Model Output Discussion - early October

[mb018538]

Damned climate of ours! Whatever the pressure patterns are around the globe it just ends up we get stuck with low pressure pretty much every time.



Another 4-6 inches of rain possible in the next 10 days in areas that really don't need it. Nowhere except the very far north of Scotland looks to be spared from the rain. Flooding woes to continue and/or worsen.

[knocker]

The ext mean EPS anomaly little different to last evening so no further waffle required from me

[Frosty.]

'Ello 'Ello 'Ello..what's goin' on 'ere then?, an early taste of winter!!!!!❄

 

Edited October 28, 2019 by JON SNOW

[jules216]

8 hours ago, s4lancia said:

Two things to watch for me over the coming weeks, an increasingly southerly tracking jet and very little appetite for a sustained euro high. We may well have to endure a (further) period of VERY wet conditions but I think thereafter things could get interesting.

With a fierce vortex spinning up in the strat but likely to struggle to propagate downwards with ease and couple with the TPV, I can see future major disturbances afoot. Strong warmings and wave activity.

This is shaping up to be fascinating start to the season...

I wouldn't say there is no appetite for Euro high as there will be one present soon, but will be located a tad further east then a classic one. Just enough to cut of all the supply of colder air from east or north east Europe. What was few days ago forecast to be a reasonable cold shot in central Europe has turned in to a 2 day event and after we are back to well above average temperatures. All this occurring while NAO has been in negative phase. Actually NAO has been negative since May yet Europe has had mostly above average temperatures. This cut of low around UK/IE is just about as bad as a zonal westerly. Just as well its only autumn. 

[Man With Beard]

Clusters from last night - D10 purples over the UK - the height of "unsettled" - expect lots of rain and possibly wind too:

Further out, some tasty clusters for coldies, esp clusters 2 and 3, with positive anomalies NE and negative anomalies SE, which is always a good recipe for cold. However, the EC ensembles made a bit of a dog's dinner of northern blocking for the coming 6-10 day period, so personally I will withhold judgement for now, as the ECM has had a tendency to get this wrong during some recent winters, and besides, the subtle variation to clusters 1 and 5 would possibly keep cold out of reach for the UK (at very least, they would dry things out too), and cluster 2 looks like maintaining the status quo of soggy westerlies.

[Methuselah]

Not much sign of a +NAO setting-in yet, according to the GFS 00Z...?

   

Edited October 28, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Iceaxecrampon]

00z has Sat to Mon a real Washing Machine - nothing too strong in the way of gusts though.

A stubborn all weekender LP 

Hint of Scandi cold further in the run? last weeks modelled snow was way off the mark although Coniston got it's first dusting.

06z coming out now

[Duane S.]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

I wouldn't say there is no appetite for Euro high as there will be one present soon, but will be located a tad further east then a classic one. Just enough to cut of all the supply of colder air from east or north east Europe. What was few days ago forecast to be a reasonable cold shot in central Europe has turned in to a 2 day event and after we are back to well above average temperatures. All this occurring while NAO has been in negative phase. Actually NAO has been negative since May yet Europe has had mostly above average temperatures. This cut of low around UK/IE is just about as bad as a zonal westerly. Just as well its only autumn. 

As you say though, not really a Euro high in its classic sense, and nothing that (currently at least) looks likely to sustain for weeks on end.

I agree in terms of 'weather on the ground. a cut off low is just as bad as full on W-E zonal, but a repeating strong diving jet looks a strong possibility to my eyes as we go through November.

[MattStoke]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Damned climate of ours! Whatever the pressure patterns are around the globe it just ends up we get stuck with low pressure pretty much every time.



Another 4-6 inches of rain possible in the next 10 days in areas that really don't need it. Nowhere except the very far north of Scotland looks to be spared from the rain. Flooding woes to continue and/or worsen.

Even worse on the 6z.

80 mm up to 7th of November for me. Added to the 2 inches we had this weekend, and there will be a lot more flooding.

Edited October 28, 2019 by MattStoke

[ITSY]

The Control aligns pretty perfectly at this point. Will be interesting to see where it sits within the ensembles, quite a few playing around with this following the ECM 00z

Edit, ensembles are very interesting! Many play around with similar pressure rises and drops on the northern and western perimeter of the Atlantic

 

Edited October 28, 2019 by ITSY

[Frosty.]

According to the Gfs 6z operational most of this week looks drier and brighter with generally lighter winds under the influence of high pressure but with some chilly nights bringing a risk of slight frosts as well as some mist / fog patches. From Friday it gradually becomes much more unsettled but also milder, especially noticeable overnight with the frost risk disappearing due to the increased cloud, wind and at times, rain. It turns into a very unsettled outlook with troughs merging with troughs over and near the uk but towards the end of the run it becomes more settled / blocked with a large scandi anticyclone and generally SE'ly winds across the uk, but those winds look fairly brisk / strong..too much wind for any frost / fog problems and probably that bit more unsettled across the far southwest / west.

Edited October 28, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

Still sort-of blocked at T+384 -- though, of course, the details are irrelevant at such a range...And, when and where will the PV ramp up?

   

GEFS 06Z ensembles don't look to be exceptionally scattered, but the Operational and Control runs do end-up falling from opposite sides of the trolley...Or the water ski!

   

   

Och well...More runs needed!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hello hello... As the 6z control run been sniffing to much Monday morning coffee.... Or is it simply on to something!!! Either way.... Me likes. 

Edited October 28, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hello hello... As the 6z operational been sniffing to much Monday morning coffee.... Or is it simply on to something!!! Either way.... Me likes. 

Hi matt, you mean the 6z control run ..looks great.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Cheers Karl... Its a peach, I've just corrected the post mate... Ta..

[Allseasons-Si]

No mention of the ecm this morning!

i know it's at day ten but we would be in a good position from there if that was to materialize,lows diving SE,height's to the north,cold pool heading SW into Scandinavia,the height anomaly isn't too bad either

do i suspect a slight -ve AO on those NH charts?

the gfs 06z 10hpa animation from 192-384

ok,not a major warming but the gfs keeps on toying with some warming.

off to work now so will post later,have a good day everyone

P.S the control run was a peach but falling off the cliff from the other ens suit.

 

 

 

[Jordan S]

As a lot of you have pointed out the GFS keeps the UK in a very unsettled wet theme with low pressure milling around the UK like a lost soul this low in particular would be very troublesome for flooding problems if it comes off as it currently shows with bands of heavy rain continually pushing through.

Ecm thinking along similar lines with the overall stubborn synoptics but interesting height rises to the north being shown later in the run very interesting indeed. 

Edited October 28, 2019 by jordan smith

[knocker]

39 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

No mention of the ecm this morning!

i

Strange as I can count at least four posts that do albeit one was concerned with last evening

Edited October 28, 2019 by knocker

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Strange as I can count at least three posts that do

What yea think knocks plenty of undercutting/Underpinning on ECM..

Edited October 28, 2019 by booferking

[knocker]

Estimating cloud heights can be tricky enough at the best of times but when you have a slate frey amorphous layer even more so. But with the benefit of the sounding I would confidently say As at about 7,000 ft

[Duane S.]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

No mention of the ecm this morning!

i know it's at day ten but we would be in a good position from there if that was to materialize,lows diving SE,height's to the north,cold pool heading SW into Scandinavia,the height anomaly isn't too bad either

do i suspect a slight -ve AO on those NH charts?

the gfs 06z 10hpa animation from 192-384

ok,not a major warming but the gfs keeps on toying with some warming.

off to work now so will post later,have a good day everyone

P.S the control run was a peach but falling off the cliff from the other ens suit.

 

 

 

Ref warming, it has been showing over the past few days or so.

Often these come to nothing of course, or... it could be just the start of something more significant later on?

 

[Jordan S]

ICON really making a lot of the frontal system coming in on Wednesday having it developing a centre of circulation which effectively slows it right down over central England giving a real soaking for Wednesday night into Thursday.. 

but most other models show this as a weakening band of rain pushing west to east Arpege sends it to the south of the UK leaving Wednesday afternoon and night mostly dry for England and Wales so a lot of details to fine out as is usually the case at this range..

Friday's frontal system carries  uncertainty still at this range on timings obviously. 

Icon.. 

Some very chilly nights to come in the next few days Thursday night being the coldest more widely for central and Eastern areas if the arpege is right.. Before rain moves in later for Friday introducing milder air.. Although the GFS moving the rain in quicker preventing a cold night but this is all a few days away.. Anyway we shall see. 

Arpege.. 

GFS.. 

Edited October 28, 2019 by jordan smith

[Mike Poole]

Double portion on the UKMO at T144:

Horrible!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Double portion on the UKMO at T144:

Horrible!

Rhythm is a dancer!

[booferking]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Rhythm is a dancer!

Northerly a few days later, gfs getting to the interesting point of the run now lets see what it throws out.