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Model Output Discussion - early October


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
15 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Just very quickly...where is shortwave steve!???

 

Don't you mean Nick Shortwave Sussex? 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well then, the GEFS 12Z ensembles definitely suggest a colder than average outlook. Though there does seem to be a discrepancy between the T850s' and 2m temps' places in their respective packs?:cc_confused:

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Methinks it might rain next Wednesday?:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T120:

image.thumb.jpg.cdb5db8194b8586e3292e2947af6164b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a01ef31c0375d440b31720e7092ca606.jpg

Cool.  It has been obvious that the initial high over Greenland will sink, as this run progresses, I'll be interested to see if it supports the GEM evolution to this at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.ba7f22297935746ddb21b5d7fd33df29.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
15 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

Don't you mean Nick Shortwave Sussex? 

Yeah...that's correct ..

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

With such two..on two ridges punching for freedom.@Pacific./@Atlantic domains..

 

And large lobe vortex looking for residential status @Siberia..

 

I'm almost feeling a tad sorry for the pv's dominant sourcing..

 

Yet smiling with my own personal want of gain!!

It's a real blow for the upper layers...And there usual points of slot!!!..

 

It's truly a good time for these exactions right on cue too!!!

 

Edit even a minamal upcoming ssw/strat heat increase...will make for an exception!!..

As things stand...

Yet to be noted!?!

Screenshot_2019-10-23-19-32-06.png

Screenshot_2019-10-23-19-31-59.png

ECH1-144.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Miles better EC, than the 00Z shocker, still FI though so 00Z thoughts may return, 00Z on right

ECM1-168.GIF?23-0ECM1-192.GIF?23-12

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hohum..

EC blows up the low in the Atlantic by day 8...

End of the run might not be pretty viewing..?

It can blow up all it wants in the mid Atlantic...the overheads into the longer term appear to be doing the damage...I'd take short term pain...for longer term gain...anyday...'especially' late October/-early November.

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hohum..

EC blows up the low in the Atlantic by day 8...

End of the run might not be pretty viewing..?

Not one of the gefs ens members blows this low out in the atlantic,should we bin it?

gens_panel_wnm0.thumb.png.046a762397ec30f9c7c40757cc324ee7.png

gefs ens mean

gensnh-21-1-192.thumb.png.1efe3bf04f75e760c205ede87c3d263f.png

and as Ed pointed out earlier(i know it's next weds)but there does seem to be a low parked SE of the uk on most of the members too producing a lot of ppn,but this is too far away to even consider forecasting. 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.fd4b2b46a04e1d6353c5c162b75a5f8e.jpg

I had asked the question would it follow GEM:

image.thumb.jpg.f7e5830f2a0efc5e8096b0c77667ccfa.jpg

Definitely going in that direction, I think this is a nice way for the tropospheric vortex to enter November...

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Be good to see a similar evolution over coming runs..- cross set-=

With that big low phrasing and syphoning the energy from that by then probable seaboard explosion..

Via transfer of vortice energy into the Atlantic..

While all the time we have gain...And yet further on the north eastern side of the hem...

 

There's -as per our visions of intrest..@Canada @seaboard ejection.

 

 

Let's pull the wall down this year!!!✊✊

ECH1-240.gif

ECM1-240.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Sst...And Nino index..

 

Maybe we'll worthy coming back to these in 2/3 weeks time..As they stand atm...for reference.

 

@wave drama

 

@airmass infer!!

 

#Although ENSO neautral!!!.

 

nino34.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
39 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The good news chaps is that the latest from cpc is as you were from last night's

610day_03.thumb.gif.67d2228142fda3e539b1db5b2700f06d.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.83868e9bb4941d381a7832dbd163e61a.gif

doesn't these NH anomalies look like a three pronged fidget spinner to you?

1652653228_Fidget_spinner_red_cropped.thumb.jpg.543e87f13c5ebefccff398f5d5e7cf62.jpg

 

 

I think thats what the ecm tries to do but takes the atlantic too far east!!maybe expect westward adjustments over the next few days

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
38 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Sst...And Nino index..

 

Maybe we'll worthy coming back to these in 2/3 weeks time..As they stand atm...for reference.

 

@wave drama

 

@airmass infer!!

 

#Although ENSO neautral!!!.

 

nino34.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Is that a tripole i see in the atlantic?

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
12 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yea doesn't look to far off one...

tripole.png

Untitled1.png

Well it is...

@Nino e3.4.=

Balancing!!!

 

With tropical overide...in exactly where I wanna see it..

#ssta

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Still looking Very wet for southern and southeast England tomorrow..

Dwd Icon. 

18_21_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.bfceec3eb35cfbe5d4e0ffe3cc78b01a.png

High rainfall totals for Wales northern England and the Midlands during Friday to Saturday evening this October definitely has bucked the trend of recent October's being a very wet one widely. 

Dwd Icon. 

18_81_ukprecipacc.thumb.png.d471618bfe35c2b9a136916a3ae10719.png

Arpege.. 

12_84_ukprecipratec_acc.thumb.png.09892d4499fdf39f9c6c6a5b92bc41f9.png

ECM unsettled in the longer term no doubt will change..Couple of those ensembles really want rain for our region some point next week? Going over halfway up the chart.. :shok:

EUROPE_PRMSL_240.jpg

495307221_ens_image(7).thumb.png.c853d126a0853a5db8cab8bb2674389a.png

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

As @Steve Murr @allseasons si.

 

Point..

We going to have some classic wave 3 activity throughout coming data..

And a tri strapped polar vortex..

Then I'd expect a clear splitting via momentum...

With hopefully..a Sharp grade of right side settlement!!!

gfsnh-0-120.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Screaming North Easterly not out the question here - although more likely to be a glancing blow - good run for cold prospects though - upgrade on 12z GFS.

image.thumb.png.c456ca6679ef5c7417ed1be489194a22.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

The devils work..

In 6's..

@three wave depicted

 

3 points of ridging..And =3 points of troughing!

On raw materials...the polar vortex..needs the Lord on its side..

Or it for-crucifixion!!=

 

gfsnh-0-210.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Without getting into...run 2 run 'hypodrive'..

The evolutions are talking themselves up..

With already a noted spike-in relax....And release of the more fridged upper thermo..

As momentum..And angle increase the atrifact for the desired effect...

 

November 'could' be on a level of what many didn't 'antisipate'!!!..

 

Keep watching!!!

gfsnh-1-240.png

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