Model Output Discussion - early October

[booferking]

Easterly for Christmas. 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, booferking said:

Easterly for Christmas. 

 

 

If that run comes true it will be an Easterly laden December and snowy one too.

Edited October 29, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean shows a gradual descent into a very unsettled outlook and although it becomes milder for a time, it does trend colder later, especially further north. I think the words trough disruption and undercuts could be on the menu and there is potential for an early taste of winter next month as the 0z operational output shows!

Edited October 29, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Iceaxecrampon]

00z

+318 (I know )  promising Scandi LP for the E coast.

Closer timescale I thought there would be more made of this tbh.

 

 

[weirpig]

Crikey.  Some serious rainfall once again on the 6z   starting around friday  and lasting into next week   Details of where or whom gets the worst of it  is highly speculative  however most will get a drenching 

[mb018538]

13 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Crikey.  Some serious rainfall once again on the 6z   starting around friday  and lasting into next week   Details of where or whom gets the worst of it  is highly speculative  however most will get a drenching 

The 6z is actually drier than the 00z....Oxfordshire for example has 35mm less rainfall on the 6z at 192 hours than it does on the 00z. Very hard to get exact amounts of rainfall at the moment. It'll be wet for sure, but just how wet we don't know! 

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The 6z is actually drier than the 00z....Oxfordshire for example has 35mm less rainfall on the 6z at 192 hours than it does on the 00z. Very hard to get exact amounts of rainfall at the moment. It'll be wet for sure, but just how wet we don't know! 

That was my point  Rainfall totals  on the 6z are speculative  at best   but looking at the profile and the depressions running into the UK   wet and wild is the order of the day   and at present  this runs way into next week also.  These diving Lows  seem to have our name on them at the moment 

[Iceaxecrampon]

06z 

Upgrade for mid November

 

Ensembles all in agreement for a cool down.

[Mapantz]

17 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

06z 

Upgrade for mid November

That's the 00Z.

 

[Frosty.]

It wouldn't be very balanced of me if I didn't mention the Gfs 6z operational FI Blowtorch!

[mb018538]

For those who hate low pressure (so that's everyone then!), maybe some crumbs of comfort:



ECM has the trough slowly lifting out as we head through day 10-12.

[weirpig]

GFS 6z ensembles  in quite good agreement from the near to medium term    Wet  and cool

[Iceaxecrampon]

36 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

That's the 00Z.

 

Ooops.

And what a difference -  ensembles still have the lower temps heading to mid month.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 21/10/2019 at 14:37, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

MJO has now moved into phase 2 with the outlook currently taking it into COD within the next week or so although this could change but I will keep monitoring. So we have had phase 8 https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/31d9e0_3c062d439cb841d2eea3ea174256642b.pdf   latest GFS run   then we have briefly had phase 1   so I am on the lookout for higher pressure to start developing toward Scandi and given current conditions there (snow and temperatures below -20 C in some places, see my posts in the snow and ice thread) IF we could get an easterly flow some wintry weather wouldn't be out of the question (possibly briefly) then phase 2 suggests a Russian high could develop https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/31d9e0_32594828e48d18aa94d6c4b8b63b1f6e.pdf   with lower pressure starting to affect the UK.

The interesting weather pattern outlook continues.

We appear to be in a bit of a lag period in terms of feedback from the MJO phases, I am still hopeful of the higher pressure over Scandi emerging soon (give it another week and see where we are) I think the models are having more uncertainty that usual possibly due to the brief Hurricane Pablo and the ongoing cyclone Kyarr. Also should we get the higher pressure over Scandi and be lucky enough to get an easterly flow conditions over there have got even colder with quite a few places recording temperatures below -20 C and coldest spots being -27 C and also further snowfalls so wouldn't take much for the UK to potentially benefit from that cold air. Also the charts which tie in with the MJO phases we have had suggest the lower pressure that affects us will have a more NW - SE track rather than the usual W - E track so opportunities of cooler / colder air from the N / NW could be something to look out for.  https://1316da03-e6e5-4264-d4a8-7d2a1b50b5ed.filesusr.com/ugd/31d9e0_32594828e48d18aa94d6c4b8b63b1f6e.pdf MJO now entering COD but we have had phase 3 https://1316da03-e6e5-4264-d4a8-7d2a1b50b5ed.filesusr.com/ugd/31d9e0_1bf4d88338b094972c3d699d46516208.pdf which looks like lower pressure over and to the south of the UK and a possible linking of higher pressure from the Atlantic - Greenland - Scandi.

I will leave the in depth side of the stratospheric goings on to the usual experienced members in that field but not without interest with ensembles hinting at the PV possibly becoming elongated and stretched and possibly some hints of minor warming too, every little helps... (rather than post all the ensembles just run through them and you should see what I mean) 

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

It wouldn't be very balanced of me if I didn't mention the Gfs 6z operational FI Blowtorch!

Hey Karl, I feel the 6z op was a little extreme with those temps,, it completely divorced the pack! Some nice ensembles scattered amongst the runs again though. The one showing some seriously cold air sitting over scandy!! On a positive note thanks for posting that blow torch.... It reminds me I need one for the firework display!

[swfc]

Great charts on the GFS 12z if it was winter!!? Still it could be a lot worse on the nhp

[BlueHedgehog074]

Kinda the same on the UKMO 12Z this afternoon at 144 hours. This chart, if it happened a bit later in the year, could make for an appetising Winter chart for those of you snow weather enthusiasts in here, especially if you’re in the North of the UK. 

Low Pressure clearing to the East of the UK, bringing down a chilly flow from between the North-West, North and North-East.

Edited October 29, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine

[Frosty.]

Well the GEFS 12z is very interesting, there's support for a cold blast (N'ly / NE'ly) from around Nov 8th which could last rather longer than the usual 24 hour snap and towards mid Nov there is support for scandi heights (anticyclone) which gives the uk a shout regarding a possible Easterly...so, November could bring an early taste of winter but there's plenty of rain and wind to get through before that possible change..great model watching to be sure!!

Edited October 29, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

11 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

There's certainly signs of winter on the 0z output ..have a good day on the farm Ed  

Well, I say, old chap -- today was a total spiffer, thank you: sunshine all the way!

So, onto today's 12Zs and what they suggest? Not a lot, really?

   

And now,  the GEFS ensembles:

   

   

Well, I suppose I could witter-on about 'if this' or 'if that'...But, what's the point? The model says what the model says...?

[feb1991blizzard]

Tragic ECM run.

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Tragic ECM run.

Is it looks similar to the 00z!!lows diving south eastwards aswell!!pretty cool!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, shaky said:

Is it looks similar to the 00z!!lows diving south eastwards aswell!!pretty cool!!

They are just barrelling through though, yes on a southerly track but no sign of proper blocking.

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They are just barrelling through though, yes on a southerly track but no sign of proper blocking.

Yeh and pretty darn wet aswell!!flooding gona be a huge issue!!i reckon if this was a month or 2 later snow would be a real issue widely!!

[booferking]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They are just barrelling through though, yes on a southerly track but no sign of proper blocking.

Yea not the best ecm the night hopefully it's on the warm side of the set tonight.

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yeh and pretty darn wet aswell!!flooding gona be a huge issue!!i reckon if this was a month or 2 later snow would be a real issue widely!!

Not sure about that - i like my troughs to be negatively tilted sliders to produce battleground snow setups, of course you can have winter storms with deep lows but pretty rare.