Model Output Discussion - early October

[feb1991blizzard]

And now a Northerly as well, -8c into Scotland.

 

Significant accumulations possible for Inverness.

The whole of the North of Scotland white with drifting possible in strong N'ly winds.

Edited October 25, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

Then a band of persistent snow moving steadily across the North, all in all a great start to the day.

[shaky]

42 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Then a band of persistent snow moving steadily across the North, all in all a great start to the day.

Hows the gfs looking feb?still having none of the ecms pesky shortwave at 120 hours or has it given in lol!!

[SLEETY]

You know the winter season has arrived,when their are huge differences between ECM and GFS computer models.

One has us in cold temps till the end of its run,and the other has us in very much milder weather.

But the cold weather remains over Northern Europe.

Edited October 25, 2019 by SLEETY

[shaky]

Yeh ecm gets caught in 2 minds!!yesterday it ejected that shortwave low cleanly today it absorbs into the main low in the atlantic but not enough and a bit is still left hanging about further east lol which then gives us the horrendous fi!!!looks like its moved toward gfs though at 144 hours!!!ukmo moves towards gfs at 120 hours to only then eject that low east into the uk!!bit more cleaner than ecm i must say!!

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yeh ecm gets caught in 2 minds!!yesterday it ejected that shortwave low cleanly today it absorbs into the main low in the atlantic but not enough and a bit is still left hanging about further east lol which then gives us the horrendous fi!!!looks like its moved toward gfs though at 144 hours!!!ukmo moves towards gfs at 120 hours to only then eject that low east into the uk!!bit more cleaner than ecm i must say!!

Yea gfs best of the bunch something will give soon.

Edited October 25, 2019 by booferking

[Seasonality]

GFS has been pretty much rock solid in going for a shift to colder conditions in my part of Europe, the op has really stuck to its guns for the most part. My cautious prediction is for an early season win for the American model, but still all to play for and no guarantee who'll be top of the table in a couple of months time.

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

GFS has been pretty much rock solid in going for a shift to colder conditions in my part of Europe, the op has really stuck to its guns for the most part. My cautious prediction is for an early season win for the American model, but still all to play for and no guarantee who'll be top of the table in a couple of months time.

I dont know man!!ecm and ukmo have looked constantly yuk for any cold weather in the last 36 hours where as gfs has been solid!!got a horrible feeling gfs is gona climb down in the next few runs!!i hope it doesnt by the way!!

[Beanz]

14 minutes ago, shaky said:

I dont know man!!ecm and ukmo have looked constantly yuk for any cold weather in the last 36 hours where as gfs has been solid!!got a horrible feeling gfs is gona climb down in the next few runs!!i hope it doesnt by the way!!

That would be where my money goes too unfortunately.  It’s got history 

[Seasonality]

29 minutes ago, Beanz said:

That would be where my money goes too unfortunately.  It’s got history 

But its the new and upgraded version, the first winter season with the FV3 upgrade fully in place. 

NOAA upgrades the U.S. global weather forecast model | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

WWW.NOAA.GOV

---

Improved model will boost weather forecasts across the U.S.

 

Edited October 25, 2019 by Seasonality

[Methuselah]

A nice 'blocky'-looking pattern (plenty of cold away to our N and NE) at T+366...? If it becomes a recurrent pattern, so much the better for long-term winter prospects. Just so long as a cold November doesn't evolve like 1988 did!

   

And the GEFS 00Z ensembles are nae bad, either!

   

   

Though the GFS Operational is, it has to be said, rather 'outlierish' at times?

[stratty]

22 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

But its the new and upgraded version, the first winter season with the FV3 upgrade fully in place. 

NOAA upgrades the U.S. global weather forecast model | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

WWW.NOAA.GOV

---

Improved model will boost weather forecasts across the U.S.

 

"you can't polish a terd"

[feb1991blizzard]

3 hours ago, shaky said:

Hows the gfs looking feb?still having none of the ecms pesky shortwave at 120 hours or has it given in lol!!

GFS still the best of the runs for making the least of any spoilers.

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS still the best of the runs for making the least of any spoilers.

Was the ecm 46 any good?

[feb1991blizzard]

13 minutes ago, shaky said:

Was the ecm 46 any good?

High anomalies to the North but the low anomalies to the West is also a pretty broad brush theme, so reasonable looking but probably would not look good just on temps alone, in other words things just not quite in the right place to deliver proper cold, also, it has to be said the high anomalies are just that and not strong enough to indicate semi-permanent blocking features but then you wouldn't expect that in W3 or4, in other words could be a lot worse but not perfect.

 

EDIT : could indicate battlegrounds but would the surface temps be cold enough at that time of year?

Edited October 25, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

High anomalies to the North but the low anomalies to the West is also a pretty broad brush theme, so reasonable looking but probably would not look good just on temps alone, in other words things just not quite in the right place to deliver proper cold, also, it has to be said the high anomalies are just that and not strong enough to indicate semi-permanent blocking features but then you wouldn't expect that in W3 or4, in other words could be a lot worse but not perfect.

 

EDIT : could indicate battlegrounds but would the surface temps be cold enough at that time of year?

That looks pretty juicy to me!!could be a heck of a lot worse!!south east to east winds but like you say will it be cold enough?

[knocker]

I'm sorry but where do get south east to east winds from?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, shaky said:

That looks pretty juicy to me!!could be a heck of a lot worse!!south east to east winds but like you say will it be cold enough?

As i said, you would take it at this time of the year - that is moderate ensemble mean high anoms Greenland into Eastern Europe on a diagonal and low anoms to SW on a diagonal, the perfect chart would be strong anoms from Greenland to Norway / Sweden and deep low anoms centred between France / Austria / Italy - somewhere around there anyway.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm sorry but where do get south east to east winds from?

It does't it shows Westerly winds but remember its an ensemble mean, if you payed no attention to the anomalies at all then what use would the model be in W4?, i have rarely if ever seen it show anything other than winds from a Westerly quadrant in winter in week 4.

EDIT : upper Westerlies, not checked the surface pressure charts.

Edited October 25, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[shaky]

Latest icon goes with the gfs and gets rid off the shortwave low or at the very least is not as deep!!

[Skullzrulerz]

2 hours ago, Seasonality said:

GFS has been pretty much rock solid in going for a shift to colder conditions in my part of Europe, the op has really stuck to its guns for the most part. My cautious prediction is for an early season win for the American model, but still all to play for and no guarantee who'll be top of the table in a couple of months time.

Absolutely true but don't forget the ECM/ukmo has also stuck to there guns with more or less mild and unsettled 

I do think we need to keep our hopes somewhat low due to fact that most of these charts are over a week out at best and not to mention it will change every time till the somewhat reliable timeframe 

Personnely I would rather see the ECM showing the cold charts not the gfs as last year it just didn't deliver

[knocker]

17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It does't it shows Westerly winds but remember its an ensemble mean, if you payed no attention to the anomalies at all then what use would the model be in W4?, i have rarely if ever seen it show anything other than winds from a Westerly quadrant in winter in week 4.

EDIT : upper Westerlies, not checked the surface pressure charts.

I'm well aware that it is an ensemble mean  but that doesn't mean you can ignore the isohypes depicting upper wind direction and ridges/troughs. Of coarse well into the future these will become suppressed and revert to climatology but equally, just my opinion of coarse, it is far more dangerous and misleading to read far too much into somewhat feint anomalies regarding a possible surface analysis. For what it's worth as far as I can see the latest update is indicating just below average temps until the beginning of December when they rise above with most of the precipitation in the NW/W as one would expect

And as I said last night people are on dangerous ground if they try to elucidate detail from these charts

Edited October 25, 2019 by knocker

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm well aware that it is an ensemble mean  but that doesn't mean you can ignore the isohypes depicting upper wind direction and ridges.troughs. Of coarse well into the future these will become suppressed and revert to climatology but equally, just my opinion of coarse, it is far more dangerous and misleading to read far too much into somewhat feint anomalies regarding a possible surface analysis. For what it's worth as far as I can see the latest update is indicating just below average temps until the beginning of December when they rise above with most of the precipitation in the NW/W as one would expect

I actually agree with the last bit - the forecast, but could i ask you what you would expect to be seeing now on that chart if W4 turned out to be well below average temps with Easterly winds, assuming the model was doing its job?

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I actually agree with the last bit - the forecast, but could i ask you what you would expect to be seeing now on that chart if W4 turned out to be well below average temps with Easterly winds, assuming the model was doing its job?

Impossible to answer but one would at least expect a NH 500mb analysis that would accommodate this possibility but then again this should also be part of the evolution prior to this,

But it is important to keep reminding oneself of the limitations of this and other similar models which again just emphasizes that chasing detail is a definite no no

[shaky]

Aaaand gfs  moves towards ecm at 120 hours in regards to that shortwave!!ecm is king simple as!!