Model Output Discussion - early October

[Jordan S]

7 hours ago, mb018538 said:

For those who hate low pressure (so that's everyone then!), maybe some crumbs of comfort:



ECM has the trough slowly lifting out as we head through day 10-12.

I like low pressure and rain  just not the thought of people getting flooded.. Canoes available anyone? Gfs certainly thinks we'll need it for the southern half of the UK anyway... 

Edited October 29, 2019 by jordan smith

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure about that - i like my troughs to be negatively tilted sliders to produce battleground snow setups, of course you can have winter storms with deep lows but pretty rare.

Eh, feb? Most of the really severe winter storms I can recall: the one in January 1968 that wiped-out thousands of sheep, the Braer storm in 1993(?), the December 1981 one that sunk the Penlee lifeboat, the February 1978 monster-blizzard that buried the SW...were all associated with deep lows...? 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Eh, feb? Most of the really severe winter storms I can recall: the one in January 1968 that wiped-out thousands of sheep, the Braer storm in 1993(?), the December 1981 one that sunk the Penlee lifeboat, the February 1978 monster-blizzard that buried the SW...were all associated with deep lows...? 

The 79 one was a really elongated stretched low - that was my point, not a ball shaped low.

[Jordan S]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The 79 one was a really elongated stretched low - that was my point, not a ball shaped low.

Tbh whatever shape they where they did a lot of damage both shaped lows have dumped a lot of snow in the past although "ball shaped ones" mixes out the air more so tends to be marginal for snow although there are exceptions.. 

Edited October 29, 2019 by jordan smith

[Jordan S]

ECM very unsettled this evening not only is rain likely to cause problems winds too if this run comes off a nasty low moving over southern parts during Sunday 3rd  then a very similar one just a day later giving a soaking to England and Wales again on Monday 4th very windy with gales in places if this verifies although the finer details are different to the gfs as you'd expect at this range

Rainfall accumulations upto just the 5th of November show 50-70mm or more having fallen for much of England and Wales even more in the southwest..

The weather has and certainly is continuing to make up for the extended drier than average conditions most southern parts have had in the last year or so upto the end of September with obvious blips in between June for example. Flooding will be the number one problem but winds perhaps beginning too aswell if this is right. 

Edited October 29, 2019 by jordan smith

[MATTWOLVES 3]

No panic from me folks on this evenings ECM run, the mean looks on the cold side to me. If anything the op was on the warmer side of things, I still feel we are heading for a gradual cooling as we enter November... No doubt a few wintry surprises turning up before much longer, especially if we keep those low pressure areas moving to the South!! It's all good. 

[Jordan S]

23 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

No panic from me folks on this evenings ECM run, the mean looks on the cold side to me. If anything the op was on the warmer side of things, I still feel we are heading for a gradual cooling as we enter November... No doubt a few wintry surprises turning up before much longer, especially if we keep those low pressure areas moving to the South!! It's all good. 

No panic from me either just showing concerns for flooding if the synoptics are correct and does look like they are getting more and more interesting for cold lovers as time goes on

GFS ensembles looking below average for temperatures for the most part in early November although some mildish outliers aswell probably with the low pressure systems taking a more southwest to northeast tragectory as apposed to West to east or northwest to southeast trajectory of lows as most are showing. 

Edited October 29, 2019 by jordan smith

[booferking]

Gfs looking good for a notherly early doors on this run.

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, booferking said:

Gfs looking good for a notherly early doors on this run.

 

Yes, GFS miles better than ECM, assuming we get to that point without drowning during the first part of the run.

[ICE COLD]

10 minutes ago, booferking said:

Gfs looking good for a notherly early doors on this run.

Yes it is . Let’s hope it’s right . 

Edited October 29, 2019 by ICE COLD

[January Snowstorm]

Nice to see the Northerly next week dragging down quite cold uppers. It's early in the season for such cold and quite different to last year...

I feel positive about the upcoming Winter and honestly think the long range glosea and Co could well be off the mark!!

[Mapantz]

8 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Nice to see the Northerly next week dragging down quite cold uppers. It's early in the season for such cold and quite different to last year...

It's not really much different to this time last year if you take a gander at the archives:

  

There were some quite low minima, even down here by the South coast.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

It's not really much different to this time last year if you take a gander at the archives:

 

There were some quite low minima, even down here by the South coast.

Yes, and the prognosis has looked good for winter early on in the season on a number of occasions in the last few years with blocking highs and Easterlies but without the cold uppers, but then the period of VI has been later but then scuppered the heart of winter.

[ICE COLD]

As long as the models keep churning out charts like this and verify similar to what is shown then surely it will bring the pv down at some point . 
 

STONKER 

[feb1991blizzard]

Meanwhile here comes a cold end to the run me thinks, look at that slow moving amplified trough powering WAA exactly in the right place - up the Western side of Greenland.

[Catacol]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

It's not really much different to this time last year if you take a gander at the archives:

  

 

Funny you should say that - Masiello tweeted slightly tongue in cheek the same today. Aside from a specific difference in the QBO sign background conditions are not hugely different perhaps. This time around, however, we have a sustained -NAO pattern over the last few months and long range modelling forecasting a change to dominant +NAO conditions. Last year phantom northern blocking in the second half of winter was a theme the modelling refused to drop until late on. Interesting to see how it plays out, even if snow ultimately doesn't fall in my back garden...

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Meanwhile here comes a cold end to the run me thinks, look at that slow moving amplified trough powering WAA exactly in the right place - up the Western side of Greenland.

I sense a Déjà vu in the 18z along side the cpc 8-14 day outlook

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

I sense a Déjà vu in the 18z along side the cpc 8-14 day outlook

 

Trough to the South certainly a recurrent theme in the modelling.

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Trough to the South certainly a recurrent theme in the modelling.

Yes it has,i noticed the 12z tried for the Scandi high,now it's having a go at Greenland,can we have both...

[feb1991blizzard]

Hello powerhouse Easterly a few days later if it went out to 400+

[Jordan S]

43 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello powerhouse Easterly a few days later if it went out to 400+

Then likely showing the complete opposite the next run.. aah the joys of model watching doesn't mean it wouldn't verify though. 

[tinybill]

i  know its deep fantasy world  perhaps  the  gfs  is saying  be ready  for the  S  word   after all the rain we  goingto get  brefore hand!!

[SMU]

A lovely clean cold Northerly on the models now ! 
Some snow for Scotland & possibly elsewhere....

Hints of Scandi pressure after that....

[shaky]

36 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A lovely clean cold Northerly on the models now ! 
Some snow for Scotland & possibly elsewhere....

Hints of Scandi pressure after that....

Any update on ecm steve!!if its anything like this mornings ukmo i be happy!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

For me the set up is looking on much more on the cold side, LPs coming on Southerly and then NW/SE track and the period 7th Nov on GFS looks very interesting, that LP on NW/SE track hitting the cold air above Steve Murr Northerly and disrupting.  I’m certainly thinking we’ll be talking of snow over the next 2 weeks....with a marked temp boundary.  Looks like a good few weeks ahead.....will that Cold Scandi build?

 

BFTP

Edited October 30, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST