Model Output Discussion - early October

[Sceptical]

50 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A lovely clean cold Northerly on the models now ! 
Some snow for Scotland & possibly elsewhere....

Hints of Scandi pressure after that....

Snow has been forecast for parts of Scotland from the 2nd onwards since yesterday.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Sceptical said:

Snow has been forecast for parts of Scotland from the 2nd onwards since yesterday.

Not without the Ecm on board and clearly the Ecm is less cold / milder..  call me Scepticalbut we don't have cross model support...yet..as ever, more runs needed!. 

Edited October 30, 2019 by Blessed Weather
Cartoon removed.

[knocker]

45 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any update on ecm steve!!if its anything like this mornings ukmo i be happy!!

Well I'm obviously not Murr but if a lesser mortal will suffice

Over the weekend, particularly Saturday the ecm rapidly deepens the first low near the left exit of the jet so every windy and wet but the speed of the cyclogenesis and the timing may be an issue as this morning's fax updates are not in full agreement with this

The last half of the run continues unsettled with perhaps the middle of next week a slight breather before the next major trough arrives. Temps around average but obviously there will be day to day and regional variations as systems move east

Edited October 30, 2019 by knocker

[Sceptical]

1 minute ago, JON SNOW said:

Not without the Ecm on board and clearly the Ecm is milder, call me Scepticalbut we don't have cross model support...yet!. 

What does the ECM have to do with a Met office FORECAST, covering yesterday through to Monday?

 

[matty40s]

21 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

What does the ECM have to do with a Met office FORECAST, covering yesterday through to Monday?

 

This is a thread about model output, there are threads elsewhere about forecasts and met office stuff

He was pointing out that one models dont always agree with forecasts....even if the output is wrong.

Edited October 30, 2019 by matty40s

[Methuselah]

GFS 00Z Operational maintains a block, throughout, this morning. So, so far, so good?

  

But it is very-much on the colder side of the ensembles:

   

   

Ergo, any ejaculations regarding 'how much snow and where' are a tad premature...?

[knocker]

18 minutes ago, matty40s said:

This is a thread about model output, there are threads elsewhere about forecasts and met office stuff

He was pointing out that one models dont always agree with forecasts....even if the output is wrong.

There is also one for ramps, etc, but that doesn't restrict this thread from being one also using a pseudonym

Edited October 30, 2019 by knocker

[mb018538]

41 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well I'm obviously not Murr but if a lesser mortal will suffice

Over the weekend, particularly Saturday the ecm rapidly deepens the first low near the left exit of the jet so every windy and wet but the speed of the cyclogenesis and the timing may be an issue as this morning's fax updates are not in full agreement with this

The last half of the run continues unsettled with perhaps the middle of next week a slight breather before the next major trough arrives. Temps around average but obviously there will be day to day and regional variations as systems move east

Looks about right to me @knocker.

Half of the trouble is that if you follow this thread or the strat thread religiously, you'd think we're permanently a week or two away from snowmaggedon or a deep freeze from November until April.

[knocker]

The ext mean anomalies this morning. although varying somewhat vis the detail, are broadly speaking singing from the same hymn sheet

The main features being a ridge in NE North America extending into Siberia with the main TPV northern Canada with the trough extending south.

Thus a very strong upper flow exiting the north east seaboard across the Atlantic, But on reaching the eastern Atlantic the flow abates and diverges courtesy of the other main features, namely the European ridge and the trough  that has now been relegated south, This is the tricky area and the det runs will need to resolve the surface analysis, but the indications are that it will be changeable with temps a tad below average

Edited October 30, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean turns very unsettled and it becomes milder for a time but then trends colder, especially further north and continues unsettled / cyclonic..there is a hint of a mid atlantic ridge and with colder air from the N/ NE gradually feeding into the trough over the uk there would probably be an increasing risk of snow on northern hills and overnight frosts / icy patches.

Edited October 30, 2019 by JON SNOW

[carinthian]

Snow quite widespread this morning in the area with freezing level at 1300m. This latest Winter overview chart below for the middle of next week excites me a lot. Significant snowfalls likely in the Alps. We start our snow portal service on November 1st with advanced forecasting access in preparation for the start of the new season in about 4 weeks, so will keep you updated with views from the team over here with an added interest for Blighty snow predictions thrown in for good measure. Getting exited. Skiis waxed and logs piled to the rafters !

 C

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The 6z continues in the same theme as the 0z,namely we start to drag some colder air south next week! Snowmaggedon.... No!! Deep freeze... No... Still to early! But for some places further North, and at elevation, snowfall could be an increasing possibility!! Could a few surprises turn up at short notice further south is the question!!! We are getting close to that time of the year called in weather terms.... The asylum! Expect the unexpected, and you won't be disappointed, good folks!

[Methuselah]

Bin the GFS 06Z, everybody knows it's crap!

   

[knocker]

Under the complex upper trough the 06 gfs has one surface low situated over Scotland during the weekend whilst the other tracks east to the south, The details are still along way from being a done deal

 

Edited October 30, 2019 by knocker

[Jordan S]

Gfs and Ecm less wet than yesterday although could flip back GFS has the second low for early next week staying to the south taking its very wet and windy weather to France the one for Sunday has trended south too we shall see.. Ecm and gfs rainfall accumulation chart for the next week or so aren't as much either apart from the southwest still mind you plenty wet enough and this could change back wetter.

Gfs ensembles still looking unsettled for the first half of November currently. 

[Ali1977]

The PV looking a little more organised into mid Nov on the 06z, the 16 day mean shows this quite well. Let’s see if the 12z follows suite, and offers less blocky type solutions!! 

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Snow quite widespread this morning in the area with freezing level at 1300m. This latest Winter overview chart below for the middle of next week excites me a lot. Significant snowfalls likely in the Alps. We start our snow portal service on November 1st with advanced forecasting access in preparation for the start of the new season in about 4 weeks, so will keep you updated with views from the team over here with an added interest for Blighty snow predictions thrown in for good measure. Getting exited. Skiis waxed and logs piled to the rafters !

 C

Wheres this Cairngorm?

Oh I see the Alps.

[jules216]

28 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The PV looking a little more organised into mid Nov on the 06z, the 16 day mean shows this quite well. Let’s see if the 12z follows suite, and offers less blocky type solutions!! 

Typical late autumn outcome:

1. Vortex Greenland/Hudson Bay - check

2. Sceuro High - check

3. Coldies chasing CFS long range strat. charts - check

4. Time to already take break from model watching - check

[Frosty.]

There's quite a bit of support from the GEFS 6z for scandi height rises longer term which might mean an Easterly for the uk..never a warm direction in november!!!

[Catacol]

34 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Typical late autumn outcome:

1. Vortex Greenland/Hudson Bay - check

2. Sceuro High - check

3. Coldies chasing CFS long range strat. charts - check

4. Time to already take break from model watching - check

It’s an ensemble mean chart - and check more carefully re points 1 and 2... no Euro high and Greenland positive anomaly in place.

[jules216]

6 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

There's quite a bit of support from the GEFS 6z for scandi height rises longer term which might mean an Easterly for the uk..never a warm direction in november!!!

I disagree, its not a long fetch easterly anomaly at all where you drag Siberian air. Its more like southerly,south easterly where winds are being dragged from vicinity of Turkey! With polar vortex deciding to park in usual spot Greenland/Hudson Bay, Europe is left with limped Sceuro high and totally devoid of any reasonable cold. I think this couldn't be worse than GEFS 6Z output, but entirely plausible by recent winters standards. I know its a forecast for middle of November, but why we can't have an early visit from winter if Americans get in whenever with no issues in November. Another above average month beckons for most of continental Europe apart from UK or IE.

[jules216]

2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

It’s an ensemble mean chart - and check more carefully re points 1 and 2... no Euro high and Greenland positive anomaly in place.

Point 1 - Sceuro high - not a classic Bartlett - but source of winds would be south easterly and check how far away is any reasonable source of cold air - I know its an ensemble mean but look at member by member and see where cold air is.

Point 2. - I see negative anomalies around Greenland on the mean, see picture

[Methuselah]

That's the thing, with wholesale pressure-rises -- the weather on the ground can be extremely sensitive to relatively minor movement/orientation...?

   

   

So, it's far too soon to be getting antsy about 'less than ideal' solutions.

[Catacol]

2 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Point 1 - Sceuro high - not a classic Bartlett - but source of winds would be south easterly and check how far away is any reasonable source of cold air - I know its an ensemble mean but look at member by member and see where cold air is.

Point 2. - I see negative anomalies around Greenland on the mean, see picture

Every chart tells a story but you are going to struggle to depress people on here with that 16 day mean. There is clearly no euro high, there is a strong Scandy anomaly which will aid with any wave 2 action keeping the strat vortex from descending too effectively, and that is hardly a raging low pressure anomaly off the tip of Greenland. In addition there is a suggestion of a cross polar ridge. Arguing about air source from a 16 day mean run is pointless...but I’d also suggest much more of an easterly air source over much of Europe than you are seeing. That is NOT a poor chart for winter if the long game is the one being played, and if it comes to pass like that then I’d suggest some long range seasonal forecasts are in trouble before the season even starts.

But as said already, details will be different when mid November actually arrives. Personally my optimism has grown over recent days.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm not going to get into a war of words with fellow posters on here regarding early cold chances, firstly there are a dam sight lot more knowledgeable than me for one. Secondly its far to early to be worrying about just where exactly heights are going to be setting up, or not setting up at this stage! A cold shot looks plausible next week!!!snow for some even!!! That would indicate to me, an early taste of winter! But in all honesty we need to fast forward another 4-6 weeks before we can start making sweeping judgement on early winter!! No need for anyone to take a break from model watching at this early stage folks... Let's sit back, relax, and let it unwind!!! And breath!! And the 6z ensembles weren't a write off by any means... Still plenty of colder options on the table.... Its all good.  ps the op lost the plot at times towards the end of the run... No surprises there then.