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Model Output Discussion - early October


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

For whatever reason, GFS is making quite a bit more of the eastern LP in the N Atlantic on D6 than any of ECM, UKMO, JMA, GEM and ICON.

So, it’s the only one that diverts the northerly flow away from the UK for D6+.

Go figure 

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just shows you how poor the GFS for precipitation type - that is showing snow for a huge chunk of N England, at least 50% of that area covered by snow falling is well below 1000ft, it has me down for snow when it is most likely going to be 9c at the time.

Yes. A blanket prediction but hey it’s only a generic computer model. Mountaineering wise up here we know what “bits” get the proverbial dumping. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Looking at the short term -  still plenty of time for the models to play around with the position and path of the projected low pressure and frontal feature due to move into the UK Friday.  It may correct on a more southerly path, thanks to a more pronounced polar airstream digging down and undercutting it.. midlands/peak district southwards (I'm hoping so from an imby perspective it stays away for a good proportion of Friday at least here, to get a good day's fell walking in).. it can arrive later in the day.

Beyond, ensembles and models mainly in agreement for a more settled chilly spell with heights building to the NW, frost and fog and below average temps to see October out.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Whisper it quietly, Matt and Jon...but I think it's going to snow???:yahoo::oldgrin:?️

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

That convergence line really is weather chart porn, it's beautiful!

viewimage.thumb.png.8584271ae79ca8ff4ab22fc4fdb41887.png

Would be some incredible rainfall rates along that line..

It would be even more so though if it was further into winter and it was all snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It would be even more so though if it was further into winter and it was all snow.

True but there's plenty of time for weather systems like this to cross during the winter time although these tend to be marginal even in winter. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

ECM ens are not bad if you like cold weather at all, remember its late Oct / Early Nov, a good number of members with MAX temps of 5c and min close to freezing, not too many very warm members, remember these are for London so other areas likely to be colder, the daytime average temps for nOv as a whole must be around 10c for London for Nov and this is early Nov.

image.thumb.png.2b149e3585226761bf7fbf574925eedb.png

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

still looking  very wet for the middle of the uk at the weekend plenty of rain!

gfs-2-66.png

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Arpege seems to have followed Gem's and Icon's update from yesterday bringing the deep low in on Friday with the cold front straddling across England and Wales linked to the low pressure system out in the Atlantic feeding a conveyor belt of continous heavy rain with hill snow for northern parts for 18-24 hours in some areas showing the rain only clearing during Saturday night..

Arpege's latest update.. 

00_60_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.0cafa537ee927a020ce706922fa6ffdb.png

1732897655_00_66_ukpreciptype(1).thumb.png.977bfd1e9a3f2560d0702f89d54a88cd.png

00_72_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.2211ee55c546bff13d31b58c48a2f1ed.png

00_79_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.fd1b7efdce299bdd8afd4245c0e19023.png

00_86_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.f326420ed99eb49dfc2219ab0cf8fd85.png

00_88_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.8a7f553c9252660c626295fea4b9a425.png

00_92_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.702c07bff1cc036bedbadb06b591c6b7.png

Dwd's evening output yesterday.. 

18_84_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.1785ae11bae0e2b5ea980ca55bb6e10e.png

18_87_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.e5489f61eadf21c28d0e5eb14849131d.png

18_90_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.448f835f5d51619bf5379ff7b7f7ebfa.png

Still alot of uncertainty with the precise alignment of the weather front associated with this vigorous wave depression with this morning's Icon update going with more the Gfs solution of keeping this deep low as a more separate system thus rain clearing faster during Friday night.. 

00_63_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.f13825d450d15aaa129e2f017bfb76cf.png

00_81_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.7d989996e9281db4b537eacc1ec3ad35.png

overall the arpege has trended south though in line with what most other models are showing.. Winds very strong across the country during Friday evening..

00_70_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.a48d44ee5c196e361b996e6d7c4078e2.png

Sizeable accumulations too for much of the country if this run verifies. 

00_94_ukprecipratec_acc.thumb.png.4df049004408e5779aa3082fa793a501.png

Whether the Arpege's got a good handle on this is unclear obviously but By tonight they should all be in general agreement I think.. :unknw:Apologies for the long post. :oldgood:

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
1 hour ago, tinybill said:

still looking  very wet for the middle of the uk at the weekend plenty of rain!

gfs-2-66.png

Could that be wet snow on the back edge for Sotland / N England over the weekend ?

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
7 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

It will mate ;)

Has it?am too scared to look !!just looked and it has indeed backed down!!!!high is further west and more in line with the other models!

Edited by shaky
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Hints of a deep Scandi LP on today's GFS 00Z Operational (T+384)...? Better there than near Greenland!:yahoo:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Meanwhile, the upcoming cold snap is gaining ensemble-support; but, judging from the T850s, most of any snow looks like being confined to hilly areas:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

And of course, as ever, lower parts of Highland Scotland may get lucky????????

t2mHighland.png   t850Highland.png

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

This precipitation type and intensity forecast from the gfs looks colourful albeit won't look it when it's happening unless your on top of the pennines getting a little hill snow..if it comes off ofcourse. :oldlaugh:

00_63_preciptype_old.thumb.png.c2a06377357d3faa099bd05f80f5f7aa.png

00_66_preciptype_old.thumb.png.93a48f8603497a9a450926abe712aeaf.png

00_69_preciptype_old.thumb.png.6bc2e65806a9aa9e1c2d3bea9f244ce3.png

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Hi guys, I am new here, just discovered your forum. I am also a big weather enthusiast, mainly looking for strong wind and good dry and cold weather
Have you seen the last EC00 op? Showing high wind next 31st, seems like an outlier of the ensembles but hey, who knows... Moght get windy windy for Haloween !!
What do you think of that? 

 

ecmslp.192.png

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