

I noticed that our continental friends in Italy at "Meteo Giornale" are going for an early Siberian blast moving into Europe in their extended 15 day forecast, and it's always a pleasure to see LP centred over Italy for us coldies.

[nick sussex]

Quite an interesting medium term outlook .

The track se of low pressure and the reluctance of the PV to set up over Greenland keeps the door open to some below average temps .

At this time of year the continent can cool rapidly under the right conditions .

The GFS upto day ten is perfectly plausible, for coldies the area to look out for is towards southern Central Europe .

So low pressure northern Italy is what we’re looking for , not south of the UK as that allows air sourced from the Med.

Decent chance of Scandi high developing but still lots of uncertainty as to whether that will be underpinned by a favourable low pressure in the right place .

So lots to look out for over the coming days .

[knocker]

Interesting cold front in the south east of the US at the moment where it has been exceptionally warm of late

Edited October 31, 2019 by knocker

[SMU]

Lovely UKMO tonight 144 showing potential for snow over Scotland & high ground over Northern England - maybe even NI

Pretty cold uppers feeding SW ~ -6c

 

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lovely UKMO tonight 144 showing potential for snow over Scotland & high ground over Northern England - maybe even NI

Pretty cold uppers feeding SW ~ -6c

 

Yes lovely little slider low there!!or almost a slider low!!pretty cold charts being churned out from sunday onwards!!hopefully gfs gives us the same!!

[booferking]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lovely UKMO tonight 144 showing potential for snow over Scotland & high ground over Northern England - maybe even NI

Pretty cold uppers feeding SW ~ -6c

 

Slidergate 2019 is here.

[knocker]

20 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yes lovely little slider low there!!or almost a slider low!!pretty cold charts being churned out from sunday onwards!!hopefully gfs gives us the same!!

Would you believe the gfs tracks it east

[nick sussex]

This possible slider low reminds me of the one last winter which caused a lot of drama in here. 

The models had a problem with its depth . As a rule the shallower the better for coldies .

Its a bit too early in the season for a more widespread affair .  The ECM over recent days has been less bullish with the cold air heading south , it’s been more reluctant to do that so we’ll see later whether that changes.