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Model Output Discussion - early October


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
10 minutes ago, Doudounovic77 said:

Hi guys, I am new here, just discovered your forum. I am also a big weather enthusiast, mainly looking for strong wind and good dry and cold weather
Have you seen the last EC00 op? Showing high wind next 31st, seems like an outlier of the ensembles but hey, who knows... Moght get windy windy for Haloween !!
What do you think of that? 

 

ecmslp.192.png

Hiya welcome! :oldsmile: Yes that's very windy and would certainly be a chilly wind to say the least.. :cold:

GFS ensembles looking quite uncertain in the longer term.. But quite wet in the extended range again. 

 

ens_image (6).png

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

GFS snow predictions are way too broad brush to pay much, if any attention to. On the higher res modelling, it looks like the lowlands of Scotland and the north Pennines could be the sweet spot at the moment.

lowlands.png lyingsnow.png

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11 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Hiya welcome! :oldsmile: Yes that's very windy and would certainly be a chilly wind to say the least.. :cold:

GFS ensembles looking quite uncertain in the longer term.. But quite wet in the extended range again. 

 

ens_image (6).png

Thanks
Not that chilly if we look at EC temp no?

But yeah, this end of next week looks quite uncertain, for both temp and wind... The only thing is that it should be wet!

Wet and see what will happen ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Don't know whether this has already been mentioned but, the Euro4 model is now on Meteociel -

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine EURO4 0.04° du UK MetOffice (météo angaise) sur 5 zones (France, Nord-Ouest, Nord-Est...


High resolution model that runs out to +52 hours. I believe it's one that the pros look at for short range detail.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

Unfortunately the only trend i see at the minute with the models for next week is trending away from the settled conditions they were showing Mon/Tues?‍?. Need them to flip the other way again on 12z......

 

image.thumb.png.8b9b3e3ee623a2492aca090b2b212b9b.png that spoiler low from ecm this mornings run

image.thumb.png.b738e80c05a60baed80fa2eebb477788.pngnow icon making more of it early on to

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

ICON ramping up the rainfall total's Friday/Saturday again. Widely 50-60mm of rain for the Midlands and Wales. 80mm or so over hills. 24 hours or so of continuous rainfall for some.

iconeu_uk1-25-77-0_jvo3.png

Aperge not too dissimilar but with the core of the largest rainfall amounts a little further south and including the South West.

arpegeuk-25-102-0_igu7.png

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

Going by the 0z Ecm run with the exception of next Wednesday and Thursday the overall picture doesn't look overly unsettled. In fact the day 10 chart would suggest a relatively settled picture with a recovery in daytime temps and less in the way of overnight frost as the high slips gradually south. Could all look totally different again of course come the 12z such is the nature of our weather.

ecm 30 oct 19.JPG

ecm 31 oct 19.JPG

ecm 1 nov 19.JPG

ecm 2 nov 19.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Latest gfs o6z backs the ukmo and ecm and gives us that cold frosty week next week!!latest icon seems to have gone off on one again and has the high further east again!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean hasn't downgraded from last night's 12z, it's still indicating a colder increasingly settled spell next week with cold uppers remaining intact from the initial northerly flow, especially further north with widespread frosts so at least it would feel crisp / seasonal. 

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
41 minutes ago, booferking said:

Unfortunately the only trend i see at the minute with the models for next week is trending away from the settled conditions they were showing Mon/Tues?‍?. Need them to flip the other way again on 12z......

 

image.thumb.png.8b9b3e3ee623a2492aca090b2b212b9b.png that spoiler low from ecm this mornings run

image.thumb.png.b738e80c05a60baed80fa2eebb477788.pngnow icon making more of it early on to

That low could trend south as we get to day 5 and stay dry and cool / cold..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

GFS looking good at 174, that trough over Canada is moving a lot slower, could be a stonker this one.

image.thumb.png.f648652be0f32873a0d42aafd01ebb17.png

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
10 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

That low could trend south as we get to day 5 and stay dry and cool / cold..

That would be the plan for sure..

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Hard to really make any accurate forecasts at the moment. Just look at this:

image.thumb.png.d90a3c02a3c055de204cefa40988064d.png

It literally could be anything.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Hard to really make any accurate forecasts at the moment. Just look at this:

image.thumb.png.d90a3c02a3c055de204cefa40988064d.png

It literally could be anything.

Post of the week.....

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Seems as if the GFS 06Z Operational has taken to trundling along at the coldest side of the GEFS ensembles, once again...?

prmslLondon.png    t850London.png

t2mLondon.png    prcpLondon.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Now here we are....that mean-continues to grab a stranglehold of its members...dragging them down like the nagging wife..on the ill fated husband!!!

 

And that eye catching cold pool deepens-and expands!!

 

So the crucial overall viewing Must be..

Warm air advection to the north western quadrant!!=and into the polar points!!!!

temp4 (5).png

MT8_London_ens (13).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Expect the gfs 12z to join the slightly warmer cluster later!!nearly every other perturbation backs the control with a low cutting through the uk between 144 and 168 hours!!maybe ecm was on to something this morning!!the good thing is it looks like we get atlantic   height rises   behind the low!!hopefully we get those heights more into greenland!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

To-add..upper dynamics..also painting a favourable picture....

In terms of exaction of pressure points...

And cold incurance..

 

We are as it stands....in a good place!!!

 

 

Even as we stride into the new month (November)=

@top snap

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65 (1).png

gfs-ens_z500a_eus_35.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Seems as if the GFS 06Z Operational has taken to trundling along at the coldest side of the GEFS ensembles, once again...?

prmslLondon.png    t850London.png

t2mLondon.png    prcpLondon.png

Indeed and it's doing it for my neck of the woods too. It seems to have been a theme the past few days, GFS op run often trending colder and pulling the suite down as @tight isobar alludes to  I'm quietly confident of a colder regime setting in for a while.

gefsens850Warsaw_Poland0 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

these are some pretty cold temps across the NH for so early in the season

gfs_T2m_nhem_65.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The cold runs keep on coming, the 6z ensembles had a fair amount of cold shots amongst them. A familiar pattern for a fair few days now! Decent shout at some colder Conditions moving into November at this stage... Long may it continue. 

gens-1-0-276.png

gens-2-0-360.png

gens-2-1-360.png

gens-3-0-384.png

gens-4-0-288.png

gens-5-0-348.png

gens-11-0-372.png

gens-15-0-348.png

gensbc-15-1-348.png

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

That's the problem will it continue when it can affect the majority of the population mid-nov onwards is normally the time when snow can affect the most of the UK.

Nice though to see a blocked pattern early in the season,how long will it last though

 

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Not quite sure where to put this so it's going here! But look at the bottom right hand corner - a "Medicane" with all the (eye wall!) features of a (admittedly weak) tropical cyclone off the coasts of Egypt, Gaza and Israel. Truly ridiculous - local forecasts suggesting almost 300mms+ of rain off the Haifa coast (Israel) by Saturday. Anyone in the region going desert hiking should be warned: flash flooding is almost a certainty if this comes off...

image.png

image.thumb.png.409a082b0266707b0a8fece7fc17f041.png

Edited by ITSY
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