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Model Output Discussion - early October


Paul
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33 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I will agree with you there - it’s not classic zonality as we know it, but the subtropical high is retracted and lower heights dominate to the north. It’s zonal enough, fairly typical for autumn.

With these anomalies at day 6 ( if verified ) this by default cannot be fairly typical.

54864ABE-1F40-4509-AACF-803D56AD5B60.thumb.png.787895075a0cad2990f87a76dbf2f5e0.png

If only the NAVGEM was a better model

12z 162

 

3B071C4A-BC47-4862-8A06-20E375F42232.jpeg

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I tend to agree with those who say the forecast pattern is atypical. But will it stay atypical for long enough to be of any use? Who knows?:unsure2:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But, as the GEFS 12Z ensembles show, the GFS Operational doesn't look to be too out of kilter...? Not that that necessarily means much, though!:oldgrin: 

prmslLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

Anywho, by the time winter actually gets here, we might have a better idea!

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 168 blocking high to the North.

Im still curious how we think thats typical

October Long term mean would indicate no blocking to the North of the UK

19BD7084-2608-42F1-8720-EE14C68044F2.thumb.png.6f9b97bdf44fcc0a92450485f8702b7c.png

ECM not far off what NAVGEM is showing at the same time. Persistence of the block to the north and falling heights to the SE. 

c

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Ecm brings in Scandinavia high but in two days it pushes it away.Might as well not bother in the first place then!

 

This model always seems progressive whatever it shows in the latter frames.Waste of time if you ask me.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

9CBF4297-AFC7-42E9-93F6-DF2EC612389E.jpeg

I'm a bit suspicious about that plot, if you notice it changes from observation (blue) to GFS (red) early in October rather than now, so maybe some data issues?  Stratobserve.com has this

image.thumb.jpg.d685b07cbc6c82d5fd8bd93b2130097b.jpg

Sure, it is intensifying but no sign yet it is taking the trop vortex with it, strat vortex T240 (GFS)

image.thumb.jpg.0a466e78a106de40e2a86028fc67660c.jpg

Ellipses represent shape of vortex yellow at top, orange at bottom.  GFS 12z (note different run, the strat chart is 0z) T240:

image.thumb.jpg.1758b328b6c7798fda73e0bf1d13115d.jpg

They don't look that connected to me, and while that remains the case I'm not that bothered how fast the strat vortex spins at this stage.

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean is indicating a generally mobile / atlantic driven pattern with temperatures around average or slightly below, especially further north but for the south it could be somewhat milder at times...it's of no concern to me since winter is still several weeks away and it doesn't preclude some wintry interest in november, from either cold shots or quieter intervals with overnight frosts, the mean I've described is just the broad brush strokes.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I will agree with you there - it’s not classic zonality as we know it, but the subtropical high is retracted and lower heights dominate to the north. It’s zonal enough, fairly typical for autumn.

This isn't full steam zonal. The arrival of the zonal express isn't yet a done deal.

ECH1-240 (8).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
37 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

This isn't full steam zonal. The arrival of the zonal express isn't yet a done deal.

ECH1-240 (8).gif

No it isn't, I agree.  And I don't think full steam zonal is very likely at all until, and indeed if, there is a downwelling from the stratosphere of the pattern beginning to take shape up there.  

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Ensembles show below average upper air temperatures until the 1st of November like clock work.. October neatly ending a little colder than average.

Dry too for a few days but a sudden increase in precipitation possible after Thursday 31st. 

1541071482_ens_image(12).thumb.png.bb063e52feb3ec2247e3530c40c10c1c.png

Gfs showing quite cool zonality across the UK in the extended range with low pressure systems going across the heart of the UK and then taking them on more of a southerly track towards france diving Southeast into Central Europe.. What this would guarantee if this came off would be a very wet start to November particularly so for the south and west of the UK. :oldgood:

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_228.thumb.jpg.f8244d83d2263ca118e73356a74d2b25.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_276.thumb.jpg.b73170dca4462eebc95e469c1f02d96d.jpg

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

A healthy looking 10 day mean from ecm for those of a cold persuasion. 

Screenshot_20191026-214557.png

As nice as these charts are to view, I fear we will be looking at somewhat different charts in two months time.......or even one month.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, Don said:

As nice as these charts are to view, I fear we will be looking at somewhat different looking charts in two months time.......

The negative tilting trough is always a promising sign for developments down the line imo. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

The negative tilting trough is always a promising sign for developments down the line imo. 

Well, here's hoping!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
10 minutes ago, Don said:

As nice as these charts are to view, I fear we will be looking at somewhat different charts in two months time.......or even one month.

Don... There is no point in stressing over what charts may look like 6 weeks down the line... Not if you cherish your blood pressure mate! Just to bring the ECM mean up, if anything it drops of towards the end... If anything the op was on the colder side to start, but warmed up towards the end! The models and ens are all over the place currently.... Makes you think what could happen if we experience a major SSW further down the line..... Get your valium at the ready for this winter folks..... Its gonna be a bumpy ride. 

graphe_ens3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Don... There is no point in stressing over what charts may look like 6 weeks down the line... Not if you cherish your blood pressure mate! Just to bring the ECM mean up, if anything it drops of towards the end... If anything the op was on the colder side to start, but warmed up towards the end! The models and ens are all over the place currently.... Makes you think what could happen if we experience a major SSW further down the line..... Get your valium at the ready for this winter folks..... Its gonna be a bumpy ride. 

Oh, don't worry, I'm not stressing and what will be will be.  However, keeping expectations low increases the chances of some nice surprises, unlike last year which overall proved to be a let down!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
39 minutes ago, Don said:

As nice as these charts are to view, I fear we will be looking at somewhat different charts in two months time.......or even one month.

Never worry about the feature fi worry about the now we taste of winter the day  

Next week the jet diving South with solar min approaching I'll take that.

20191026_145921.jpg

20191026_145933.jpg

20191026_145926.jpg

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

If you're just posting to express concerns or moan about the charts, then head over to the moans/banter/chat thread, please?!

Thanks. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
48 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning...

UKMO looks pretty NAVGEM esque this morning. Pretty solid undercut.

 

Not bad either.

image.thumb.png.2523d6489435785a3a0f0fd283b2f644.png

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