Model Output Discussion - early October

[Mike Poole]

Yep, northerly in the end from GFS:

From a longer term point of view, messing up the trop vortex always good for cold prospects as the high north of the arctic shows, sorry that's nonsense, SOUTH of the arctic but on the other side!!

Edited October 28, 2019 by Mike Poole

[booferking]

First Snow showers of the winter to reasonably low ground Scotland Ireland North England .

[feb1991blizzard]

Quite a few Easterlies among the GEFS 12z, over half probably although i haven't counted, only a handful threaten very cold air though to be fair.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Some absolute crackers amongst the 12z ensembles this evening... Only got half way through, yet there were still several at that stage! Just the other week we had them popping up all over the place, the last few days, have seen them recede somewhat, but now it appears... They are once again on the increase.... Hope this is a positive sign as we move into November. 

[Mapantz]

Here's day's 4, 6 and 7 of the NetWx medium range rain accumulations;

   

Whilst it won't actually pan out like that, it is pointing to an increased risk of more flood warnings appearing as we head in to November.

[Ali1977]

If only it were Jan, this would be a cracker. Still, it’s a pretty cold chart for early Nov and there would be plenty of snow Showers on northern high ground

[swfc]

EC 12z not to bad or am I missing something??

[Methuselah]

So, today's GFS 12Z arrives at this (never to materialise) situation:

   

And the GEFS ensembles even suggest the possibility of a short burst of -7C uppers, on the way:

   

       

So, as ever, while the building-blocks continue to align, more runs are needed...?

[MR EXTREMES]

ecm is wobbling with the other models i suspect there's spanners flying everywhere and that's why the models are a bit erratic vortex driven early days promising signs.

depressions are definitely diving se direction and the jet is disrupted.

in 09/10 it was a common feature.

my only fear is that 2014 started similar.

or perhaps something like an icelandic block.

now that would be interesting considering the cold air running down into eastern europe including scandinavia.

[Zak M]

I came back from Mallorca a couple of days ago. Seeing charts like this all of a sudden reminds me of how quickly the weather can change 

I didn't see any charts like this last week!

[knocker]

38 minutes ago, swfc said:

EC 12z not to bad or am I missing something??

Am I looking at a different output again? At T72 the ecm is much like the fax

but I sure as hell hope Exeter doesn't agree with the subsequent evolution

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

ECM mean is rather bullish about deep low pressure anchored over us by the weekend. It won't feel particularly warm either... Perhaps as the low pulls away SE, we could start to pull some colder Conditions down from the NW/N... all along way off though... But tonight's special prize is.... Wind and plenty of rain. 

The ens show the op was a little below the pack regarding temperature, the mean does show a slight cooling though moving forward. 

Edited October 28, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

Fingers crossed, indeed everything crossed that we see many more charts like these in the days, weeks & months ahead..this forum will be a great place to be if that happens!!!!!.❄..having said that, it's a great place to be anyway!!

 

Edited October 28, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Man With Beard]

Nasty little low on the ECM op tonight for Sunday, with rain for most and storm force winds on the south coast (gusts possibly 80mph). Some support from the ECM ensembles and potentially the UKMO too. 

[SMU]

Good to see things ticking along nicely WRT pressure rising to the North & the atlantic systems being ushered on a more southerly track-

Some may remember me commenting 2 days ago on the GFS being to far NE with its angle

Well now look V the 2 charts from the other day

Original prognosis at 84 was all the enery moving NE

Now the same timestamp this eve on the 18z

Note the swift change to the jet alligning SE

This will stop the low ploughing NE through the UK which would have blocked the small ridge of high pressure moving NW towards Iceland-

Now this ridge looks like developing so the return to colder runs has returned

At this point in the year im glad the main thrust of cold is still 8-10 days away as for us down south thats really the earliest window we could really hope for snow anyway....

First Air frost here last night @ -0.5c

 

Cheers

[Allseasons-Si]

That's a nice looking chart at day ten,a runner low could give a dumping of snow somewhere,all subject to change but i will post what it shows.

P.S just had to scrape the windscreen at work ,brrr...

 

Edited October 28, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

There's that arctic rabbit showing in the models again,i know what happened the other year when that was showing in the models,cannot remember what year though.

 

[Jordan S]

Hi Zak hope you had a good time!  Pretty wet for Wednesday and Wednesday night for Western areas on Thursday before that front fizzles out..

The weekend if this comes off really will be problematic with very wet conditions windy too although doesn't look too concerning wind wise atm although needs close watching.. upper air temperatures not overly cold during the weekend but certainly will feel chilly on the surface in the wind and heavy rain.

10 day rainfall accumulations from the gfs even wetter update for most parts of England and Wales not as wet further north. 

Edited October 28, 2019 by jordan smith

[Jordan S]

Even through tonight and tomorrow the far southwest is in for very wet conditions as that front which actually I believe at one point was part of the frontal system that gave the deluge last Friday and Saturday tries to push in but high pressure stopping it getting too far for now resulting in sizeable accumulations. Ecm for example.. 

[feb1991blizzard]

No cheer from the EC46, 

EDIT : although this model has been going through its worst period since i started following it about 8 years ago.

Edited October 29, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[That ECM]

Would like to see more output reflecting this moving forward.

[Methuselah]

Still looking at some kind of -NAO pattern, according to today's GEFS 00Zs, with the GFS Operational ending on an encouraging note...?

     

       

        

In the meantime, things still look a tad wet.

 

Edited October 29, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

There's certainly signs of winter on the 0z output ..have a good day on the farm Ed  

Edited October 29, 2019 by JON SNOW

[carinthian]

Morning all, both UKMO and ECM this morning showing a pronounced elongated low pressure system at 144t with the main axis across the British Isles. So based of these charts lots of rain bands or showers almost anywhere with-in this set up. Temps probably around seasonal . ECM chart for day 10 shows colder Easterly airmass advection into Northern Scotland which would be produce snowfall, especially at elevation.

C

[Sky Full]

Before we can look forward to the fun and games of December and January, it seems that we have to endure some more pretty unsettled Atlantic driven weather in the immediate future...

Here are four takes on the outlook for the 4th November as seen by the models this morning:

UKMO:                                                         ECM

    

GFS                                                              GEM

    

They don't all agree on the exact detail (when do they ever?) but the consensus is that we can look forward to a substantial depression bringing wet and windy conditions again.  Not my idea of an Indian Summer unless that equates to the monsoon season