Model Output Discussion - early October

[Mike Poole]

Few things, first relating to GFS 12z, here's cumulative rainfall to T240:

Some soggy areas of Wales and Cornwall with that run.  

I was interested in the thumbnails for the GEFS suite T300:

Almost 21 different ways the trop vortex can look disorganised.  And up top, the strat vortex gathers it's forces for the battle that we all know is coming:

T0:

T240:

Last 3 charts courtesy stratobserve.com, if you follow the yellow then orangey dots the middle of the strat vortex  lower down remains east of the GMT 0 line, this is where we want it to stay from a coldies perspective.

As I say, a battle is brewing here, will the strat imprint on the trop pattern and we suffer endless wind and rain, or do we have a zombie cold dragon on our side stolen from the stratosphere to keep its forces at bay?  We will see...

My view is that I honestly don't know, and also we cannot know (though some profess to...) there is too much uncertainty.  As well as wanting some snow, I also want to gain understanding, so whichever way the battle goes it will be interesting to watch over the next few months.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

One thing for sure is the agreement from GFS, UKMO and GEM to bring a deep low pressure in towards the end of next week... I'm just hoping we get a window of opportunity for the firework displays... Rest assured I can at least guarantee you some flash bangs that night!! Still a fair few ensembles from the 12z showing the possibility of some cold shots... Not as many as previous runs a few days ago.... But hey hoo... No doubt they will be back. 

[swfc]

EC at 168 hours looked to have joined ukmo imo

[booferking]

Only hope for anything cold is those lows to dive deep into Europe height rises behind pulling in a backdoor Northerly or North-Easterly ..

Gem sums up my thoughts..

Edited October 27, 2019 by booferking

[Mike Poole]

Try lighting fireworks after that, T192 ECM:

[swfc]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Try lighting fireworks after that, T192 ECM:

It gets worse Mike luckily it not Halloween,A+E would be over run!!!

Edited October 27, 2019 by swfc

[Jordan S]

ECM accumulated rainfall for the next 10 days yes very wet particularly for England, Wales and Ireland.. 

GFS ensembles still very unsettled after Wednesday.

 

Edited October 27, 2019 by jordan smith

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

It gets worse Mike

Like a cartwheel firework..

[Bristawl Si]

Looks like a rainfest to my eyes. A dismal November approaching. Suspect nowt will change til after Xmas; maybe a 78/79 winter will emerge from a sodden Autumn and December.

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM at day 9 has a good hemispheric trop profile for future strat disturbances...

Perhaps some flooding to endure for a lot of the UK first though...

[knocker]

The ecm ias not dissimilar to the gfs in the lead up to the weekend and the key by midday Thursday is the upper low exiting eastern Canada which tracks east over the next 48 hours to be west of Ireland by midday Saturday.

All of this results in quite a deep surface low with associated fronts traversing the country Saturday/Sunday

But another trough has tracked the same to merge with the one over the UK resulting in a pretty wet and windy couple of days to follow

All subject to later correction of course

 

[feb1991blizzard]

25 minutes ago, booferking said:

Only hope for anything cold is those lows to dive deep into Europe height rises behind pulling in a backdoor Northerly or North-Easterly ..

Gem sums up my thoughts..

ECM not a million miles off.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM not a million miles off.

Yea taking a good shape at it..

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

It gets worse Mike

Sure does T216:

Like I said earlier, NH toilet!

But, longer term, this mutant animal (whatever it resembles, I can't decide) is as messed up trop vortex as any other progged by the models, so we grin and bear it (if it happens) and approach November with a sense of anticipation.  Something is coming, we  just don't know what yet...

(very profound, not!)

But what I mean is, the uncertainty about this coming winter is the main thing, no?  Solar minimum, yes tick that, ENSO signal vague, QBO maybe heading favourable later, SST maybe iffy (slightly) in Pacific, maybe favourable (slightly) in Atlantic but forecast to worsen, seasonal model output showing higher probability of zonal...

Probability of a decent winter, if you define that as a couple of decent periods of snowy weather including the south?  Actually I think it is still quite high.  Either early, or post SSW, we will see...

[johnholmes]

18 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Looks like a rainfest to my eyes. A dismal November approaching. Suspect nowt will change til after Xmas; maybe a 78/79 winter will emerge from a sodden Autumn and December.

Here we go again for the winter joy ride. I wish I could feel confident enough to post in here for what the weather will do in the next 7 weeks!

 

This is nothing personal Bb there are a fair number on here as autumn is just over half way done suggesting they too can predict weeks in advance.

Sorry folks I'm getting too old for this annual roller coaster, just ignore the old fool.

Edited October 27, 2019 by johnholmes

[Methuselah]

It appears that the ensembles might be losing some of their recent scatter/uncertainty; the GEFS 12Z ensembles do look more tightly bunched than they have done, of late.

   

   

Rain and wind look like being the 'form horses'?

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Sure does T216:

Like I said earlier, NH toilet!

But, longer term, this mutant animal (whatever it resembles, I can't decide) is as messed up trop vortex as any other progged by the models, so we grin and bear it (if it happens) and approach November with a sense of anticipation.  Something is coming, we  just don't know what yet...

(very profound, not!)

But what I mean is, the uncertainty about this coming winter is the main thing, no?  Solar minimum, yes tick that, ENSO signal vague, QBO maybe heading favourable later, SST maybe iffy (slightly) in Pacific, maybe favourable (slightly) in Atlantic but forecast to worsen, seasonal model output showing higher probability of zonal...

Probability of a decent winter, if you define that as a couple of decent periods of snowy weather including the south?  Actually I think it is still quite high.  Either early, or post SSW, we will see...

Good points there.Yes think ENSO is heading neutral and the QBO is heading towards an easterly phase.Interesting all the same

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Sorry folks I'm getting too old for this annual roller coaster, just ignore the old fool.

That shouldn't be a problem John as they already ignore the other old fool

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

That shouldn't be a problem John as they already ignore the other old fool

You're just irked because Sydney's in Australia!

[knocker]

Just to repeat what Nick said earlier

The intensification of now Hurricane Pablo continues. Despite moving over 15-20C SSTs, cloud tops continue to cool & the eye has cleared out further. In the modern satellite era, it is unprecedented to have a hurricane this far north & east in the NATL basin (42.8N/18.3W).

H/t Philippe Papin

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Just to repeat what Nick said earlier

The intensification of now Hurricane Pablo continues. Despite moving over 15-20C SSTs, cloud tops continue to cool & the eye has cleared out further. In the modern satellite era, it is unprecedented to have a hurricane this far north & east in the NATL basin (42.8N/18.3W).

H/t Philippe Papin

One suspects as global warming continues apace and ssts continue to rise, that hurricanes in more northerly latitudes won’t be in isolation.

[damianslaw]

In the very near-timeframe, a continued respite from the rain many have endured for weeks now, 2-3 days of decent dry chilly autumnal weather with frost and sunshine, before we see rain return from Wednesday onwards, northern and eastern areas should hold on to a mostly dry day, by Halloween rain for all. November starting off on an unsettled note - all very normal and typical, temps around average.. 

[mb018538]

9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

In the very near-timeframe, a continued respite from the rain many have endured for weeks now, 2-3 days of decent dry chilly autumnal weather with frost and sunshine, before we see rain return from Wednesday onwards, northern and eastern areas should hold on to a mostly dry day, by Halloween rain for all. November starting off on an unsettled note - all very normal and typical, temps around average.. 

I was going to post the exact same thing! The only plus point now is we have 3 days to dry out from the recent deluge before it returns again, with further flooding rain. Can we stop obsessing with the phantom undercut now? It’s getting steamrollered. Let the dead horse lie. 

[Mike Poole]

Be afraid, be very afraid, the ECM mean lands us right in it, T240:

985 mb at 10 days out on a mean chart?   Wellies time.  Spread isn't any help, UK under area of least uncertainty...

At least the trop vortex looks messed up (looking to the longer term)...

Edited October 27, 2019 by Mike Poole

[knocker]

The ext mean anomalies this evening are all singing from the same hymn sheet

A combination of a north east Pacific ridge/north Canadian vortex with the trough from the latter orientated south of the extension of the European ridge into eastern Greenland. Ergo a strong westerly upper flow exiting the north eastern seaboard across the Atlantic but abating and backing a tad in the vicinity of the UK, courtesy of the aforementioned European ridge, Thus remaining unsettled with temps around average but tricky detail for the det runs to sort.  I mean it even raises the possibility of a trigger shortwave undercutting the undercut. A truly nightmare scenario

 

 

Edited October 27, 2019 by knocker