Model Output Discussion - early October

[knocker]

As indicated previously the amplification upstream, in particular the cold trough. peps up the jet stream which keeps the Atlantic active complicated somewhat by the high cell over Iceland/Greenland which diverts some of the upper flow. Thus remaining unsettled after a brief mid week respite but temps a little below average. Just a couple of surface charts for illustrative purposes

Edited October 30, 2019 by knocker

[Zak M]

I know this is far away, but this could be something for the winter fans! 

[knocker]

And to follow on from my post above the ext EPS mean anomaly has the combination of the strong westerly flow and the European/Iceland ridge forcing the Eastern Atlantic trough a tad south. Thus temps still below average but the quite likely complex surface detail will have to await the det output at a later date.

Edited October 30, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean has trended colder longer term compared to the 0z, especially further north, there's a good chance of trough disruption too..if I was the betting type I would put money on a chance of snow next week, at least on northern hills and an increasing incidence of frosts and icy patches based on today's output!!!.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Fantastic evening, clear skies and a frost in the air here. Not looking forward to the unsettled spell this weekend, especially with so many bonfires on the go... Hopefully the family one next Tuesday will be better. Not to much spoke about the ECM mean, apart from Karl who just covered it well... But me likes it... Good peeps of netweather, that mean is slowly but surely coming down.... Bring me more frosty clear night conditions, and perhaps throw a bit of snow in for good measure. 

[ICE COLD]

The GFS 18z really ramps the Atlantic up but well into la la land . You can’t even see the uk on the map . At least it won’t be mild . 

[feb1991blizzard]

Look at this again - useless Uk while the frigid cold nearly gets as far as the deep South.

[Sceptical]

Atlantic ramping up....

 

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look at this again - useless Uk while the frigid cold nearly gets as far as the deep South.

Yep noticed that too . Extremely cold across the USA on this run . Makes you sick . Are time will come again for brutal cold but when that is is anyone’s guess . 

[Cheshire Freeze]

42 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look at this again - useless Uk while the frigid cold nearly gets as far as the deep South.

Whilst the N Pacific pattern stays the same and you've got cold pouring into Canada and the USA like that, you'll see heights lower over Greenland and the jet ramp up. It has been the same for the past few years. 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Whilst the N Pacific pattern stays the same and you've got cold pouring into Canada and the USA like that, you'll see heights lower over Greenland and the jet ramp up. It has been the same for the past few years. 

Yes, last time we had a stonker plunge really deep into Eastern USA and a stonker right into UK from a N'ly would have been around the turn of the last decade i would have thought, but the USA on its own have had many including a November one in 2014 amongst others.

[Jordan S]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look at this again - useless Uk while the frigid cold nearly gets as far as the deep South.

Its only the end of October plenty of time for a northerly plunge.. tbh would prefer that in December January as opposed to now would feel like a bit of a waste of a cold northerly much more beneficial for cold lovers later in the winter. 

GFS ensembles looking unsettled but tbh not as wet as it was showing in earlier runs so atm the GFS isn't showing particularly high rainfall totals for most during the weekend into next week mainly due to two depressions being further south although not dry by any means but could change obviously in the next couple of days to something even wetter again. 

Edited October 31, 2019 by jordan smith

[tinybill]

5 hours ago, jordan smith said:

Its only the end of October plenty of time for a northerly plunge.. tbh would prefer that in December January as opposed to now would feel like a bit of a waste of a cold northerly much more beneficial for cold lovers later in the winter. 

GFS ensembles looking unsettled but tbh not as wet as it was showing in earlier runs so atm the GFS isn't showing particularly high rainfall totals for most during the weekend into next week mainly due to two depressions being further south although not dry by any means but could change obviously in the next couple of days to something even wetter again. 

could  not agree  more  with  loads of rain to come from now to deep fantasy world, then  the gfs is hinting  of a eastly  with the south east at 384  hr possible geting hit by snow  coming off the pond  intersting  model watching  to come,  i think

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and he 0400 UK surface chart

The front that has brought copious amounts of rain to the south west over the last couple of days is still creeping north east but dissipating against the high pressure.Thus much of the rain should die out as we go through the morning. But the cloudy and generality drab conditions will continue to spread north east. Elsewhere a cold start with a widespread frost and some freezing fog in places which may linger a while but once cleared sunny interval will prevail

But by dusk further fronts associated with another low tracking east will rain into western regions and this will spread north east overnight accompanied by milder air

But simultaneously further upper troughs have been tracking south east from Canada and by midday Friday there is a complex area of low pressure stretching from the UK to Greenland. This results in a cloudy day with outbreaks of rain, albeit milder

Overnight the surface low associated with the trough deepens and is 970mb over Belfast by midday, Thus a day of strong winds with  coastal gales in the south west and a mixture of longer periods of rain and sunshine and heavy showers

The evolution over the next two days is quite complex with the subtropical high amplifying in the west and the trough in the east  tacking on a positive tilt within which one surface low tracks towards Scotland whilst another develops in the south west quadrant and tracks south east into northern France. So we are looking at another day of persistent rain and sunshine and showers and still windy with gales in some areas But by Monday an occlusion is tracking south and cooler air will be introduced in it's wake as the surface wind veers northerly

Edited October 31, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

According to the gfs the Canada > UK trough conduit continues to be a major player though the 5-10 period, ergo a continuation of unsettled weather and temps below average. Of course as usual there will day to day variations and showers could be of the wintry variety the north. The charts are just illustrative and not to be taken as likely to verify

[knocker]

And the GEFS much as expected with a strong upper flow running south of the North American trough

[shaky]

12 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

No comment re the ECM yet, it follows other models in the early part, but then this at T216:

With some latitude on anatomy, looks like a rabbit that has been given an enema!

Not the best of ecm runs this morning!!trough takes to long to clear south east wards!!hopefully 12z pushes everything further east and south slightly!

[mb018538]

Here comes trouble??
 

Edited October 31, 2019 by mb018538

[knocker]

Running the ecm through T144 > 192 sees the UK trough being 'topped' up from a couple of routes nut mainly from Canada so remaining unsettled/ perhaps a brief respite thereafter as the subtropical zones force the UK trough south Temps a tad below average but the usual caveats apply

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 0z operational certainly shows some wintry weather next week with snow in the north with another cold shot into the following week..fingers crossed!!❄

Edited October 31, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Iceaxecrampon]

 

[Methuselah]

Not a bad finish to today's GFS 00Z Operational...if you happen to like such synoptics, that is?

   

And even the GEFS ensembles are nae bad!

   

   

Too good to be true...?

[jules216]

Nothing new on the status quo pattern we are locking ourselves in continental Europe. The output for November standards is hideous, just checked the 0Z EPS, for a location that is 800m.asl in Tatra Mountains,one of the coldest valleys in central Europe. The T850 mean never drops below +2.3C until the forecast period end. So running at approx. 4 to 5C above average by middle of November.

[carinthian]

The UKMO high res seems to be taking the low further south with each run. If this theme continues much of NW Europe turning colder next week whilst SE Europe holds on to its very warm Autumn conditions. Wonder if the UK is in a switch to better chance tapping into early winter cold set up for a change ? . Should be able to access my first snow portal service tomorrow with specific interest to Scotland and Ireland.

C

[Catacol]

9 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Whilst the N Pacific pattern stays the same and you've got cold pouring into Canada and the USA like that, you'll see heights lower over Greenland and the jet ramp up. It has been the same for the past few years. 

Yes accurate I think. We are again staring at a huge area of ice free water around Alaska and a semi permanent ridge in the North Pacific over that warm anomaly that forces a downstream US trough. Early winter, as wavelengths extend, makes it very difficult therefore to avoid a strong Atlantic jet barrelling through (or close) to the UK.

What it does allow, however, is a Scandy ridge and this we are seeing in the extended. This opens up the possibility of vortex disruption and interest later in the season. As wavelengths begin to shorten again in the second half of winter it opens up the possibility of that Scandy signal retrogressing a tad....and cold air arriving. 

In general it would be good to see lower pressure over the North Pacific just so that the jet can be discouraged, but we aren’t there yet. All of this continues to nudge me closer to a call of a generally stormy December and any serious cold this winter back loaded and linked to disruption of the SPV. Would be useful to see warm anomalies in the oceans around Greenland remain in place. Much to assess though before firming up on this call. There is a suggestion that the Aleutian Low might come into play second half of November, and December is still a long way off. Extent of downwards vortex propagation through November will also tell us much about the strat/trop yin/yang this coming season.